Archive for August 21st, 2007

Filed under: Consumer experience, Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO)

In one of the bigger, brighter stars recently for Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), the Internet giant has seemingly won one against larger rival Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). In a recent American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) report, Yahoo! took home first place in customer satisfaction, beating the more financially successful and larger Google.

Now, the term “customer service” can span many areas and can be hard to define, but the ACSI report published by the University of Michigan rated areas like search engines, online news, e-commerce transactions and other areas across a span of 70,000 Internet customers. The results? Yahoo! took home the top spot at a time when the company is seen as struggling mightily against Google and a resurgent Microsoft, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT).

Yahoo!’s rating was 79 out of 100, with Google scoring a 78 (a drop of 3 points form last year). Yahoo!’s recent well-publicized troubles will at least get a break with this one and will allow the Sunnyvale, Ca. company to toot its trumpet for a while. An interesting twist is that of Google, whose 3-point drop was the largest since this specific ACSI survey began in 2000. Are Google customers becoming more dissatisfied every year with the services it provides or is this a temporary blip for the Mountain View, Ca. company?

From where I sit, Google still proves much more popular on almost every front compared to Yahoo!, with most of its services being free and highly reliable, in addition to being easy to use. But Yahoo! has made quite a stride here and it appears devoted Yahoo! customers are quite satisfied with the company even if the market is not.

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Filed under: Consumer experience, Blogs, Apple Inc (AAPL), Define investing, Crocs Inc (CROX), Bargain stocks, Chasing Value

In the past couple of weeks, investors, traders and company managements have probably used a little different “F” word with the market volatility. The word I have used for over 20 years when we have encountered these types of markets is FUD.

FUD stands for fear–uncertainty and doubt. FUD makes the world–okay maybe not the world, but the markets go round. Typically, in stable markets investors like the status quo: earnings come in as expected, stock nudges up and everyone sleeps well. Life is good, markets are good. Just when you least expect it–here comes FUD!!

The fear is will we ever see profits again? Will my stocks make their earnings expectations or will guidance go way down crushing their valuations? Will the Federal Reserve wake up and absolve us of all past sins?

Uncertainty is can this market really go up again? Can companies make numbers and be optimistic? Should I be in US Treasury securities because they are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the US Government? Will other major world markets follow our lead and continue melting as well?

Doubt is I will never be caught again in a high price-earnings stock. Doubt is I will never listen to another talking head on TV or radio. Doubt is I will buy gold coins and stuff them under my mattress because gold is still the world’s precious metal…right?

Historically, FUD is when level headed investors make good moves. The type of moves where 6 to 12 months later the FUD sufferers exclaim “why didn’t I think of that?” Or “man, that stock was oversold and cheap as hell. Where was I?”.

Remember waaaay back to February/March of this year when we saw a market meltdown because of the “China” scare? Great names got taken down because bad markets take down the good names with the bad names. Opportunity knocked and those that had sworn off FUD, having been through FUD treatment, bought some great names at cheap prices.For example, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) fell from the high $90’s to the low $80s and Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) fell from the high $20’s to the low $20’s.

This market is different!! Yeah, I know I have heard this a lot, but businesses are built to grow and at the end of the day that’s exactly what happens. Markets weather tough storms, take on water, but eventually sort themselves out. Quality companies are still quality companies and quality attracts capital. It’s always been that way and always will…

So check yourself and ask if you are suffering from FUD? TV news shows love FUD sufferers and even contribute to it…

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research and the author of Stop Losing Money Today.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Technical Analysis

Club-style retailer BJ’s Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) - placing third in the overall membership-warehouse game behind Costco (NYSE: COST) and Wal-Mart’s (NYSE: WMT) Sam’s Club - is the leading retailer of its kind in the New England region.

As Michael reported this morning, BJ issued second-quarter net income of $36.3 million, a 37% jump from previous-year results. Excluding various items and charges, the company would have banked 46 cents per share, a nickel better than analysts were expecting. Sales were on par with Wall Street’s consensus view, up 8% at $2.25 billion.

The stock gapped higher out of the gate and gained as much as 5.4% at its intraday peak (reached around 2:45 p.m.). But recently familiar late-day selling pressure set in, and BJ closed with a gain of just under 3.0%. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, the stock did fail to top its 20-day moving average, which the shares had managed to hurdle earlier in the session. This descending short-term trendline has worked in tandem with the equity’s 10-day to guide the stock lower since July 20. During this one-month period, the shares have unraveled by about 15%.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

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Filed under: Products and services, Consumer experience, Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP)

While the sweetest of soft drinks may now be off limits in high-school vending machines, some hip new options may soon be available to the nation’s students.

In May 2006, the beverage industry voluntarily agreed to stop selling full-calorie sodas in schools. The agreement stated that companies could sell milk, water, diet sodas, sports drinks, and unsweetened and low-calorie juices.

The industry has now expanded this list to include additional beverages meeting the criterion of fewer than 100 calories per 12 ounces. Certain flavored iced teas and vitamin-flavored waters fit the bill. Most varieties of Glaceau VitaminWater, a recent acquisition of Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), have 75 calories or less. The same is true for the various flavors of SoBe LifeWater, owned by PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP).

Continue reading High school vending machines getting more eclectic

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Filed under: Market matters, Countrywide Financial (CFC), Nordstrom, Inc (JWN), Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH), Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Videos

The stock market has stabilized somewhat in recent days, but I still have a very pessimistic outlook for stocks, as I explain in this video. I think stocks could fall another 25%.

I am deeply worried about the financials, like mortgage company Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) and high-end consumer stocks like Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE: JWN).

