Archive for April 29th, 2008

Filed under: International markets, Middle East, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH)

Just a year ago, if you mentioned “sovereign wealth funds,” you probably would have gotten a blank stare. But, of course, this is now the hot thing in finance. More importantly, it looks like sovereign wealth funds are poised for strong long-term growth. In fact, Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) recently set up a division to capitalize on the mega trend.

Sovereign wealth funds are found in many countries in Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East. It’s the inevitable consequence of some major forces: strong economic growth in emerging economies, the fall in the US dollar and spikes in commodities prices, especially oil.

Global Insight, a research firm, estimates that sovereign wealth funds have grown an average of 24% per year for the past three years. They have about $3.5 trillion in assets, which is more than private equity and hedge funds combined.

No doubt, sovereign wealth funds have become a key element in global finance. For example, they contributed to about 28% of M&A deals (in January 2008) and about 10% of private equity transactions.

Global Insight forecasts that - by 2015 - sovereign wealth funds will exceed the value of the GDP of the US economy. And, I’m sure, the funds will also own a big chunk of it as well.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook (www.mergerbook.com) and is also a principal in Averiware, which provides an ERP system to small and midsize businesses.

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Filed under: Earnings reports

Virtual Radiologic (NASDAQ: VRAD), which had an IPO last year, is a New Age medical company. That is, it operates a sophisticated network that allows for remote interpretation of CT scans, ultrasounds, and MRIs. In other words, a radiologist can work from his or her own home - and still make big bucks.

This week, Virtual Radiologic announced its Q1 results. Revenues increased 29% to $23.3 million and EBITDA was up 60% to $4 million.

And to continue its growth, Virtual Radiologic recently acquired Diagna Radiology, LLC, for $6 million. The firm has 44 customers in 17 states. What’s more, Diagna has a strong platform for analysis on final reads, which could be a nice up-sell opportunity for Virtual Radiologic customers.

Continue reading Virtual Radiologic’s real results

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Filed under: Options

Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) closed at $107.75 Monday.

WYNN is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the close on May 1.

Deutsche Bank says: “At current levels, we believe WYNN shares do not reflect its entire pipeline (expansion at Wynn Macau, a Cotai resort and the development of the Las Vegas golf course) or potential to participate in new gaming jurisdictions.”

WYNN April option implied volatility of 60 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Via [bloggingstocks]

The rating agency downgraded $247 million in Countrywide subprime loan transactions as the transactions experienced 60-day delinquency rates of ranging from 7-40%. In the process the ratings agency affirmed the ratings of $2 billion of the subprime-based transactions. Here’s the breakdown - check out the delinquency numbers on these things!

CWABS 2003-BC3 60+ day Delinquency: 26.73%
CWABS 2003-BC4 60+ day Delinquency: 18.01%
CWABS 2003-BC5 60+ day Delinquency: 16.06%
CWABS 2003-BC6 60+ day Delinquency: 12.35%
CWABS 2003-5 Group 1 60+ day Delinquency: 6.79%
CWABS 2003-5 Group 2 60+ day Delinquency: 40.99%
CWABS 2004-BC4 60+ day Delinquency: 18.59%
CWABS 2004-1 60+ day Delinquency: 14.92%
CWABS 2004-5 60+ day Delinquency: 19.51%
CWABS 2004-8 60+ day Delinquency: 28.68%
CWABS 2004-11 60+ day Delinquency: 28.76%

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Bad news, Google (GOOG)

Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has been accused of charging clients for ads they really don’t want. Google’s AdWords, the hallmark of the company’s revenue success, is under scrutiny due to a single “checkbox” inside the system labeled “CPC (cost-per-click) content bid.” Check the box, and your ad will be displayed when a customer uses one of your designated keywords. Don’t check the box, and no ads will be associated with your keywords. Maybe.

