Archive for May 1st, 2008

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, Launches, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Ford Motor (F), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI), Verizon Communications (VZ), Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Before the bell: Futures higher following deal news; investors await Fed move

Kirk Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp. is planning to offer $8.50 per share for up to 20 million shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), a 13.3% premium over Friday’s close. Tracinda now owns 100 million Ford shares, or 4.7% of the outstanding stock, which would increase to 5.6% when the offer is completed. Ford shares climbed over 6.5% in premarket trading. The deal, announced recently, is helping stock futures’ upward movement.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) reported a 9.8% rise in its first-quarter earnings as its wireless division attracted more customers than other carriers. Excluding items, earnings were 61 cents per shares, inline with estimates. Revenue rose 5.5% to $23.8 billion, also inline with estimates. VZ shares are up 1.9% in premarket trading.

According to The New York Post, Barry Diller and Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LINTA) Chairman John Malone are continuing to talk about “a deal that would trade one or more of IAC Interactive (NASDAQ: IACI)’s assets for Liberty’s ownership stake in IAC.” Diller is also “expected to meet with his board this week to restart the process of breaking up his company into five separate pieces.”

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) shares are up nearly 2% in premarket trading as the world’s largest credit-card processor is expected to post quarterly results late in the day and report strong profits for the second quarter.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) raised the quarterly dividend 10% to 33 cents a share, payable June 20 to holders of record June 5.

The New York Times reports that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) researchers “have a software technology intended to do for digital images on the Web what the company’s original PageRank software did for searches of Web pages.” VisualRank is an algorithm that blends “image-recognition software methods with techniques for weighting and ranking images that look most similar.”

And the latest on the 3G iPhone Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is expected to launch soon comes from a company, Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry), which has reportedly landed orders for the assembly of the much talked about iPhone. Shipments, it is said, are to begin in June this year, for three million units, but total shipment is expected to be 24-25 million units throughout its life-cycle. Foxconn is currently the sole manufacturer of first-generation iPhones.

Filed under: Competitive strategy, Wal-Mart (WMT)

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has been trumpeting the fact for over a year now that it wants to get more higher-income shoppers into its locations to buy more higher-margin goods. Is it winning that strategy? Wal-Mart U.S. Chief Eduardo Castro-Wright indicated this week at a Lehman Brothers conference that not only is the retailer keeping its core base of low to mid-income shoppers, but it’s recruiting more affluent ones too.

The reason? The economic downturn that’s seeing energy and gas prices at their highest levels in decades plus the rising cost of food — among other things. Castro-Wright said that while Wal-Mart is reaching more affluent customers at this point in time, the real zinger is that the retailer is in a position to keep them shopping at Wal-Mart once the economy improves. That’s what Wal-Mart always wanted — growing its long-term customer base.

The actual shopper demographic Wal-Mart is talking about here contains those shoppers making $55,000 to $70,000 per year (or more), of which February traffic increased 0.7% and increased 2.2% in March. Wal-Mart’s old staple, low prices, seems to be the biggest hit with customers right now — even though Wal-Mart dropped the “Always Low Prices” moniker into a more self-help motto like “Save Money. Live Better” last year. One large change I witnessed recently that’s definitely geared towards the more affluent customer was the home electronics section, which resembled a high-end electronics store more than a big-box mass merchant.

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Bank of America announced that it plans to work-out approximately $40 billion of loans in trouble at Countrywide as part of it’s acquisition of the failed mortgage lender. BofA estimates that the $40 billion will result in a little over a quarter-million homeowners keeping their homes instead of losing them to foreclosure.

From the Pacific Business News on the new BofA initiative:

In addition, BofA says it will continue its policy of allowing tenants living in properties facing foreclosure to remain on site for 60 days after the completion of foreclosure proceedings. They will receive $2,000 to defray moving expenses if they leave voluntarily within 30 days of the completion of foreclosure proceedings.

BofA (NYSE: BAC) says it plans to spend $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years in community-development efforts that focus on affordable housing, economic development and consumer and small-business lending. BofA is the second-largest bank in the Sacramento region, based on deposits, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

You can read the full press release from Bank of America on the initiative here.

