Filed under: Rants and raves, General Electric (GE), News Corp’B’ (NWS), Media World, Politics, Presidential elections

My media world makes no sense anymore.

Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly, the symbol to liberals of all that’s evil, rushed to the defense of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton after Chris Matthews of MSNBC pointed out that she owed her political position to the fact that her husband “messed around…. That’s how she got to be senator from New York. We keep forgetting it. She didn’t win there on her merit.”

Now Matthews, who now reportedly is upset that Keith Olbermann is the rising star at MSNBC, is being lambasted by media types over those remarks, that came after Clinton’s surprising victory in the New Hampshire primary. Greg Sargent of Talking Points Memo accused the pundit of, “oversimplifying complex voter sentiment in the most crude and reductive fashion he can muster.”

In his report on Fox News (transcript from Media Matters), O’Reilly pontificated that ” Mr. Matthews has a perfect right to say whatever he wants to say because he is not a reporter. He is a commentator, as I am. But … that is a personal attack. And it is questionable whether a network should allow that or not.”

Let’s leave aside the irony of O’Reilly, the master of the personal attacks, criticizing Matthews for doing the same thing and focus on how this all happened. Matthews, like many other pundits, was caught flat-footed by Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire. One of O’Reilly’s pet peeves besides the evils of Hollywood is NBC, which happens to be the employer of his nemesis Olbermann. So sticking up for Hillary was the perfect opportunity for him to jab the General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE) cable channel, which in this case deserved it. No doubt News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Fox’s parent, was delighted by this as well.

Continue reading Media World: Why Bill O’Reilly stuck up for Hillary Clinton

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Filed under: Good news, Technical Analysis, Stocks to Buy

Cardiac Science Corporation (NASDAQ: CSCX) provides a family of diagnostic and therapeutic cardiology devices and systems, including electrocardiographs, stress test systems, Holter monitoring systems, hospital defibrillators, cardiac rehabilitation telemetry systems and cardiology data management systems. The company also sells a variety of related products and consumables and provides a portfolio of training, maintenance and support services.

The firm pleased investors earlier in the week, when it guided Q4 revenues to $50 million. Analysts had been expecting $46.20 million. Management also said that FY07 revenues would exceed $181 million ($177.90M consensus). In discussing the upside adjustments, the CEO particularly cited growth in the cardiac monitoring line and contributions from a new crash cart defibrillator product. CSCX shares popped on the news and then moved into a bullish “flag” consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the shares with one “strong buy” and one “buy”. Analysts see a 46 percent growth rate, through the next year. The CSCX Price to Sales ratio (1.22), Price to Book ratio (0.93), Price to Cash Flow ratio (16.36), Sales Growth rate (18.44%) and EPS Growth rate (-0.01 to 0.08 yr/yr) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 70 percent of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $7.35 and $11.50. A stop-loss of $7.95 looks good here. Note that the firm is expected to report Q4 results in late February.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold a position in the stock discussed above.

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Filed under: Rumors, Products and services, eBay (EBAY)

Although eBay, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: EBAY) Skype internet telephone service has has quite a bit of bad press lately, the service is what I would call indispensable to millions of customers who use it every day (myself included). There are reportedly over 250 million registered users of the service, and I regularly see seven to 10 million customers online at any given time. Why, then, isn’t the company doing well for eBay?

It is, in all reality. The fact is that eBay overpaid handsomely for the company in the first place, which is now showing up as ROI pressure just a tad over two years after eBay gobbled up the service. So, what can help Skype prove its worth more than just offering Voice-over-IP (VoIP) telephone calling over all those millions of PCs? Try voice calling over mobile handsets.

Continue reading Skype’s mobile push could lead to dead end

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Filed under: Stocks to Buy

Conglomerate Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) has operations in the industrial automation, control systems, lighting products, heating and ventilation systems, power distribution / transmission equipment, and transportation systems fields.

Readers of this space know that the investment philosophy favors large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And along this line Siemens AG is worth an evaluation.

That’s quite a breadth of operations, and the company has a diagnostic/imaging unit and an energy-related products unit, as well, but analysts like the fact that Siemens has streamlined it businesses in recent years. Analysts see 10-14% revenue growth in F2008, after 8-10% growth in F2007, and a healthy overall revenue mix.

Further, 20% of Siemens operations are Asia / Middle East / Russia-focused, where margin improvement is expected. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for SI are $8.59/%10.30.

The risks? Analysts are watching for a possible decrease in capital spending in Europe, and other signs of regional economic sluggishness.

The First Call mean rating for SI is: Buy. [4 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $169.00. [high: $199, low: $131.]

Stock Analysis: Siemens AG is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from SI’s shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $84.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Filed under: Products and services, Marketing and advertising, Politics, Presidential elections

It sounds like a bad dream. You should up to listen to and perhaps ask questions of Mike Huckabee, a leading Republican candidate for President but first … You have to sit through a speech about what a great opportunity Amway is. Pass the puke bucket.

But that’s exactly what happened in West Des Moines, according to the Baltimore Sun: “For half an hour, two businessmen paced the stage where Huckabee would soon stump. They never said the name of the company during their talks, but afterward some members of the crowd shared with others the good news of a company called Quixtar Inc.” Earlier this year, parent company Alticor said it was phasing out the Quixtar name and rebuilding its Amway brand which it had dropped in 2000.

Huckabee denies any formal association with the multi-level marketing hucksters, but said that they were a “great group of people.”