Plaintiff David Almeida claims that there is no clear distinction between Google’s own AdWords program and its AdSense program, which is used to display Google advertising on partner websites, according to Information Week. Under the AdSense program, a customer must use an entry of “0″ to ensure ads don’t run on that network instead of leaving the entry blank. The suit states that “This action arises from the fact that Google does not inform its advertisers that if they leave the content bid CPC input blank, Google will use the advertiser’s CPC bid for clicks occurring on the content network … Google does this despite the fact that ads placed on the content network are demonstrably inferior to ads appearing on search result pages.” Ah-ha — so Google is displaying inferior ads on its AdSense program compared to its search engine-related AdWords program?

The suit goes on to say that “by redefining the universally understood meaning of an input form left blank, and then intentionally concealing this redefinition, Google has fraudulently taken millions of dollars from Plaintiff and the members of the class.” This has huge implications for Google if the true meaning of its CPC business is either not well executed or if crucial pieces of verbiage are left out. that don’t demonstrate where an advertiser’s dollars “could” go based on what network (AdWords or AdSense) they use. This will be an interesting development to watch.

First, I want to thank everyone that participated in the discussion about the hypothetical family making $100,000 a year with 2 kids and showing how $100,000 doesn’t go as far as many would expect especially in high cost areas. I also noticed that most of the comments that went something like, “cut out the […]
Related Posts:
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Buena Park. $511,000 for 864 Square Feet. Even Knott’s Berry Farm is Cheaper!
Real Estate Olympics: Cliff Diving Prices in California. Median Price Down 30 Percent Statewide.
Real Homes of Genius: 675 square foot home in Lynwood California at $425,000?!
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Santa Ana. 498 Square Feet for $440,000, What a Deal!
Real Homes of Genius: $450,000 3/2 Home in Compton? Yes folks, Smoking Housing Bubble Peyote Will Make You See Things Like This!

First, I want to thank everyone that participated in the discussion about the hypothetical family making $100,000 a year with 2 kids and showing how $100,000 doesn’t go as far as many would expect especially in high cost areas. I also noticed that most of the comments that went something like, “cut out the entertainment!” or “brown bag it!” or “why give to charity when you need it?” were from folks that simply are not from high cost areas. I thought most would quickly see that combined housing costs from the mortgage payment, taxes, and maintenance were eating up over 47 percent of their net take home income. Keep in mind that this is on a home that was bought for $385,000 which I know seems absurd to anyone not from the area; but for all of you out of state that is enough to buy you a Real Home of Genius here in California. The purpose of the article was to highlight that this couple wasn’t your typical Southern California so-called “upper middle-class” couple with a Range Rover and Lexus in the driveway. In that case, they would have a car payment of $700 or higher on each vehicle and adjusted insurance rates and higher fuel costs.

Anyone here in Orange County and Los Angeles understands that many people think of being middle class as having two luxury cars, all rooms remodeled, and every upgraded gadget that’ll make your entertainment system seem like NASA central. How many friends and family do you know that have similar budgets yet drive ridiculously expensive cars and are still struggling with debt? Not only that, how many jumped into this absurd housing bubble bonanza to keep up with the Joneses and have now seen 10, 20, 30, or even 40 percent of their equity evaporate? Is it any wonder why folks are moon walking away from their mortgages as if they were contestants on Dancing with the Stars? I was a bit perplexed by the comments. I think the majority of people realize that the reason middle class Americans are feeling the pinch is because of a few major reasons:

#1 - The Crashing Dollar

US dollar

During the past two years the U.S. Dollar Index has declined by a stunning 21.7 percent. So who cares right? Well the fact that everything is now costing more, you should be concerned. Nothing drives this point deeper than traveling abroad. Anyone that read the comments saw that many were angry over the $250 a month (or $3,000) for vacations but do your realize that for a family of four, this probably means 4 to 5 days in Europe (if that) or a trip to Disneyworld in Florida? If you were to go outside the country you will see how savagely beaten the dollar is but guess what? Not many Americans travel outside the country:

US Passports

Source: Phil Gyford’s website

The author of the article references a few different articles and studies and arrives at an optimistic conclusion that 20 to 34 percent of Americans have passports. How many of these people actually travel beyond Mexico and Canada is another issue altogether. But nothing will drive the point faster and harder that your greenback is no longer worth as much as you would think. Another major factor now slamming the American budget is rising fuel costs:

#2 - Spiking Fuel Costs

Gas Los Angeles

For a gallon of gas in Los Angeles, since October of 2006 the cost has increased a stunning 64 percent. Now beyond the fact that fuel is used for your automobile, rising food costs are directly correlated to this rise since many transportation companies simply push the additional cost of the fuel to the end user. So this impacts the bottom line of your budget as well. And here in Southern California especially, as highlighted in the previous article housing costs are what totally ruin your budget:

#3 - The Housing Bubble

LA vs Nations County Prices

Just take a look at that graph. The cost of a median priced home in Los Angeles County went from $200,000 in 2000 to a peak of $550,000 in August of 2007. That is a stunning 175 percent rise in 7 years! It almost tripled in value and this is something that many states (fortunately) did not have to go through because the correction is now coming fast and furious. As of last month in March, the median price is now at $440,000 for Los Angeles which amounts to a drop of $110,000 in 7 months for a county with 10,000,000 people!

This would be no problem if wages kept moving up but they have not. So what does the breakdown of household family income look like in the United States?

Household income (overall percent of US households over):

Percent of Households over:

$65,000 34.72%

$80,000 25.6%

$91,705 20.0%

$100,000 17.8%

$118,200 10%

$166,200 5%

$200,000 2.67%

$250,000 1.5%

$1,600,000 0.12%

So even that hypothetical $100,000 family is in the company of only 17.8 percent of all U.S. households. What about the other 82.2 percent of people? Wages haven’t even come close to keeping pace with a declining dollar and the rising costs of pretty much everything else.

So with that said, let us now look at living large with $25,000 in Southern California.

Living La Vida Loca with $25,000…Per Year!

You may think this is some kind of perverse joke especially after talking about a six-figure family but 35 percent of people in the United States live off of $25,000 or less:

Income Levels

So in such a high cost area such as Southern California we are going to need to tighten our belts but let us put together a budget for someone making $25,000 or less:

$25,000 Budget

We’ll use the previous budget line items as reference points. In this instance, however we are assuming this is for a single person with no kids, which does make a difference. The first thing you may be wondering is, “where in the world can I rent a place for $750 a month in Los Angeles?” Not only will I show you a place but I’ll put you close to downtown baby!

LA apartment

This is for a single unfurnished place with 1 bath and a minimum 1 year lease. You have paid water, gas, and electricity but we’ll leave the above $35 in case the apartment you rent doesn’t have these amenities. So we’ve already taken care of the most expensive item for many people in California which is housing. Not only that, we’ve put you right in the middle of the entertainment so you can attend any free events (which are many) right in your neighborhood.

You don’t need a landline. We’ll go with Virgin Mobile and get a pre-paid cell phone that requires you to put in at least $30 each 3 months. With this, you can make enough calls and if you are making $25,000 or less you probably won’t be calling all over the country. This will be sufficient to keep you connected to the real world.

If you work near downtown, we can eliminate the cost of the car but we’ll assume that like most people in Southern California, you’ll need a car to get around. We’ll be paying cash for an excellent fuel economical car, a 1994 Honda Civic with manual transmission:

1994 Honda

For $2,900, you can get yourself a car that with manual transmission and careful driving will get you anywhere from 33 to 35 MPG. Assuming you drive 15,000 miles per year, you’ll only be spending $133 a month on fuel even at the current $3.85 average price per gallon in Los Angeles. So far it doesn’t seem we are being thrown back to Great Depression like living. You hear how much people are complaining about fuel for their car yet they drive 10 MPG tanks designed for wilderness driving. We are also putting away a modest 5 percent into a 401(k) assuming our work place allows this.

