Filed under: MBIA Inc (MBI)

DealBook reports that MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is blaming short-seller William Ackman for its woes. And since it can’t seem to fight Ackman by improving its financial condition and boosting its prospects, MBIA is asking Congress to step in.

When the producer for CNBC’s Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo called to ask if I’d talk about this topic at 4:15 this afternoon, I turned her down. I would have loved to have discussed this; however, I had a class to teach. But I have been a supporter of Ackman’s call to short MBIA since last May. And the stock is down about 81% since then. What a great call on Ackman’s part!

That’s why MBIA’s testimony in front of Congress is so pathetic. Specifically, it targeted Ackman when it wrote that the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets should work with the Securities and Exchange Commission to curtail “the unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities of short sellers,” trying to undermine market confidence in MBIA to drive the company’s share price to nearly zero.

Continue reading MBIA asks Congress to fight its battles with Ackman

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Filed under: Launches, Magazines, Film

The dysfunctional state of the mainstream magazine industry is apparently not enough to dissuade the purveyors of the Girls Gone Wild video franchise from flashing the newsstand. According to Nate Ives of Advertising Age, Girls Gone Wild magazine will soon hit the streets with $9.99 worth of exuberant exhibitionism. Should Playboy (NYSE: PLA) worry?

I’m not particularly savvy on the magazine business, but I think I have the profit model here figured out. Girls Gone Wild haunts the spring break spots, enticing drunken college girls to bare their breasts and more for the camera, and hawks the videos on late night television.

Now, thousands of parents each year are suckered into buying those high school Who’s Who books for the pleasure of proving to their relatives that their sons are not losers after all. Is it so hard to believe that the same parent wouldn’t pony up a sawbuck for a picture of their daughter at her youthful peak of ripeness? I can imagine the magazine being proudly passed around at the family reunion, after the macaroni salad, before the softball game. “Gosh, is that really Nellie Sue?” says Aunt Jean. “That must have hurt,” opines cousin Delores. “Let me borrow that for a minute,” says young cousin Carl. “I’ll bring it right back.”

Yeah, parental pride is sure to lead to the success of the Girls Gone Wild magazine. For many parents, it will be a choice between that or her mug shot for the family Christmas card.

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Filed under: Stocks to Buy

A bank stock? In this market? Sure, if it’s a community-oriented bank, such as People’s Bank.

People’s United Financial, Inc. (Nasdaq: PBCT) is a community-based bank that operates more than 300 branches in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire.

In addition to traditional banking activities, People’s provides specialized services tailored to specific markets, including personal, institutional, and employee benefits as well as cash management, and municipal banking and finance.

Analysts see a 10-12% increase in loan growth in 2007, and 9-11% revenue growth overall: a similar performance is expected in 2008. Meanwhile, most importantly, asset quality remains good — no small consideration in today’s beleaguered mortgage market.

Analysts also like the fact that People’s will likely use new capital to expand its operations outside its Connecticut base. The Reuters FY 2008/FY 2009 EPS consensus estimates for PBCT are $0.82 to $1.02.

The First Call mean rating for PBCT is: Buy [9 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $20 [high: $23, low: $17].

Stock Analysis: People’s Bank is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from PBCT’s shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $8.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Filed under: Products and services, Law, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Scandals, Politics, Oil, Headline news

As I fully expected, I’ve received a fair amount of comments on a recent blog post in which I proudly took a stance in favor of Exxon’s court backed demand that the government of Hugo Chavez immediately ante up for the oil infrastructure which the country he leads has stolen from Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM). Most of the commentary was lucid and well thought out on both sides of the argument, but one particular commenter really piqued my sense of intrigue.

The comment I’m referring to was an assertion that what the Chavez government has done by seizing the Cerro-Negro oil development is legal. For the purpose of this rebuttal, and because I am near totally ignorant of international law, I’m going to assume that comment was correct. Now, here comes the Devil’s Advocate:

Continue reading United States government should nationalize some assets too

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Filed under: Newspapers, Employees, New York Times’A’ (NYT), News Corp’B’ (NWS)

In a move that’s both sad and expected, The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT) is planning to eliminate as many as 100 newsroom positions from its flagship paper.

The move follows cutbacks at the other major papers including the company’s Boston Globe as well as The Los Angeles Times and Washington Post. Even though newspaper executives will babble on and on about the Internet, the industry is still a print business and that’s the problem. Advertisers continue to find it more cost effective to shift their spending from traditional media onto the Internet. That trend will become even more prevalent as marketing budgets get squeezed in an economic downturn.