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Competitive strategy, Google (GOOG), Wal-Mart (WMT)

Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has risen from the ranks of startup to one of the most powerful advertising forces on the planet in about a decade. Although it maintains a corporate mantra of “don’t be evil,” the company’s absolute power over the world of internet advertising borders on on the perception of monopoly just because it has the best product in all the right places. Notice I used the word “perception” there. Is Google a monopoly because it simply has the best product that customers apparently use and love? Of course not.

Similar to how Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) rose to power, Google got there by providing something the competitors didn’t: the best product presented in the best way that was the most useful for the consumer. Wal-Mart opened more stores and offered the lowest prices, and consumers noticed and made it the largest retailer in the world as a result. Google is the largest internet advertiser in the world using the same means in a way, but like Wal-Mart, it has competitors (albeit, with much smaller market shares).

But when a company controls so much of the ad market in the online space, smaller advertisers and businesses that want to break onto the scene and fight with larger competitors that may be slower and tuned out will have to use Google at some point. To grow, one simply cannot do business the way it was done in the past. Just like the small and scrappy manufacturer trying to get into Wal-Mart but can’t due to the larger companies offering the same widgets at much lower prices, this effect works inside Google too. Advertisers bid on keywords and if they can remain relevant to the consumer within Google’s search results, they can out-spend smaller advertisers day in and day out. Are these market forces some kind of monopolistic behavior? Google doesn’t control this — it is simply giving the most relevant information to the customer. Still, one can see the spot Google could be in very shortly, if it isn’t already there.

First, I want to thank everyone that participated in the discussion about the hypothetical family making $100,000 a year with 2 kids and showing how $100,000 doesn’t go as far as many would expect especially in high cost areas. I also noticed that most of the comments that went something like, “cut out the […]
Related Posts:
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Real Estate Olympics: Cliff Diving Prices in California. Median Price Down 30 Percent Statewide.
Real Homes of Genius: 675 square foot home in Lynwood California at $425,000?!
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Santa Ana. 498 Square Feet for $440,000, What a Deal!
Real Homes of Genius: $450,000 3/2 Home in Compton? Yes folks, Smoking Housing Bubble Peyote Will Make You See Things Like This!

First, I want to thank everyone that participated in the discussion about the hypothetical family making $100,000 a year with 2 kids and showing how $100,000 doesn’t go as far as many would expect especially in high cost areas. I also noticed that most of the comments that went something like, “cut out the entertainment!” or “brown bag it!” or “why give to charity when you need it?” were from folks that simply are not from high cost areas. I thought most would quickly see that combined housing costs from the mortgage payment, taxes, and maintenance were eating up over 47 percent of their net take home income. Keep in mind that this is on a home that was bought for $385,000 which I know seems absurd to anyone not from the area; but for all of you out of state that is enough to buy you a Real Home of Genius here in California. The purpose of the article was to highlight that this couple wasn’t your typical Southern California so-called “upper middle-class” couple with a Range Rover and Lexus in the driveway. In that case, they would have a car payment of $700 or higher on each vehicle and adjusted insurance rates and higher fuel costs.

Anyone here in Orange County and Los Angeles understands that many people think of being middle class as having two luxury cars, all rooms remodeled, and every upgraded gadget that’ll make your entertainment system seem like NASA central. How many friends and family do you know that have similar budgets yet drive ridiculously expensive cars and are still struggling with debt? Not only that, how many jumped into this absurd housing bubble bonanza to keep up with the Joneses and have now seen 10, 20, 30, or even 40 percent of their equity evaporate? Is it any wonder why folks are moon walking away from their mortgages as if they were contestants on Dancing with the Stars? I was a bit perplexed by the comments. I think the majority of people realize that the reason middle class Americans are feeling the pinch is because of a few major reasons:

#1 - The Crashing Dollar

US dollar

During the past two years the U.S. Dollar Index has declined by a stunning 21.7 percent. So who cares right? Well the fact that everything is now costing more, you should be concerned. Nothing drives this point deeper than traveling abroad. Anyone that read the comments saw that many were angry over the $250 a month (or $3,000) for vacations but do your realize that for a family of four, this probably means 4 to 5 days in Europe (if that) or a trip to Disneyworld in Florida? If you were to go outside the country you will see how savagely beaten the dollar is but guess what? Not many Americans travel outside the country:

