Archive for January 29th, 2008

We’re picking up speed in the Presidential campaign and with the California primaries fast approaching I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at how some of the candidates stack up when it comes to mortgage reform and their position on the mortgage mess.

We’ll look at all of the front-runners: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Guliani and Paul. If we lose any of them before I get to them we’ll thin accordingly. I’m already looking at the list wondering what I got myself in to with this idea.

Let me just disclose nice and early on that I am a Republican who is probably going to vote for Mccain; but know that I’ll do my best to keep plain “politics” out of this analysis.

Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton and Mortgage Reform

Clinton has made several high-profile mortgage reform speeches and has proposed a comprehensive plan to deal with abusive lending practices relating to subprime lending.

From her web site and plan to reign in abusive mortgage lending:

  • Require mortgage brokers to disclose to borrowers that their compensation rises when borrowers’ mortgage rates and mortgage fees are high.
  • Work with states to develop strong licensing standards and require federal registration for mortgage brokers.
  • Eliminate prepayment penalties on mortgage products.
  • Require mortgage lenders to include the cost of taxes and insurance in the underwriting assessment of higher-risk mortgages.
  • Establish a $1 billion fund to assist state programs that help at-risk borrowers avoid foreclosure.
  • Expand Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s Foreclosure Prevention Efforts.
  • Establish a $1 billion fund to provide federal support to housing trust funds established by state, county, and municipal governments.
  • Expanding access to independent face-to-face counseling; restricting prepayment penalties for subprime mortgages; requiring “plain-talk, no-fine-print disclosure”; promoting “foreclosure timeout” in which at-risk borrowers and lenders work out alternatives to foreclosure; and strengthening the Federal Housing Administration so that it could provide more homebuyers with an alternative to the subprime market.

An Analysis of Clinton’s Mortgage Plans

Looking at Clinton’s high-level plan for mortgage reform and reducing abusive lending standards it is clear that Clinton has focused hard in on brokers as the main source of predatory lending and abusive practices that have caused much of the pain in the U.S. housing market.

Clinton - It’s the Mortgage Brokers’ Fault

Clinton is a clear advocate of pinning the mortgage mess firmly on the back’s of mortgage brokers. Deal points in her mortgage reform plan only address additional regulation and licensing of mortgage brokers; with little reform directed at lenders.

A direct quote from her Web site reads:

Unscrupulous brokers have steered people into high cost mortgages, qualified them for loans they could not afford, and attached fees unnecessarily. These brokers are responsible for many of the lending abuses that occurred in recent years, but there is no single, national source for information about individual brokers. Hillary will establish national registration for brokers so that prospective borrowers can easily look up a broker’s employment history, violations, complaints, and other information. As President, she will also work with the states to develop strong licensing standards to ensure that mortgage brokers are qualified and properly screened.

I don’t think the lines can be drawn any clearer than that. Hillary clearly pins the problems of the housing market on mortgage brokers and will be heavy-handed in handing down new legislation to regulate and manage their existence.

An Overly Simplistic Point of View

This view of the market is overly-simplified and stinks of election-year hot-topic politicking without an in-depth examination of core issues. Hillary seems to forget some of the biggest cases of fraud and malfeasance in the mortgage arena come from the likes of Ameriquest, Countrywide and Washington Mutual. While brokers are a problem, and a national registry is a great step in the right direction; it is inappropriate to focus all of the attention on brokers as the primary source of the problems with predatory lending. Lenders are clearly culpable and deserve a closer look to ensure that their excesses are not forgiven strictly due to their size, legal teams and donation checks.

Pulling for the Big Banks

Clinton’s legislative plan would clearly be a boon to the large federal banks that would be unencumbered with the costs and requirements that are surely to be attached to the mortgage broker regulations. As smaller, under-capitalized mortgage brokers get caught up in red tape it will be business as usual for the large banks. This clearly creates an uneven playing field with a huge advantage to the large oligopoly that are the major banking interests.

What Clinton Should Push for is a Level Lending Ground and Universal Standard

Instead of pinning the blame on mortgage brokers; taking the easy fall guy and winning cheap votes, she should look to normalize the lending laws between state and federally chartered institutions. By moving the lending industry towards a level playing ground she will necessarily push the mortgage brokers towards oversight in line with the banking industry while not creating unfair advantages for federally-chartered institutions.

Making Money More Expensive By Eliminating Pre-Payment Penalties

Clinton’s goal of greatly reducing prepayment penalties is a noble one; but one that may result in higher borrowing costs as banks look to replace lost revenue with a larger interest rate spread across all loan products. I believe that access to private money should not be overly regulated with the terms of the agreements signed by two private parties (as in a subprime mortgage) as to the options that borrowers have to choose a lower monthly payment. Without pre-payment penalties borrowers are often looking at interest rates 75 basis points (.75%) higher in interest rate. This definitely causes a material impact on the cost of borrowing.

