Filed under: Oracle Corp (ORCL), Options

BEA Systems (NYSE: BEAS), received a proposal on 10/12/07 from Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) to be acquired for $17 a share in cash. ORCL announced on 10/23, “ORCL has no interest in a long, drawn-out process to acquire BEAS. BEAS said on 10/26, ORCL $17 per share proposal is unacceptable. Carl Icahn, the largest shareholder of BEAS, holding over 58 million BEAS shares and equivalents, said on 10/26 BEAS should allow its shareholders to decide the fate of BEAS by conducting an auction process and BEAS should not agree to dilute voting by issuing stock, entrench management of derail a sale of BEAS. BEAS said today, 10/29, we are not opposed to an acquisition of the company. In fact, we are currently exploring ways to maximize shareholder value, including the possible sale of the company. Smith Barney says, “We continue to think the likelihood of BEAS being acquired remains high, although the process and the timeframe are unclear a point.” BEAS call option volume of 33,577 contracts compares to put volume of 8,064 contracts. BEAS December & January option implied volatility of 38 is near its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, RadioShack Corp (RSH)

Radio Shack Corp. (NYSE: RSH) reported net quarterly income of $46.3 million this morning ($0.34 per share) compared to a year-ago net loss of $16.3 million ($0.12 per share) as the company continued digging itself out of a hole under new CEO Julian Day. It was good to see the gadget and accessory retailer reverse its 2006 loss from the same quarter a year ago, but the revenue numbers didn’t do as well. The retailer saw a 9.4% decline in its most recent quarter, to the tune of just over $960 million as same-store sales fell 8.6% from the year-ago quarter.

In other words, the cuts and restructuring Day has put in place — which were sorely needed — seemed to have worked in the latest quarter, although sales slumped pretty badly. It’s been said that any competent CEO can slash costs and tell his or her troops to find cuts, but only the long-term leader can take the reins when that ends and grow sales and revenue beyond the cost-cutting stage. Day has not had enough time to really progress that far, but his number is coming up soon.

Analyst estimates were for a $990 million quarter with an EPS of $0.26, so the retailer did beat earnings estimates for the quarter (though not revenue estimates). An interesting factoid for the retailer’s just-completed quarter: gross margin improved to 51% while selling, general and administrative expenses declined 13%. Now, that is cost cutting if I’ve ever seen it. Still, Day referenced the retailer’s weakness in gaining commissions on post-paid wireless customers. Radio Shack still relies on cellular sales as a large part of its business, in my opinion. Is the company a retailer or a wireless reseller? Estimates peg about 15% of revenue at Radio Shack coming from wireless sales (specifically, those from Sprint Nextel). That’s almost a fifth — and way too large for comfort when a retailer is joined at the hip of a cellular carrier that’s having severe ups and downs.

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Google (GOOG), Wal-Mart (WMT), Technical Analysis, Western Union (WU), Stocks to Buy

Do you know which company introduced the first consumer charge card? No? It also introduced the first successful stock ticker and was one of the original eleven stocks in the Dow Jones Average. Still no? What if I say that it completed the first transcontinental telegraph line across North America? Now you have it! Of course, the telegram is a memory.

Western Union Company (NYSE: WU) provides a range of money transfer and bill payment services worldwide. Its consumer-to-consumer operations involve multi-currency and real-time processing systems for walk-in, online, and telephone money transfers. Its consumer-to-business operations enable payments to utilities, auto finance companies, mortgage servicers, financial service providers, and governmental agencies. The firm also offers money order products and advance payment services. Western Union does business through a network of more than 320,000 locations, in over 200 countries and territories.

Investors were pleased last week, when the company reported Q3 EPS of 30 cents and revenues of $1.26 billion. The Street had been looking for 28 cents and $1.26 billion. D.A. Davidson subsequently upgraded the shares to “buy,” noting improved business in Mexico and optimism over newer relationships with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). Management also guided FY07 EPS to $1.11-$1.13, versus consensus of $1.08. The share price popped on the news and then moved into a bullish “flag” consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Continue reading Western Union shares forming a bullish “flag” pattern

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Industry

Toshiba Corp. (OTC: TOSBF) saw quarterly operating profit increase of 38% for its latest quarter, due to increases in the sale of flash memory chips and nuclear power plants, according to the Japanese electronics conglomerate. Toshiba is the world’s second-largest maker of flash memory chips (the NAND design) behind South Korean competitor Samsung Electronics, and such a large quarterly increase be a telltale sign for the consumer electronics industry.

