Filed under: Rumors

One of my favorite Jim Cramer-isms is “Commandment No. 5″ — Tips are for waiters. Here’s what he writes:

You know that the best moves are takeovers and you are convinced that if you can catch one, it will make up for all the bum steers and bad bets you have made. Tips are winning lottery tickets in most people’s eyes.

That’s the reason I’ve had to default to a simple analogy, tips are for waiters, to remind myself how stupid tips really are. Does it occur to you, on hearing the tip, that if the person telling you that Nokia is going to buy RIM really knows that’s going to happen, the person is an insider and is breaking the law, and you could get in trouble, too? Does it occur to you that if the person isn’t an insider, he doesn’t know? There simply is no way a tip like that can work. Leave it for the waiter.

That’s what investors should be keeping in mind as they watch shares of E*Trade (NASDAQ: ETFC) surge on extraordinarily vague takeover rumors. Shares were up as much as 25% on rumors that Schwab and Ameritrade were interested in buying the beleaguered broker. Where did these rumors come from? Ah, yes. “A source.” And who’s to say that “the source” isn’t some clown holding a ton of E*Trade shares that he needs to get rid of — for 25% more than they were trading before the rumor?

Everyone knows E*Trade could be in play — any time a stock tanks that much, there are always going to rumors. But no one really knows what’s going on, and buying E*Trade on the rumor is just mindless speculation.

As Doug McIntyre wrote, “E*Trade may be worth over $5, but it could also be worth a lot less.”

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Filed under: Products and services, Television, Marketing and advertising, Walt Disney (DIS)

This post is part of our Hottest Products of 2007 feature. Also check out our other Hottest Products of 2007 posts and let us know which product you think is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Maybe I am getting old, but when I hear the name Hannah Montana, I think stripper, not wildly popular Disney (NYSE: DIS) Channel show.

But as countless parents of countless girls will tell you, Hannah Montana isn’t just a TV show, it’s a lifestyle dedicated to the character played by the spunky 15-year-old Miley Cyrus. There are Hannah Montana DVDs, books, cake decorations, and toys. Oh, let’s not forget a concert tour where tickets sell for several hundred bucks a pop. A woman who joined the official Miley Cyrus fan club in the hopes of getting tickets before they went on sale filed a lawsuit after she wasn’t able to get them.

Before I watched my first Hannah Montana episode, I decided to check in with two experts: my nieces. “It’s the best show on the Disney Channel,” said Danielle, 11. “Miley Cyrus is a great actress,” said Allison, 9. With those endorsements, I took my first steps into a world I knew little about.

Continue reading Hottest Products of 2007: How did Hannah Montana become ‘hot’?

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Filed under: Consumer experience, Television, Marketing and advertising

On the new personal finance site we’re about to launch, I’m contemplating doing a series called “Why Would Anyone Buy That” as a special weekly place to highlight all those consumer products that people buy and I don’t understand why.

A soundtrack to The Weather Channel would seem like a pretty good place to start. Weather Channel Presents: Best of Smooth Jazz, released in October, seems like a sure candidate for the discount rack. But, actually, the eight Amazon.com customers who have reviewed it have generally been kind, giving it an average of 4.5 out of 5 stars.

According to the Associated Press, “The songs are among the channel’s most requested selections and play during the forecast fixture ‘Local on the 8s’ that airs six times an hour. It’s the cue that draws you to the TV set when you want to find out if you should take along that jacket when you leave home.”

I can’t imagine buying a CD with “The Weather Channel” in the title: It seems like an invitation to mockery: Possibly even lower than Kenny G and Michael Bolton. But regardless of what I think, you have to hand it to The Weather Channel’s marketing people. Who ever would have thought that a station that provides 24-hour coverage of the weather, hardly a scintillating topic to most people, would build a strong enough brand that it can be used to sell CDs.

I can think of a few companies that are struggling to capitalize on their brands that could use some of The Weather Channel’s marketing savvy.

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Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Apple Inc (AAPL), AT and T (T), iPhone, Stocks to Buy

I have been writing about Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for the past ten months for AOL’s BloggingStocks and have been a bull in every article. The shares have been a home run for investors in this difficult and challenging year. Apple is fast becoming the business school case study right before our very eyes as this company is executing flawlessly. Let’s examine what’s going on here in the calender fourth quarter — Apple’s fiscal first quarter of fiscal year 2008.

The stock has ranged these past 12 months from a low of $76 to a high of $192. Currently Apple is at $171 and this may be your last chance to buy it below $175. Apple finished its fiscal year 2007 with incredible numbers, margins, and more importantly, momentum, entering the new fiscal year. The new and improved Mac has taken market share and will continue to. The new operating system, Leopard, is enjoying rave reviews and quite frankly has the competition nervous. It should. The Mac sold 2.16 million units in the quarter ending in September, and the December quarter will only see upside to that number.

The revolutionary iPhone is exactly that: revolutionary. It is now the phone of choice from teenagers to the elderly. My two teenage children are only asking for one thing this Christmas — the iPhone. With the price point down to $399, a whole new generation of buyers has emerged. Also, iPhone is debuting in Europe and Asia, where demand is already high. Apple will recognize iPhone revenues over a 24 month period as it matches the contract length of AT&T (NYSE: T), the service provider. Of course Apple will be reaping a portion of AT&T’s monthly iPhone subscription revenue.