While I do agree that FHA should be modernized and expanded to accommodate more borrowers looking for loans with better terms; those that are unable to qualify under conforming or government assistance should have access to funds where costs are mitigated by choosing features such as a prepayment penalty to make out-of-the-box financing more affordable.

A Reversal in Belief?

In 2001 then Senator Clinton voted with President Bush to reform personal bankruptcy law to make it harder for individuals to qualify for Chapter 7 bankruptcy - putting the burden of debt back on to the borrower. Barack Obama has criticized Clinton for the vote pointing to that vote as a vote in favor of large banks and credit card companies over the American public.

From the Wall Street Journal:

The Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2001 that Sen. Clinton voted for eventually died in Congress, but a similar measure became law in 2005. Sen. Clinton has said she would have opposed the 2005 bill, but she missed the vote because she was with her husband during surgery.

The 2001 bill “had some things I agreed with and other things I didn’t agree with, and I was happy that it never became law,” Sen. Clinton said at a Jan. 15 debate in Las Vegas.

The 2005 law made it more difficult for people to qualify for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which lets individuals pay creditors a portion of the debt they owe. Instead, the new law directed more people toward Chapter 13 bankruptcy, which requires repayment plans.

“Reform is needed,” Sen. Clinton said in 2001, according to a news release still on her Senate office’s Web site. “The right kind of reform is necessary. We’re on our way toward that goal, and I hope we can achieve final passage of a good bankruptcy reform bill this year.”

The credit-card and banking industries spent millions of dollars lobbying for the law, arguing it was necessary to prevent people from abusing the bankruptcy system and unfairly escaping debt. But liberal and consumer groups countered that the law traps consumers struggling with their finances.

Both the 2001 and 2005 bills “were bad ideas because they were pushed by the credit-card companies, they were pushed by the mortgage companies and they put the interests of those banks and financial institutions ahead of the interests of the American people,” Sen. Obama said at the Las Vegas debate. “And this is typical.”

Siding with Big Banks?

One has to wonder with Clinton’s backing of the 2001 Bankruptcy reform bill and the blatant bias against mortgage brokers in her mortgage reform plan how deep in the pocket she is with big banks? Will she continue to ignore the role of big banks in our current mortgage crisis and put in bank-friendly legislation like she attempted to do with the 2001 vote?

Mortgage Brokers Be Afraid

If you are a mortgage broker planning on voting for Hillary Clinton it is definitely worth a look at her policy stance on your profession. While I’m sure she’d gladly take your vote and your money she isn’t looking to make your life any easier in the coming years.

What do you think?

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Countrywide reported that it lost $422 million last quarter while watching loan production sink nearly a third from $90 billion to $61 billion.  This comes on the heals of an expected B of A takeover; the plans of which are to be unveiled today by Bank of America.  Many believe that a poor performance by Countrywide could unwind the potential takeover.

From Market Watch:

The Calabasas, Calif.-based company swung to a loss of $422 million, or 79 cents a share, while provision for credit losses totaled $924 million, down from $937 million in the third quarter. Reserve for credit losses stood at $1.9 billion at the end of 2007, the company said.

Ken Lewis, Bank of America’s CEO is making a presentation later Tuesday and is expected to discuss the planned takeover of Countrywide. Analysts have speculated that a poor fourth quarter earnings report could nix the deal.

Also Tuesday, Countrywide said loan production in the fourth quarter plunged to $61 billion, down from $90 billion in the third quarter and from $118 billion in the year-ago fourth quarter.

“This decline reflects a smaller origination market, which is largely attributable to the tightening of underwriting and loan program guidelines throughout the industry, as well as economic conditions and the lack of liquidity for non agency-eligible loans,” the company said.

Can’t you see the B of A board of directors sitting back after the flurry of deal making with a nice dose of buyer’s remorse saying “do we really want this piece of crap?”

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Stated income has always been laughable to me.  For the most part the way that it’s been implemented in the industry is as outright fraud - pick a number that makes the loan work and find a way to justify it to the brain-dead underwriting team that is just trying to hit their numbers.  Now, I don’t need the 10 comments about what stated income was originally designed for, and how it helps self-employed people; we get it.  Simply put, a huge portion of the fraud in our industry can be attributed to stated income loan products.

No Stated for Mortgage Professionals

One of my favorite ironies of the recent credit crunch has been the policy that many banks have taken towards those in the mortgage, real estate and home building industries.  That policy is to require all people in those industries to fully document their income.  As they say in the business “you can go stated if you’re not in the industry.”  It seems to be the ultimate irony.  The banks are wary most of those who would be most likely to “game” the system - and those people just happen to be the same folks send loans to them.

