Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), eBay (EBAY), General Electric (GE), Amazon.com (AMZN), Diageo plc (DEO), Tiffany and Co (TIF), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Reliance Steel and Aluminum (RS), Under Armour’A’ (UA), Economic data, Anglo Amer ADR (AAUK), Federal Reserve, Raytheon Company (RTN), Bunge Ltd. (BG), Recession
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.
While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.
The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke’s calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.
Last Friday the market tanked capping off a bad week and prompting me to post Dow below 12,000 — do I hear 11,000? Yes I do!. Then, Monday, it tanked again. The Fed had seen enough and juiced up the market on Tuesday by providing a burst of liquidity in the form of $200 billion in credit swaps so that financial institutions would have more capital to lend. This was like taking a hit on a super caffeinated energy drink — Wall Street got all excited for a day and the market jumped: Dow up +416: The Fed is not dead.
The Fed’s action was fun for a day, but by Wednesday, traders were already whining ‘what have you done for me lately’ and when the sugar and caffeine had burned off, the market fizzled out quickly like some cheap fire works.
We all view the world from our own vantage point and have a hard time seeing the perspective of others, but they feel the pain also, becasue when the dollar goes down in value, it hurts our buying power. And what about the Chinese who are holding over a trillion dollars in US Treasury notes?
Then there are the European farmers and manufacturers crying foul because the relative cost of their goods on the open market has escalated. What about the pain of many of our dollar pegged neighbors, like Costa Rica, whose citizens were already far behind us on the economic curve, and now they also have to deal in dollars that have lost so much value. Oil , too, has gone up in price not just because OPEC won’t increase production, but because they are “petro dollars” and correlate to our currency.
Every time our federal government prints more money (or issues digital currency) to cover the federal deficit, trade deficit, Iraq war, which is only off-budget in the imaginations of our government officials (elected and not), lowers interest rates (making Treasury notes less desirable) issues credit swaps or sneezes, the US, AND the Global economy STILL catches a cold! Right now, some are concerned it might be more than a cold — the world economy might have caught pneumonia.
All of these popular companies must continue to operate under these sickly economic conditions. There is no day off, no place to hide, no running from the competition for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Anglo Amer ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE: RS), Tiffany and Co (NYSE: TIF) and Under Armour’A’ (NYSE: UA).
The only way to reduce inflation is to have a balance between the amount of currency in circulation and the goods and services available to purchase with said currency. Every action by the Fed to create liquidity in the economy, generates a phantom value, and if not met with an increase in productivity, is devaluing the dollar and enslaving us to a future of working more for less benefit. That is why I so strongly believe we should fund roads & bridges NOT mad money stimulus. For more discussion you can also read Serious Money: Stimulate productivity not consumption, which I believe is an imperative. That is the gravity of the situation.
In Part Two, I will expand further on these topics and delve into how there actually were and are weapons of mass destruction right under our noses — economic weapons of mass destruction.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I currently own shares in AAUK, EBAY and TIF.