Continue reading Apple: Last Chance to buy under $175

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Filed under: Products and services, Research in Motion (RIMM), Palm Inc (PALM), Technology

This post is part of our Hottest Products of 2007 feature. Also check out our other Hottest Products of 2007 posts and let us know which product you think is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

I was a reluctant BlackBerry purchaser earlier this year. Urged on by a change in email systems at work, I found I needed one to keep up with internal goings on. I planned to retain my trusty Treo 650 as my “main” handheld — my one true smartphone — and just use the BlackBerry occasionally as needed.

But oh, the lure of the “crackberry.” I’m hooked! My old Treo 650 from Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) is starting to seem like R2D2 of Star Wars fame. It’s still my trusted friend, but a little dated and not quite able to perform the heroics of my World Edition BlackBerry. Shares of Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), maker of the BlackBerry, have surged this year from $42 to $107 in good part on its success with the 8800 series.

Most important for me, the BlackBerry updates automatically and doesn’t need to be synced with my computer — if a meeting is rescheduled, I can find out en route. It is lightning fast, and emails are all there waiting for me when I have a minute to check — even on the subway where I can’t get a signal.

Continue reading Hottest Products of 2007: BlackBerry 8800 is smartest of the smartphones

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Filed under: Getting started

In our quest to keep you up to date on the evolving language of business, here are some new terms it might behoove you to know:

• Alcopop - Hard lemonade and drinks of that ilk that are marketed like beer, but taste more like soft drinks. Training drinks for those entering their drinking years.
• Bangalored - One whose job has been outsourced to India is said to have been Bangalored.
• Business theater- Bringing theatrics to business presentations, especially at trade shows. For companies who find decolletage doesn’t work for them any more.
• Caffenol - Drinks combing alcohol and caffeine, producing wide-awake drunks.
• Dental Spa - Combines root canals with massage, aromatherapy, etc. A California invention; are you surprised?

Continue reading New business terms you need to know

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Filed under: Television

On yesterday’s Mad Money, Jim Cramer offered his “Mad Money Manual” — a guide to how to watch the show inspired by the criticism of his stock-picking track record leveled by the press.

The show is actually a recap of an episode from May, but I missed that one so I’ll opine on it now. According to TheStreet.com’s recap of the show:

In a given week Cramer said he might recommend a dozen stocks, excluding the ones in the “Lightning Round.” But just because Cramer says he likes a stock, doesn’t mean that viewers should go out and buy it.

Nor does it mean that if people buy that stock they will absolutely, positively make lots of money, Cramer said. “That’s not how this game works.”

Cramer stresses the importance of doing your own homework, but here’s the problem with that advice: Can the Average Joe with a 10-inch TV and Yahoo! Finance really expect to uncover something that hedge fund legend Jim Cramer has missed?

Continue reading How Jim Cramer should defend his Mad Money stock picks

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Filed under: Products and services, General Electric (GE), Boeing Co (BA)

This post is part of our Hottest Products of 2007 feature. Also check out our other Hottest Products of 2007 posts and let us know which product you think is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

On April 30, Today Show host Matt Lauer’s “Where in the World is Matt Lauer?” series took him to Everett, Washington, where he gushed about Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA)’s latest product, the 787 Dreamliner. At the end of the segment, Lauer enthused: “I’m looking forward to flying on it and maybe taking the controls some day!”

Lauer’s enthusiasm was a great example of General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) corporate synergies: GE not only owns NBC Universal, which produces the Today Show, but its jet engine division sells to Boeing.

(Speaking of synergies, I am writing a book on Boeing and this post will help.)

But there’s enough to like about the 787 Dreamliner to go around:

Continue reading Hottest Products of 2007: Boeing aims high with 787 Dreamliner

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Filed under: Good news, Consumer experience, Apple Inc (AAPL), Black Friday, Canada

The one word that describes the retail world coming in to yesterday’s “Black Friday” is nervousness. Would the consumer pull-back on this season’s shopping and would retailers suffer a terrible fate? Many big name “box” stores have already dropped their forecasts for the season and earnings expectations were lowered. Not so fast.

The consumer came out in droves yesterday, and in some cases even Thanksgiving night. The great Mall of America in suburban Minneapolis was abuzz from the get-go. I know because I was there.

The Mall of America has enough parking to accommodate 14,000 cars. When I arrived at the Mall with my 17-year-old daughter and her two friends, I knew things were good when I was directed to park my car a mile from the Mall and hop the shuttle bus.That’s a good start. Before I did park in the remote area, I dropped off my daughter and drove around the parking garage. I wanted to see where these shoppers came from. I counted license plates from 21 different states and many from Canada as they sported the Ontario license plates.

Continue reading Black Friday was green!

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Filed under: Getting started, Columns, Black Friday, Comfort Zone Investing

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he offers advice to investors who are just getting started.

Not funny, ha, ha. Funny as in odd. Stocks act differently between now and the beginning of next year. Some stocks move for no apparent reason. Others don’t move even when news is good. Here are a few reasons why.

It’s time for investors to take losses. And there are plenty of those in housing stocks, financials and biotechs. Other industries have been hit as well this year but those stand out. You’ll see many of these stocks drift down over the next few weeks as investors dump them to either take a loss to balance against a gain or decide to move into other stocks, unless there’s a specific announcement by a company that is good news. Even then, there may not be as strong a reponse as you’d expect.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Until January, funny things happen

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