For example, the storage needs of the world continue to explode every year, but more and more of that insatiable need is being requested by consumers instead of corporate data centers. The form of storage, though, is required to be portable, energy-efficient and super-tiny (think Apple iPod Nano). The solution? NAND flash storage, where Toshiba is a huge player. Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPod line (not the larger, hard drive-based units) and almost every cellphone sold worldwide use some kind of NAND flash storage. As cellphones continue displacing landline phones and grow in capability with portable video and audio players, my guess is that NAND manufacturers will see even brighter days than they have already seen.

Now, here’s the sticky part: Toshiba expects NAND prices to fall about 20% in the October-December quarter as the annual price decline continues in that market. Add an annual 50% price decline into the picture and it could strike some as odd. It’s not — this is standard operating procedure considering the supply-demand dynamic taking place. In addition to the red-hot NAND market, Toshiba’s division responsible for nuclear reactor building (that’s a change, no?) expects an operating profit for the year to come in at over $2.54 billion. Toshiba’s largest competitor in that commercial space is General Electric (NYSE: GE).

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Filed under: Commodities, Oil

With the markets in a choppy consolidation mode, it’s best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio. Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) is worth a review.

Hess’s 68% organic reserve replacement is sub-par but most other fundamentals are favorable. In general, analysts see decent-to-good production increases, and reasonable operating costs, but the value driver here, of course, is gasoline refining, energy marketing, and retail gasoline sales (including 1,350 Hess gasoline stations). A liquefied natural gas joint venture also adds to the mix. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for HES are $5.72/$6.24.

Hess is not as well-known or as large as its oil industry counterparts, but in the era of elevated oil prices, and barely-adequate U.S. refinery capacity, particularly for gasoline, those two data points can be overlooked. Moreover, in general oil stocks are not a defensive play, strictly speaking, but the bias here is toward adding an oil stock or two, given current market conditions, as there’s little empirical evidence to suggest that the era of elevated oil prices will end anytime soon.

Continue reading Hess (HES): Big Oil’s lower-profile play

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Bad news, Products and services, Kellogg Co (K)

Leading cereal company Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K) said Monday that third-quarter earnings rose 9%, thanks in large part to rising international sales. In its latest reporting period, the maker of Frosted Flakes, Nutri-Grain bars, Cheez-It crackers and Keebler cookies and crackers banked $305 million, or 76 cents per share, up from year-ago results of $281 million (70 cents per share). Analysts were expecting the firm to earn 73 cents per share.

Revenue jumped 6% during the quarter to $3 billion, edging past analysts’ revenue target of $2.99 billion. Net sales in North America were up 3% as consumers scooped up frozen foods and specialty items. Cereal sales were unchanged amid higher-than-normal inventories. International net sales jumped 5%, with trends especially strong in the Latin-American region.

This positive earnings surprise transpired despite a backdrop of rising wheat, corn, dairy, and fuel prices that have challenged the food industry and spurred a broad price hike. In response, K has increased its prices by 1.8% for the 12 weeks ended October 6, compared with a 3.2% year-over-year price lift as of October 6.

Continue reading Kellogg’s earnings: They’re (kind of) grrreat!

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Filed under: Internet, Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO), China, Initial public offerings, Technology

The IPO of Alibaba, the large Chinese e-commerce site, may show that the China stock markets are topping. The company appears to have raised $1.5 billion for about 17% of the company. This is good news for Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), which invested a billion dollars in the site, but it could also make the US portal look bad. If the China market moves down before Yahoo! can off-load some of those shares, its initial investment in the company may not look like a coup.