Some of the more prudent banks have had this policy in place since day one - recognizing the massive conflict of interest that the relationship holds.  Others, greedy for every dollar and loan, ignored the conflict completely - until loans held by those in the industry started going sour like milk 2-days past the “use by” date.

It’s a ringing indictment to the malfeasance that oozes out of the origination community.  Not only does it say “we know you don’t make anything close to what you made last year” it also says “we don’t trust you in the least,” both of which are responsible positions to take if you’re a bank dealing with folks on the origination side.  Is it a sad statement that those with the tools cannot be trusted to use them responsibly by those that provide them?  I think so.

Funny how banks will accept stated income from other professions of dubious repute and squirrelly income documentation but outright refuse those in the industry.  Conflict of interest is right - there is no question that mortgage brokers, retail loan officers, appraisers, processors and underwriters were some of the biggest offenders when it came to using the “stated income” loop hole in qualifying for financing they had no chance of receiving.

Stated income is gone in Minnesota, Colorado, pending in North Carolina and may soon be on its death bed in California.  While it will be difficult for self-employed folks to qualify for a loan banks will need to “invent” a more responsible product that can fill the needs of the self-employed mortgage borrower without exposing itself to the massive fraud that stated income perpetuated across the entire industry.

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I just wanted to take a minute to say thank you to those that have contributed to Blown Mortgage over the last couple of months.  Tom, Chris, Graeme, Matthew, Ricardo and Sean. I greatly appreciate your effort, expertise and insight that you have brought to Blown Mortgage.  Thank you deeply for your support and contributions.

I have decided to turn Blown Mortgage back to a one-man band after a trial run at multi-contributors.  It wasn’t for anything other than a selfish interest on my part to feel reconnected with the Blown Mortgage crew.  I felt too disconnected without any need to contribute that often, check back on conversations, or other.  Essentially I was letting the blog and you all down.

To fix it I had to bring it back to the form when it inspired me most - when it was a sounding board for what I thought about the industry.  So here we are again.

Thank you so much to the contributors mentioned above.  Without them there is no telling where Blown Mortgage would be and I appreciate their contributions immensely.

Humbly,
Morgan

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Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) closed at $555.98 Monday.

GOOG is expected to report Q4 EPS on January 31.

Smith Barney says: “In addition to P&L results, Key areas to focus on 1) search advertising drivers & management comments on the macro environment; 2) International traction; 3) Universal search impact; 4) YouTube monetization plans & additional advertising innovations and 5) Comments on the Mobile Internet ad opportunity.”

GOOG February option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

 

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Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) closed at $555.98 Monday.

GOOG is expected to report Q4 EPS on January 31.

Smith Barney says: “In addition to P&L results, Key areas to focus on 1) search advertising drivers & management comments on the macro environment; 2) International traction; 3) Universal search impact; 4) YouTube monetization plans & additional advertising innovations and 5) Comments on the Mobile Internet ad opportunity.”

GOOG February option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

 

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TheStreet.com’s Jim Cramer says even if the companies are OK, the stocks are going nowhere and need to be sold on strength.

Has tech had it?

Apple (NASDQ: AAPL) (Cramer’s Take) simply didn’t do that well. Google’s (NASDQ: GOOG) (Cramer’s Take) stock is floundering even if Google isn’t. Garmin’s (NASDQ: GRMN) (Cramer’s Take) been pretty much destroyed. Microsoft’s (NASDQ: MSFT) (Cramer’s Take) in the same place it started after that great quarter. Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) (Cramer’s Take) surprises to the upside and does nothing; same with Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer’s Take). VMWare’s (NYSE: VMW) (Cramer’s Take) simply awful, dragging down EMC (NYSE: EMC) (Cramer’s Take), which I unfortunately own for Action Alerts PLUS, to a below-market multiple on 2008 earnings. IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer’s Take) preannounced up and then beat the preannouncement and nobody cares, and Intel’s (NASDQ: INTC) (Cramer’s Take) just awful.

Which leads me to conclude that, yes, tech has indeed become pretty much irrelevant. The big growth drivers, exciting product cycles, big innovations, don’t exist. eBay (NASDQ: EBAY) (Cramer’s Take), IAC/Interactive (NASDQ: IACI) (Cramer’s Take) and Yahoo! (NASDQ: YHOO) (Cramer’s Take) are just pathetic, all without leadership and declining earnings. Nobody cares about new kinds of cell phones or music or movie deliveries. It is all just too darned competitive.

Regardless of what companies say about the excitement of new PCs filled with new features and hardware, nobody likes them as stocks for certain. Remember Dell (NASDQ: DELL) (Cramer’s Take)? Now that homebuilders and banks are moving along with retailers, this is the worst group to own. Apple? We had thought that Macs would be the icing on the iPod cake, but we never even got to it because the cake was so disappointing.