In regards to food, $300 for a month is sufficient for a single person if you know what and where to buy your groceries. Los Angeles is great since we have stores that are not your Vons, Ralphs, or Trader Joes that actually cost quite a bit. You can go to your local neighborhood market and buy fruits and vegetables at a very low price. Also, you can go to the local 99 Cent Store and load up on the following:

2 Loaves of Bread ($2)

Sandwich Meat ($2)

Condiments ($3)

Pringles ($2)

Granola Bars ($2)

Yogurts ($3)

2 Boxes of Cereal ($2)

Half-Gallon of Milk ($2)

Pasta and Sauce ($4)

2 Salad Bags ($2)

Juice ($2)

Frozen Chicken Breasts ($2)

Total for the above? $28 bucks and this should be enough for your brown bag lunch. You’ll have a sandwich, some healthy juice, a granola bar, and a yogurt. For breakfast you can have a bowl of cereal or some fruit that you’ll buy at the grocery store. You can buy a good amount of veggies for about $20 to $30 at your local market. For dinner, you can have a nice pasta dinner with a salad and mix it up with some chicken breasts which are easy to prepare. All in all, you’ll be spending $60 to $75 a week keeping you within the $300 budget. This suddenly takes me back to my college days!

For entertainment, you better find something to do in downtown Los Angeles! Free museums, people getting rid of Dodgers tickets on the cheap, movies, or simply renting a few movies to watch. This is the kind of entertainment you’ll need to adhere to given your budget. You have enough allocated for a few nice camping trips during the year since these are extremely affordable and most of your cost will go to buying the right gear and equipment. Some ideas for example include making a day out of going to the Getty which I absolutely love and is free aside from the parking fee which isn’t more than $10. In regards to healthcare, we’ll assume you have a job that covers that cost or join the ranks of the 47 million uninsured.

For clothes you can shop at Ross and get nice clothing on the cheap. If you work in a business environment you simply cannot go in looking like Swampthing so this is where you’ll shop. In regards to haircuts, simply go to your local barber and keep the hairstyle to something average and not your typical E! television styles. Most local barbers charge $12 to $15 for a regular haircut.

So there you have it. Living large on $25,000. We are in the lower 35 percent of all earners but we do not come close to living a life similar to those in the Great Depression. In fact, we have a car, a place in one of the most expensive places on Earth, and eat relatively well. I suppose this is the difference we are now facing. It is possible to live on a lower income as long as you manage your expectations. The above budget won’t even come remotely close to handling a mortgage payment or even a higher priced home which was the point with the six-figure family. Even they couldn’t afford that home yet they psychologically feel that this $25,000 person is living a bachelor life and they want the “middle-class” lifestyle and why wouldn’t this expectation be there? With their income they are in the top 17.8 percent of all households so clearly it is beyond the “middle” if we are to look at the raw numbers. Many homes in Los Angeles will rent for $1,500 to $2,000 depending on the area so this is not in the cards for the $25,000 earner but clearly many that make that $100,000 have elected to do so and many readers on this site fall in that category.

The bottom line is housing prices have become so distorted here in Southern California and that is why they are fiercely correcting. Anyone thinking we’ll be back at peak prices is as delusional as a earner making $25,000 and thinking they’ll be able to buy a home. But if you manage your expectations and don’t chase the crowd, you can have a good healthy life here in sunny California.

Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information

Related Posts:
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Buena Park. $511,000 for 864 Square Feet. Even Knott’s Berry Farm is Cheaper!
Real Estate Olympics: Cliff Diving Prices in California. Median Price Down 30 Percent Statewide.
Real Homes of Genius: 675 square foot home in Lynwood California at $425,000?!
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Santa Ana. 498 Square Feet for $440,000, What a Deal!
Real Homes of Genius: $450,000 3/2 Home in Compton? Yes folks, Smoking Housing Bubble Peyote Will Make You See Things Like This!

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Filed under: Options

Visa (NYSE: V) is recently up $1.39 to $76.44.

V will report its first quarterly EPS results since its IPO tonight.

SunTrust says: “We project that significant prospective operating leverage will propel EPS, EBITDA and FCF well ahead of organic revenue growth.”