It appears true that Alticor employees and executives haven’t been giving to Huckabee. For whatever reason, company patriarch Richard DeVos has given money to Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. But historically, Alticor has been a huge donor to the Republican Party.

Maybe Giuliani, Romney, and the GOP as a whole should do some research into the background of the company that has been one of the part’s top donors for years. They could start with this excellent Dateline special.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Best Buy (BBY)

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) saw a decently healthy 2.5% sales gain in December, and the largest U.S. consumer electronics retailer also seems to have had a December sales figure that’s not nearly as bad as some retail pundits were predicting. Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY) reported today that December same-store sales growth came in at 0.3% in the U.S. (for five weeks that ended January 5), while also adding that 1.5% sales growth occurred at stores, Web sites and call centers open at least 14 months.

Although I believe Best Buy is positioned to do very well in 2008 despite harsh consumer conditions that may continue to develop, 0.3% same-store sales growth during a main holiday month has to be disappointing to the retailer.

Of course, Best Buy was quick to point out that the December reporting month in 2006 contained an extra week of shopping (the week after Thanksgiving) than the December reporting month in 2007 contained. That’s a great way to explain the situation of a quite-anemic 0.3% same-store sales figure. On an adjusted basis, Best Buy reported December same-store sales growth of 3% overall and 2.1% in the U.S. Okay, those numbers look much better, don’t they?

Meanwhile, competitor Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) saw horrible performance in December, losing on every possible front. Did Best Buy spank its nearest direct competitor? All signs point to yes. With consumer electronics being referenced as one of the top areas that helped propel Wal-Mart to its December same-store sales gains, Circuit City was the biggest loser in December when it came to consumer electronics. Hot categories at Best Buy during December were video games, GPS devices and flat-panel televisions.

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Filed under: Bad news, Economic data

Consumer confidence declined to an all-time low in early January 2008, according to one measure, as concerns about jobs, energy prices, and home foreclosures weighed on the public’s outlook for the economy and their personal finances, The Associated Press reported Friday.

The RBC Cash Index fell to 56.3 in early January 2008 from 65.9 in December 2007, RBC said in a statement. The January stat is the lowest reading since the index’s inception in 2002, RBC announced. One year ago, in January 2007, the idex stood at a healthy 95.3.

Economic headwinds weigh

Economist David H Wang told BloggingStocks Friday the data reflects consumer awareness of sub-par U.S. economic fundamentals, and the uncertain outlook for the nation in 2008.

Continue reading U.S. consumer confidence hits 6-year low

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Filed under: Indices, Market matters, Money and Finance Today, Technical Analysis, S and P 500

There’s lately been plenty of evidence that investors are growing more cautious. Among other things, they are increasingly favoring defensive groups such as consumer staples and health care.

Not surprisingly, drug stocks, in particular, have also been attracting their fair share of institutional fund flows, based on what the sector-relative chart is showing us.

After lagging the broad S&P 500 index throughout the entire bull run, the AMEX Pharmaceutical Index has found its technical footing and recently broke through a key 5-year downtrend.

To be sure, investors have been less-than-enthusastic towards the group because of shrinking new-product pipelines and fears of a political backlash over high drug prices. Still, you have to wonder whether most of the “bad news” has been priced in.

If so, the pharmaceutical sector might be one group worth keeping a bullish eye on.

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

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Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis

Simon Property Group Inc. (NYSE: SPG) shares are trading slightly lower this morning on news that vacancy rates rose as rents fell at U.S. malls during the fourth quarter due to concerns about consumer spending and a potential slowdown in the national economy, according to a report by the research firm Reis. Vacancy rates rose 0.3 percentage points to 5.8 percent and rent fell 0.4 percent to $40.37 per square foot in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. If you think this stock won’t be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SPG.

After hitting a one-year high of $123.96 in February, the stock hit a one-year low of $75.49 on Wednesday. This morning, SPG opened at $81.15. So far today the stock has hit a low of $79.52 and a high of $81.73. As of 10:45, SPG is trading at $81.29, down 45 cents (-0.6%). The chart for SPG looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bear-call credit spread above the $105 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn’t do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in 3 months as long as SPG is below $105 at April expiration. Simon Property would have to rise by more than 28% before we would start to lose money.

SPG hasn’t been above $105 since October and has shown resistance around $82 recently. This trade could be risky if the economy turns around quickly, but with everything we’ve seen recently, that doesn’t look like too big of a risk.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SPG.

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Filed under: Bank of America (BAC), Countrywide Financial (CFC)

You would think that having sold millions of shares at inflated prices would have been enough for Angelo Mozilo, who is now dumping Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) on Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) for less than a fifth of what the company traded at earlier this year.

The company has taken huge writedowns on ill-advised subprime loans, even as Mozilo sold about $140 million worth of stock during late 2006 and 2007. But according to the Los Angeles Times, “If he engineers a sale of battered Countrywide Financial to Bank of America, Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo stands to walk away with a severance package worth more than $110 million.”

The Times adds that Mozilo and wife will get health benefits for life, three years of life and financial planning help, and “tax gross-up payments” to compensate for any penalties he has to pay on a package that the IRS will likely consider grossly excessive.

This is an absolute parody of corporate governance. It’s hard to imagine anyone less entitled to any severance than Mr. Mozilo. The irony is that by selling to Bank of America at a depressed price, Mozilo reaps a windfall far larger than he likely could have earned through continued employment with the company. And he won’t have to work any more!

On the bright side, he’ll have more time to work on that wonderful tan, though it appears that he’s already been spending time doing that as the company has slid to the brink of bankruptcy

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