The astonishing thing about the Alibaba IPO is that, according to The New York Times, “the I.P.O. price translates to a multiple of 55 times its forecast 2008 earnings.” The number serves to point out the fact that, even with its economy growing at 10% a year, sustaining P/Es at this level will become impossible, as it did in the Japanese markets and US internet stocks in late 1990s. Both of those bubbles led to corrections of more than 50%.

The Shanghai Composite Index is now up well over 200% this year. The bull argument for an ongoing increase is that the emerging China middle class needs a place to invest its money and cannot move that capital into overseas equities. That makes the market overly dependent on one set of buyers.

Continue reading Does Alibaba’s IPO mean China’s markets have peaked?

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Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst initiations

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Thomas Properties, Tanga Resource Partners, ARM Holdings, Finlay Enterprises and Coca-Cola Femsa were today’s noteworthy initiations:

• Shares of Thomas Properties Group Inc (NASDAQ: TPGI) were initiated with a Neutral rating and $14 target at Banc of America. The firm has concerns over the lack of liquidity in the shares and considerable insider ownership levels.
• RBC Capital started shares of Targa Resource Partners LP (NASDAQ: NGLS) with an Outperform rating and $35 target, as they expect shares recover once financing is in place.
• Jefferies started shares of ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMHY) with a Buy rating, citing the company’s new products, margin leverage, buybacks and royalties ramp.
• Finlay Enterprises Inc (NASDAQ: FNLY) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $4.80 target at B. Riley, citing integration and execution risks.
• Coca-Cola Femsa SA (NYSE: KOF) was started with a Buy rating at Gabelli, as they find the valuation attractive as the company’s growth in key markets of , , and continues.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• KeyBanc Capital initiated Education Realty Trust Inc (NYSE: EDR) with a Hold rating.
• Fox-Pitt started Rodman & Renshaw Capital Group Inc (NASDAQ: RODM) with an Outperform rating.
• Home Inns & Hotels Management Inc (NASDAQ: HMIN) was initiated with a Negative rating at Susquehanna.
• First Analysis resumed coverage of PharmaNet Development Group Inc (NASDAQ: PDGI) with an Equal Weight rating.

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Filed under: Industry, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Employees, Private equity

After some nervous moments in the last three weeks, representatives of the United Automobile Workers (UAW) union agreed to a new four-year labor contract with Chrysler, now owned by private capital group Cerberus Capital. The deal guarantees future work to much of Chrysler’s workforce and hopefully puts to rest the October 10th six-hour walkout that’s still fresh on the UAW’s mind.

In reaching an agreement with Chrysler, the largest automotive union now can look forward to negotiating a deal with Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), as deals with General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler are now complete and in the books. The agreed-upon contract with Chrysler finally gained support at the plants that mattered, including the four larger Detroit-area car factories. Although some of the voting plants, such as a plant in Belvidere, Illinois, still had issues with the contract, the majority votes were enough to give it ratification as of late this weekend.

According to the UAW, roughly 56% of hourly workers and 51% of skilled trades workers approved the agreement as of this past Saturday evening. That’s not a huge sweep of approval, but it was enough to put the negotiations to bed for the next four years.

At least for the next four years, Chrysler’s union employees will have some sense of security as the automaker struggles to return to consistent positive performance under the ownership of a private set of investors. With Ford up next — and obviously feeling pressure to mold a new agreement in the vein of the recent GM and Chrysler contracts — the UAW still has its greatest test ahead.

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Filed under: Office Depot (ODP), OfficeMax Inc (OMX), Options

Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) — volatility up into delay of 3Q EPS on audit committee review. ODP announced the delay of third quarter EPS due to an independent review by the audit committee of the company’s vendor program funds. ODP is recently trading at $18.60 in pre-open trading, below its close of $20.29. ODP had 1,186 retail stores in North America and another 369 stores owned, licensed or franchised in other parts of the world as of June 30, 2007. ODP November option implied volatility of 56 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

FMC Corp (NYSE: FMC) was trading at $59.19 in pre-open trading, above its close of $53.81. Barron’s reported “FMC still looks like a tempting target for one of the big rivals or a private-equity shop.” FMC is a diversified global chemical company with a market cap of $4 billion. FMC is expected to report EPS on 10/31. FMC November option implied of 33 is above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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