V call option volume of 39,763 contracts compares to put volume of 10,938 contracts. V May option implied volatility of 66 is above its five-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price uncertainty.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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A Blown Mortgage reader sent me a copy of a report published in 2004-2005 titled America’s Home Forecast: The Next Decade for Housing and Mortgage Finance (pdf) that portends the continued growth of the US housing market between 2004-2013 at an annualized rate of 5-6% depending on supply/demand issues. This report is a great read to remind us of all the BS that got thrown our way as we approached the crest of the bubble.

We should have known better when we take a closer look at the authors of the report:

Published by the Homeownership Alliance

Written By:
David Berson - Chief Economist, Fannie Mae
David Lereah - Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors®
Paul Merski - Chief Economist, Independent Community Bankers of America
Frank Nothaft - Chief Economist, Freddie Mac
David Seiders - Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders

See any pumpers on that list?

Out of the 64-pages of bubblicious BS this below is my favorite segment:

No sign of a national home price bubble
There has not been a single year over the past half century in which the national average home value has declined in the U.S. (see Figure 18). This is a period that has included periods of both severe recession and high mortgage rates, or both (as occurred during 1981-1982 when the unemployment rate exceeded 10 percent and mortgage rates reached 18 percent). In fact, the last sustained drop in national average home values occurred during the Great Depression, when the unemployment rate hit 25 percent. With the national unemployment rate below 6 percent, mortgage rates low and economic growth improving, the likelihood of a decline in home prices at the national level is quite remote.


Figure 18
U.S. Home Prices Have Grown Every Year Since 1950
Annual Growth in Nominal Home Values

What do you think - how did we think that the roller-coaster would keep going up?

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Caterpillar (CAT), Citigroup Inc. (C), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Honeywell Intl (HON)

The mood this week has changed sharply from the post-GE disappointment, despite weak economics still hitting the screens every morning in economic numbers. In fact, the week went much better than it was looking on Monday, and everyone remembered the old chant, “markets climb up a wall of worry.” Even oil heading above the $116 per barrel isn’t killing things. Here are unofficial closing levels:

  • DJIA 12,852.21 (+231.72; +1.84%)
  • S&P 500 1,390.55 (+24.99; +1.83%)
  • NASDAQ 2,402.97 (+61.14; +2.61%)
  • 10YR-TBOND 3.743% (+0.014)

We put together a list of stocks over at 247WallSt.com with household names that we think can double by the end of the recession.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) down after reporting a net loss of $358 million on $1.5 billion in revenues. Losses were narrowed from the same quarter last year. The company also released plans to cut additional cost. If insiders want that stock to go up, they need to fire Hector Ruiz. Shares were down 1.6% at $6.09 going into the close.

E TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) shares jumped despite a quarterly loss of $91.2 million. Although disappointing, investors seemed pleased about the 60,000 increase in customers. Shares were up almost 10% at $3.98 going into the close.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) shares are up after the company posted earnings that beat expectations. The results showed EPS of $1.45, well above Thomson Financial expectation of $1.22 EPS. Shares were up 8% at $85.02 going into the close.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) rose today after it posted first-quarter results that were better than many expected. For the second quarter in the row, the bank showed a loss, this time $5.11 billion off of revenues of $13.22 billion. Write-downs totaled $16 billion. The company also announced it will cut 9,000 jobs. Shares were up 4.5% at $25.13 going into the close.

Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) soared after first quarter earnings beat street estimates. Showing an EPS of $4.12 on $5.19 in revenues, net income of $1.31 billion grew by 30% compared first quarter 2007. Shares closed up 20% at $539.83.

Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) announced first quarter results, with a 22% growth in profit coming heavily from international markets. Net income of $643 and $0.85 EPS beat street estimates and pushed the stock up. Shares closed at 6% at $61.05.

Jon Ogg is a producer and editor of the Special Situation newsletter and the 10 Stocks Under $10 weekly newsletter at 247WallSt.com.

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