Filed under: Forecasts, Market matters, Economic data, Housing
Everybody’s been wondering when the housing market will finally hit bottom. Moody’s decided to take a stab at that question with its new extensive report, “Aftershock: Housing in the Wake of the Mortgage Meltdown.” It will cost you $3,995 to order the full report, but you can read excerpts from its Executive Summary.
While Moody’s agrees the outlook for housing is daunting, it expects as the most likely scenario that housing should bottom by early 2009. That bottom is expected to result in an average annual national house price decline of 12%. Of course, some areas will be much harder hit and parts of Florida and California are predicted to bottom out with a 30% loss from the housing price peak.
Moody’s believes the fallout from the current housing recession — yes, they do call this a recession — will be serious enough to characterize what we’re now living through as a housing crash. Anyone doubting it? Moody’s expects housing sales to hit bottom in early 2008, declining over 40% from their peak. Housing starts will reach their lowest point in mid-2008 and fall by 55% from their peak.
Continue reading Moody’s thinks house prices will bottom in early 2009
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