US Passports

Source: Phil Gyford’s website

The author of the article references a few different articles and studies and arrives at an optimistic conclusion that 20 to 34 percent of Americans have passports. How many of these people actually travel beyond Mexico and Canada is another issue altogether. But nothing will drive the point faster and harder that your greenback is no longer worth as much as you would think. Another major factor now slamming the American budget is rising fuel costs:

#2 - Spiking Fuel Costs

Gas Los Angeles

For a gallon of gas in Los Angeles, since October of 2006 the cost has increased a stunning 64 percent. Now beyond the fact that fuel is used for your automobile, rising food costs are directly correlated to this rise since many transportation companies simply push the additional cost of the fuel to the end user. So this impacts the bottom line of your budget as well. And here in Southern California especially, as highlighted in the previous article housing costs are what totally ruin your budget:

#3 - The Housing Bubble

LA vs Nations County Prices

Just take a look at that graph. The cost of a median priced home in Los Angeles County went from $200,000 in 2000 to a peak of $550,000 in August of 2007. That is a stunning 175 percent rise in 7 years! It almost tripled in value and this is something that many states (fortunately) did not have to go through because the correction is now coming fast and furious. As of last month in March, the median price is now at $440,000 for Los Angeles which amounts to a drop of $110,000 in 7 months for a county with 10,000,000 people!

This would be no problem if wages kept moving up but they have not. So what does the breakdown of household family income look like in the United States?

Household income (overall percent of US households over):

Percent of Households over:

$65,000 34.72%

$80,000 25.6%

$91,705 20.0%

$100,000 17.8%

$118,200 10%

$166,200 5%

$200,000 2.67%

$250,000 1.5%

$1,600,000 0.12%

So even that hypothetical $100,000 family is in the company of only 17.8 percent of all U.S. households. What about the other 82.2 percent of people? Wages haven’t even come close to keeping pace with a declining dollar and the rising costs of pretty much everything else.

So with that said, let us now look at living large with $25,000 in Southern California.

Living La Vida Loca with $25,000…Per Year!

You may think this is some kind of perverse joke especially after talking about a six-figure family but 35 percent of people in the United States live off of $25,000 or less:

Income Levels

So in such a high cost area such as Southern California we are going to need to tighten our belts but let us put together a budget for someone making $25,000 or less:

$25,000 Budget

We’ll use the previous budget line items as reference points. In this instance, however we are assuming this is for a single person with no kids, which does make a difference. The first thing you may be wondering is, “where in the world can I rent a place for $750 a month in Los Angeles?” Not only will I show you a place but I’ll put you close to downtown baby!

LA apartment

This is for a single unfurnished place with 1 bath and a minimum 1 year lease. You have paid water, gas, and electricity but we’ll leave the above $35 in case the apartment you rent doesn’t have these amenities. So we’ve already taken care of the most expensive item for many people in California which is housing. Not only that, we’ve put you right in the middle of the entertainment so you can attend any free events (which are many) right in your neighborhood.

You don’t need a landline. We’ll go with Virgin Mobile and get a pre-paid cell phone that requires you to put in at least $30 each 3 months. With this, you can make enough calls and if you are making $25,000 or less you probably won’t be calling all over the country. This will be sufficient to keep you connected to the real world.

If you work near downtown, we can eliminate the cost of the car but we’ll assume that like most people in Southern California, you’ll need a car to get around. We’ll be paying cash for an excellent fuel economical car, a 1994 Honda Civic with manual transmission:

1994 Honda

For $2,900, you can get yourself a car that with manual transmission and careful driving will get you anywhere from 33 to 35 MPG. Assuming you drive 15,000 miles per year, you’ll only be spending $133 a month on fuel even at the current $3.85 average price per gallon in Los Angeles. So far it doesn’t seem we are being thrown back to Great Depression like living. You hear how much people are complaining about fuel for their car yet they drive 10 MPG tanks designed for wilderness driving. We are also putting away a modest 5 percent into a 401(k) assuming our work place allows this.

