Filed under: Major movement, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Bad news, Hershey Co (HSY), Options, Technical Analysis

Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) shares are falling after an analyst at Bernstein downgraded the stock to “underperform” from “market-perform,” citing a drop in HSY’s volume growth and the threat of losing market share to competitor Mars Inc. If you think this stock won’t be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on HSY.

After hitting a one-year high of $55.90 last April, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.54 in January. This morning, HSY opened at $37.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.31 and a high of $37.94. As of 11:30, HSY is trading at $36.42, down $1.93 (-5.0%). The chart for HSY looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $40 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn’t do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in five weeks as long as HSY is below $40 at May expiration. Hershey would have to rise by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

HSY hasn’t been above $40 since December and has shown resistance around $39 recently. This trade could be risky if the company’s earnings (due out on 4/24) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HSY might find around $39, where it topped out over the past week.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HSY.

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This entry was posted on Saturday, April 12th, 2008 at 10:10 am and is filed under Stocks Money News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.