Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Federal Reserve

To stock investors, among others, the currency markets sometimes appear a tad confusing.

Case in point: currency analysts and traders expect the U.S. dollar to rise versus major currencies this year, despite declining short-term interest rates in the United States. The statement appears to be a contradiction, given that the No. 1 factor in a currency’s strength is its interest rate. High interest rates attract money and drive a currency higher versus currencies with lower interest rates, all other factors being equal.

However, interest rates, while the most important factor, are not the only factor affecting currency values. A nation’s economic growth - - including prospects for growth - - also is a strong factor: stronger economies attract money, driving their respective currencies higher. Further, it’s the latter that’s leading analysts and traders to argue that the dollar should rise from its multi-year lows in 2008.

On Monday afternoon the dollar was mixed against the world’s major currencies, falling about one-quarter cent to $1.4821 versus the euro and about 1 cent to $1.0732 versus the British pound. The dollar rose 0.25 yen to 106.72 against Japan’s yen.

Continue reading Fed rate cuts seen ending dollar’s slide in 2008 on U.S. growth expectations

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 5th, 2008 at 8:17 am and is filed under Stocks Money News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.