Filed under: Analyst reports, Forecasts, Target Corp. (TGT), American Express (AXP), Economic data

Moody’s wants to make the case that the economy will get bad, but will not fall into recession. CNNMoney writes, “the diversity of the U.S. economy and the global role of the dollar continue to support U.S. government bond and foreign currency ratings, according to the rating agency’s annual U.S. credit analysis.”

There may be some comfort in the thinking, but it is almost certainly wrong-headed. A look at retail and credit card data late in the fourth quarter points strongly to a consumer who has run out of gas. Results from Capital One (NYSE: COF) and American Express (NYSE: AXP) show a sharp increase in defaults as the year turned. Auto sales data were particularly weak for the last month of the year. Most retail companies like Target (NYSE: TGT) reported lackluster results.

The evidence for a case of positive GDP growth in 2008 is almost gone. The economy is running on fumes.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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