Nonetheless, I think there are opportunities in some niche plays. I advise investors with cash to put in the market to take a look at electric utility Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (NYSE: PNW), ballbearing company Kaydon Corporation (NYSE: KDN), and bridge builder Chicago Bridge & Iron Company N.V (NYSE: CBI).

Internationally, I suggest looking to China plays like Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (ADR) (NYSE: ACH) and global environmental plays like Veolia Environment (ADR) (NYSE: VE). Finally, I offer a stock tip: Darling International Inc. (ASE: DAR) is a little-known environmental company which gets paid to collect waste like animal by-products and cooking grease and turns it into biodeisel which it then sells. Enjoy the video!

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As I was cruising on the 405 this weekend fighting off the 93 degree humid weather, something was stickier than the air and that was the new message being spouted off over the airwaves pertaining to the housing market. Like listening to a compulsive liar, at this point I am amused at what is being presented as investment advice. The stock market seems pacified with the Fed’s actions even though

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Filed under: Press releases, Products and services, Launches, Apple Inc (AAPL), Best Buy (BBY), Media World

Rolling Stones tongue logoBillboard.biz announced this morning that the Rolling Stones are set to make their EMI (OTC: EMIPY) catalog available digitally without Digital Rights Management technology. 7digital, a London-based online store, will be the first to offer the catalog, which includes 24 albums between 1971 and 2005 at the “high-quality 320 kbps rate.” The band’s pre-1971 catalog is managed by Universal Music Group, and the same announcement cites that the company does not intend to offer its part despite the DRM-free testing the company has begun.

7digital will offer the albums for a lowered price for four weeks, before the price returns to normal and the exclusivity ends presumably, though a few of the albums are already available in Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes Plus store. The tracks from 7digital will also be playable on a number of devices, not simply iPods, but other MP3 players, cell phones and even PDAs according to Billboard’s report.

The catalog from EMI opens one of the largest the company holds, and the Rolling Stones will certainly find old and new listeners cheering as their successful Bigger Bang tour closes with three nights at London’s 02 Arena. The tour has already sparked an exclusive DVD set from Best Buy (NYSE: BBY). All that is left to wonder now is whether a new live album is in the works, a la 2004’s Live Licks, which peaked at #50 in the Billboard 200. Another deal with Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) would certainly hit well; 2005’s Rarities peaked at a nice #76.

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Filed under: Google (GOOG)

Google Inc (Nasdaq: GOOG)’s YouTube is not the only popular video destination. For example, there is Metacafe, which has more than 25 million unique monthly viewers.

In fact, the company has announced a $30 million found of venture capital from Highland Capital Partners, DAG Ventures, Accel Partners and Benchmark Capital.

Metacafe has built strong community features and also has developed regional versions of the site. It’s known as “audience-driven programming.”

I had a chance to interview Chase Norlin, who is the founder and CEO of Pixsy (a multimedia search engine). According to him:

“The Metacafe funding makes perfect sense and sends a signal to the market that they’re really going for it in the shadow of YouTube. Their prospects look good given they’re clearly one of the top 3 players in that category. Paying out users via their Producers program makes a lot of sense; the real question is, how big is the customer generated content market and is there an upcoming saturation of viral video on the web? Given their large audience, the model bodes well if they can make inroads in semipro and professional quality content.”

Also, if you want to check out more venture capital fundings, click here.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Filed under: Launches, Best Buy (BBY)

Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) just can’t let a week go by without announcing some corporate initiative that grabs headlines. Let’s add one to the top of the pile: the largest consumer electronics retailer in the U.S. says that is wants to begin building new stores using “green” concepts soon. These new stores will use environmentally friendly energy strategies to cut down on power consumption, with a goal of cutting energy use in these stores by a third. Stores with the new design would be opened sometime in the second half of 2008, according to Best Buy officials.

That’s no small amount. A 33% reduction in power consumption for large-format retail stores not only will save Best Buy money over the long term, but will help the under-strain power grids in parts of the U.S. Now, Best Buy is not the only retailer to have a “green” store strategy. General merchandise retailers Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) also have in-place green strategies as well, from in-store lighting to eco-friendly packaging requirements from its suppliers.

Where is Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) when a good piece of PR is needed, though? Nowhere to be found, apparently. Circuit City is trying to imitate Best Buy’s success but has not come close to exactly replicating it. If the retailer wanted some good press coverage for a change, it could replicate Best Buy’s strategy here and look into energy-efficient lighting, buildings made from recycled materials (if it ever opens new stores), and new day-lighting systems that don’t waste energy during daytime hours. But then again, Best Buy is making adjustments to existing stores to bring them more into the “green.” Can Circuit City follow behind that one? Mr. Schoonover should consider it.

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Filed under: Altria Group (MO), Options

UST (NYSE: UST) volatility Flat; UST down 6%; Altria Group (NYSE: MO) testing Marlboro Moist Smokeless tobacco. UST, a leading producer and marketer of moist smokeless tobacco products (Skoal, Copenhagen), is recently down $3.06 to $48.91. MO announced the introduction of Marlboro Moist Smokeless tobacco into test market. MO had been frequently mentioned as possibly interested in UST. UST has a market cap of $7.7 billion with quarterly March 2007 total revenue of $447 million. UST September option implied volatility of 26 is near its 26-week average of 23 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Forest Labs (NYSE: FRX) volatility Elevated on patent challenge Appeal. FRX, a U.S. based pharmaceutical company, is recently down .48 to $37.74. FRX’s Lexapro, an antidepressant accounting for 66% of FRX total revenue, is facing a patent challenge appeal.Buckingham Research says “LXP patent challenge appeal which we would expect to be resolved from an appellate decision over the next few months (we expect FRX to prevail in this case).” FRX call option volume of 9,195 contracts compares to put volume of 4,571 contracts. FRX September option implied volatility of 70 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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