In regards to food, $300 for a month is sufficient for a single person if you know what and where to buy your groceries. Los Angeles is great since we have stores that are not your Vons, Ralphs, or Trader Joes that actually cost quite a bit. You can go to your local neighborhood market and buy fruits and vegetables at a very low price. Also, you can go to the local 99 Cent Store and load up on the following:

2 Loaves of Bread ($2)

Sandwich Meat ($2)

Condiments ($3)

Pringles ($2)

Granola Bars ($2)

Yogurts ($3)

2 Boxes of Cereal ($2)

Half-Gallon of Milk ($2)

Pasta and Sauce ($4)

2 Salad Bags ($2)

Juice ($2)

Frozen Chicken Breasts ($2)

Total for the above? $28 bucks and this should be enough for your brown bag lunch. You’ll have a sandwich, some healthy juice, a granola bar, and a yogurt. For breakfast you can have a bowl of cereal or some fruit that you’ll buy at the grocery store. You can buy a good amount of veggies for about $20 to $30 at your local market. For dinner, you can have a nice pasta dinner with a salad and mix it up with some chicken breasts which are easy to prepare. All in all, you’ll be spending $60 to $75 a week keeping you within the $300 budget. This suddenly takes me back to my college days!

For entertainment, you better find something to do in downtown Los Angeles! Free museums, people getting rid of Dodgers tickets on the cheap, movies, or simply renting a few movies to watch. This is the kind of entertainment you’ll need to adhere to given your budget. You have enough allocated for a few nice camping trips during the year since these are extremely affordable and most of your cost will go to buying the right gear and equipment. Some ideas for example include making a day out of going to the Getty which I absolutely love and is free aside from the parking fee which isn’t more than $10. In regards to healthcare, we’ll assume you have a job that covers that cost or join the ranks of the 47 million uninsured.

For clothes you can shop at Ross and get nice clothing on the cheap. If you work in a business environment you simply cannot go in looking like Swampthing so this is where you’ll shop. In regards to haircuts, simply go to your local barber and keep the hairstyle to something average and not your typical E! television styles. Most local barbers charge $12 to $15 for a regular haircut.

So there you have it. Living large on $25,000. We are in the lower 35 percent of all earners but we do not come close to living a life similar to those in the Great Depression. In fact, we have a car, a place in one of the most expensive places on Earth, and eat relatively well. I suppose this is the difference we are now facing. It is possible to live on a lower income as long as you manage your expectations. The above budget won’t even come remotely close to handling a mortgage payment or even a higher priced home which was the point with the six-figure family. Even they couldn’t afford that home yet they psychologically feel that this $25,000 person is living a bachelor life and they want the “middle-class” lifestyle and why wouldn’t this expectation be there? With their income they are in the top 17.8 percent of all households so clearly it is beyond the “middle” if we are to look at the raw numbers. Many homes in Los Angeles will rent for $1,500 to $2,000 depending on the area so this is not in the cards for the $25,000 earner but clearly many that make that $100,000 have elected to do so and many readers on this site fall in that category.

The bottom line is housing prices have become so distorted here in Southern California and that is why they are fiercely correcting. Anyone thinking we’ll be back at peak prices is as delusional as a earner making $25,000 and thinking they’ll be able to buy a home. But if you manage your expectations and don’t chase the crowd, you can have a good healthy life here in sunny California.

Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information

Related Posts:
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Buena Park. $511,000 for 864 Square Feet. Even Knott’s Berry Farm is Cheaper!
Real Estate Olympics: Cliff Diving Prices in California. Median Price Down 30 Percent Statewide.
Real Homes of Genius: 675 square foot home in Lynwood California at $425,000?!
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Santa Ana. 498 Square Feet for $440,000, What a Deal!
Real Homes of Genius: $450,000 3/2 Home in Compton? Yes folks, Smoking Housing Bubble Peyote Will Make You See Things Like This!

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Filed under: After the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, General Motors (GM), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Citigroup Inc. (C), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI), Economic data, Garmin Ltd (GRMN), Federal Reserve

If you thought the news going to be the actual FOMC cut was the key today, it wasn’t. The bias and tone for more rate cuts was the most important, and the tone was not hawkish enough. Traders wanted to see a signal of the end of rate cuts, at least for now, so that oil and gold would tank and that the dollar would recover.