I wish I had good answers for this. I wish I could say “Ignore it, Western Dig (NYSE: WDC) (Cramer’s Take) just reported a great number and so did Corning.” But I tried that with IBM, and it didn’t work.

Reluctantly I have to conclude that this is a group that on strength has to be sold. Anything I own that has tech has been killing me for Action Alerts PLUS. I have to stop ignoring it and pay attention to it.

Tech’s awful.

Now, there will be people who will say “OK, Cramer’s throwing in the towel on tech, buy tech.” To which I say, “I hope you are right, because I can’t get out of most of the tech I own anyway, and I sure hope I am wrong.”

RELATED LINKS:

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com’s sites and serves as an adviser to the company’s CEO. Cramer is long EMC and Corning.

 

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Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), Dell (DELL), eBay (EBAY), Intel (INTC), Market matters, International Business Machines (IBM), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI), Corning Inc (GLW), Texas Instruments (TXN), EMC Corp (EMC), Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com’s Jim Cramer says even if the companies are OK, the stocks are going nowhere and need to be sold on strength.

Has tech had it?

Apple (NASDQ: AAPL) (Cramer’s Take) simply didn’t do that well. Google’s (NASDQ: GOOG) (Cramer’s Take) stock is floundering even if Google isn’t. Garmin’s (NASDQ: GRMN) (Cramer’s Take) been pretty much destroyed. Microsoft’s (NASDQ: MSFT) (Cramer’s Take) in the same place it started after that great quarter. Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) (Cramer’s Take) surprises to the upside and does nothing; same with Corning (NYSE: GLW) (Cramer’s Take). VMWare’s (NYSE: VMW) (Cramer’s Take) simply awful, dragging down EMC (NYSE: EMC) (Cramer’s Take), which I unfortunately own for Action Alerts PLUS, to a below-market multiple on 2008 earnings. IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer’s Take) preannounced up and then beat the preannouncement and nobody cares, and Intel’s (NASDQ: INTC) (Cramer’s Take) just awful.

Which leads me to conclude that, yes, tech has indeed become pretty much irrelevant. The big growth drivers, exciting product cycles, big innovations, don’t exist. eBay (NASDQ: EBAY) (Cramer’s Take), IAC/Interactive (NASDQ: IACI) (Cramer’s Take) and Yahoo! (NASDQ: YHOO) (Cramer’s Take) are just pathetic, all without leadership and declining earnings. Nobody cares about new kinds of cell phones or music or movie deliveries. It is all just too darned competitive.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Why you need to dump Tech

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Filed under: Management, Law, IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)

IAC/InterActive Corp. (NASDAQ: IACI) Chief Executive Barry Diller is one CEO who cannot be tamed by his corporate public relations staff or lawyers. He says what he wants when he wants, seeming not to care much for the potential ramifications.

Take his fight with fellow tycoon John Malone of Liberty Media Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: LINTA) over Diller’s plan to split up his conglomerate that’s been cobbled together through dozens of acquisitions of seemingly disparate companies. Liberty also happens to own majority stake in IAC. However, a long-standing agreement with Diller allows the mogul to control it through a proxy agreement. Well, at least that was the case until recently.

Liberty has asked a Delaware Chancery Court to remove Diller from IAC’s board [subscription required] along with other members, and to have several of Liberty’s nominees put in their place. The company also asked for Diller to be removed from BDTV, which the Wall Street Journal described as “a little-known entity through which Liberty owns most of its stake in IAC.”

Continue reading Barry Diller is in top form in fight with John Malone

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Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI), Money and Finance Today, American Express (AXP), Countrywide Financial (CFC), Lilly (Eli) (LLY), EMC Corp (EMC)

In the News:

Super Bowl, Super Business
Super Sunday generates major bucks for all involved, from its host network to snackmakers, HDTV sellers, and especially the game’s host city.
The Super Bowl Economy

In Pictures: See Who Earns the Most From the Super Bowl

Also: Get Ready Peyton, Eli Is Poised for Endorsement Success


Sports’ Most Expensive Ticket

Think the cost of a movie ticket is inflated? Take a look at how much Super Bowl-goers have coughed up through the years.
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/01/0128_superbowl_tickets/index_01.htm


Naughty Side of Valentine’s Day is Big Business

Valentine’s Day marks the busy season for companies that make “pleasure products” and other adult merchandise — a $2 billion industry that’s moving out of the shadows and into your local shopping mall. From high-end lingerie to custom condoms, a look at the businesses cashing in on the naughty side of Valentine’s Day.
Why Sex Sells More Than Ever - Inc. In Pictures: America’s Sexiest Businesses

Continue reading Naughty side of Valentine’s Day & Super Bowl economy - Today in Money 1/29

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