It’s amazing that the New York-based publisher avoided these cuts until now. If the Sulzberger family didn’t have a iron grip over the company through a dual-class ownership structure that minority shareholders have complained for years is unfair, the layoffs would have been much worse. Shareholders may pressure for even deeper cuts if there isn’t an improvement in the company’s stock which is down 27% over the past year.

Continue reading New York Times cuts 100 newsroom jobs

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Filed under: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Dell (DELL), Starbucks (SBUX), Intel (INTC), International Business Machines (IBM), salesforce.com inc (CRM), Small business

One of my favorite books is Patricia Seybold’s Outside Innovation. Her main point is that much of a company’s innovation will come outside its walls — such as from employees, partners, investors, and so on.

For example, the hip online clothing retailer, Karmaloop, gets about 40% of its brand ideas from its customers. Of course, the biggies — like International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM), Cisco Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO), salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: CRM), Intel Corporation (Nasdaq: INTC) and Dell, Inc. (Nasdaq: DELL) — also operate idea sites.

In the case of Cisco, the company has established the I-Prize competition so as to find the next billion-dollar idea. The company says it may invest up to $10 million into the winning idea.

So what can your company do to benefit from other people’s ideas? Let’s take a look:

Continue reading Entrepreneur’s Journal: striking gold from other people’s ideas

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Filed under: Industry, Stocks to Buy

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Cleveland-Cliffs is worth an evaluation.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) is the largest producer of iron ore pellets in North America, and is also a major supplier of metallurgical coal to the global steelmaking industry.

Analysts like CLF’s solid fundamentals, pricing power, and high customer retention rate.

Continue reading As far as Cleveland-Cliffs is concerned, today is another Iron Age

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Filed under: Books

Having worked as a banker for more than 10 years before entering the investment world, Christopher Mayer has a simple thesis behind his book Invest Like a Dealmaker: Secrets From a Former Investment Banking Insider. Essentially, there are two markets for publicly-traded companies. The first, and most widely known, are the stock prices that are available instantly. The other, lesser-known market is the value that these same companies might have to a private buyer. By focusing their research efforts on the latter and using stock prices only as opportunities to buy and sell when it’s advantageous, Mayer believes that investors can achieve better results with less stress.

Many readers will be disappointed that Mayer never really takes the analysis much farther than this. He includes some very helpful tips for finding undervalued stocks — look at enterprise value to ebitda ratios, book value and other metrics unappreciated by most investors — but there is really not much in here about dealmakers, the world of private equity, etc.

That said, this is a very pleasing little book. Mayer has obviously read pretty extensively about investing, and much of the book consists of odes to the ideas of others. He relates many great anecdotes and quotes from some great investors, and a lot of them are obscure enough that even those who have read about value investing a lot wouldn’t have heard them yet.

Invest Like a Dealmaker is almost nothing like what the title would suggest, but it still belongs on the bookshelf of the serious value investor.

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Filed under: Housing

I can’t believe I didn’t see this until today. This is by far the best explanation of what went wrong in subprime — British satirists John Fortune and John Bird conduct a mock interview explaining subprime, CDOs, SIVs, etc. Who needs Harvard Business School case studies when you have this?

This clip should be shown at Congressional hearings.

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Filed under: International markets, China, Kellogg Co (K), Sara Lee Corp (SLE), General Mills (GIS), Commodities, Oil, Agriculture

First oil. Then copper, then lumber, and coal. And now grain.

The solid economic growth in the world’s emerging markets that’s caused oil / coal and commodities prices to surge is now fully hitting the grain market.

So much so, that some food producers are calling on the U.S. government to restrict exports due to soaring prices for grains they use to make cereal and other foods. Meanwhile, some farmers are asking the U.S. Government to ease restrictions to enable farmers to plant more acres, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday [Subscription required].

For food producers, the issue involves limiting a major operating cost. During the past year, spring wheat has risen to an astounding $17.63 per bushel, up from about $4.90 a year ago. Flour, which used to cost about $15 per 100 pounds, now sells for about $45-48 per 100 pounds. Food producers say prices are increasing so fast, they can’t pass along price increases quick enough to keep up.

Continue reading Pricey Wheaties: Grain prices surging on emerging market demand

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