GDP came out and showed a +0.6% gain, meaning the official recession isn’t technically here yet. Warren Buffett said it is, and he might be good enough of a judge over anyone. Regardless, this is the first positive month for the S&P after it just missed a positive month in March.

Below are the unofficial closing levels for key US index levels:

  • DJIA 12,818.58 (-13.36; -0.10%)
  • S&P500 1,385.47 (-5.47; -0.39%)
  • NASDAQ 2,412.80 (-13.30; -0.55%)
  • 10YR-BOND 3.7590% (-0.066%)
  • 52-WEEK LOWS.

Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD) was upgraded by KeyBanc Capital Markets to Buy and by Cowen & Co. to Outperform. Yesterday, Buffalo Wild Wings reported strong quarter results with a 22% revenue boost and earnings meeting street expectations. Shares were up 18% to $30.74 in the final minutes of the day.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Despite FOMC sell-off, April finally showers money

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Filed under: International markets, China, Brazil, Newsletters, Freep’t McMoRan Copper (FCX), Commodities, Stocks to Buy

“There’s no doubt about it: vital resources are in a bull market of gigantic proportions,” note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger Conrad.

“The co-editors of Vital Resource Investor caution that “no market moves in a straight line, and in commodities, the action is often extremely violent.” However, for long-term investors, they offer some favorites in iron ore, aluminum and copper.

“All commodity bull markets are ultimately gored by demand destruction, alternatives and new supply. But it will almost certainly be years before that happens to this one. And that means plenty of money will be made along the way.

“We’re still extremely bullish on iron ore as the market remains in deficit and prices continue to rise. Chinese domestic supply has been falling and, if this continues, imports will make up the difference, thereby helping the miners.

“China consumes 51% of the world’s iron supply. Portfolio holding Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE: RIO), the world’s largest iron ore producer, will benefit from the shortage in iron ore supply.

“We favor aluminum in the industrial metals sector. We’ve been advocating aluminum for some time, and the market’s finally going our way. Aluminum prices have been impacted by lack of available power in China and South Africa and higher alumina and bauxite prices.

Continue reading Mining trio: Iron ore, aluminum and copper

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Filed under: Competitive strategy, Google (GOOG), Wal-Mart (WMT)

Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) has risen from the ranks of startup to one of the most powerful advertising forces on the planet in about a decade. Although it maintains a corporate mantra of “don’t be evil,” the company’s absolute power over the world of internet advertising borders on on the perception of monopoly just because it has the best product in all the right places. Notice I used the word “perception” there. Is Google a monopoly because it simply has the best product that customers apparently use and love? Of course not.

Similar to how Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) rose to power, Google got there by providing something the competitors didn’t: the best product presented in the best way that was the most useful for the consumer. Wal-Mart opened more stores and offered the lowest prices, and consumers noticed and made it the largest retailer in the world as a result. Google is the largest internet advertiser in the world using the same means in a way, but like Wal-Mart, it has competitors (albeit, with much smaller market shares).

But when a company controls so much of the ad market in the online space, smaller advertisers and businesses that want to break onto the scene and fight with larger competitors that may be slower and tuned out will have to use Google at some point. To grow, one simply cannot do business the way it was done in the past. Just like the small and scrappy manufacturer trying to get into Wal-Mart but can’t due to the larger companies offering the same widgets at much lower prices, this effect works inside Google too. Advertisers bid on keywords and if they can remain relevant to the consumer within Google’s search results, they can out-spend smaller advertisers day in and day out. Are these market forces some kind of monopolistic behavior? Google doesn’t control this — it is simply giving the most relevant information to the customer. Still, one can see the spot Google could be in very shortly, if it isn’t already there.

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Reader Paul (big hat tip to him) pulled a key comment out of the B of A press release issued earlier this week that addressed Bank of America’s efforts to help homeowners keep their home. The comment, burried at the bottom of the release was:

“We will continue to work with distressed borrowers to match the customer’s repayment ability with the appropriate loss mitigation option, including loan modifications, forbearances, repayment plans, lower rates and principal reductions,” McGee said. “

Paul thought it was absurd that no one pressed McGee on the last point which was “principal reductions.” This, he argued correctly, is a massive change in policy for the industry, as banks have been fighting tooth and nail to make sure

Source [blownmortgage]

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