Archive for May 4th, 2008
Filed under: Wal-Mart (WMT), Columns
Welcome to the 59th installment of The Wal-Mart Weekly, a column dedicated to bringing you insight, wit, facts, results, opinions, and just a bit of everything else when it comes to a very hot topic these days: Wal-Mart.
In this week’s Wal-Mart Weekly, I’ll begin a multi-part column that takes a look inside some of Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.’s (NYSE: WMT) annual shareholder meeting proposals. As many of you may know, Wal-Mart’s annual shareholder’s meeting happens in early June, about a month from now.
I covered it live from the show floor last year, where all 11 shareholder proposals were easily and soundly defeated. Nothing new here, as Wal-Mart’s board has a habit of glossing past many proposals that would give its shareholders a glimpse into its internal operations.
So, let’s start off by looking at a shareholder proposal that asks for more public visibility into Wal-Mart’s political donations. This is a great question for the retailer, and one would think that if Wal-Mart has nothing to hide, it would open the transparency book to answer this proposal. We’ll only know in a month when the meeting actually happens, but we’ll consider what the retailer could do in this column. Visit this link to get a rundown on Wal-Mart’s SEC Form 14A for its upcoming shareholder’s meeting, and then join me after the break.
Continue reading The Wal-Mart Weekly: Examining upcoming shareholder resolutions, Part 1
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There seems to be a false sense of security that somehow, the credit (debt) crisis is now slowly floating away into space. The market rally is indicative of this false sense of security. All bad news is ignored while slim glimmers of good news are enough to spark a rally. We are […] Related Posts: ■The Housing Wave of the Future: Two Main Mortgage Tsunamis. ■Did you Feel That? Housing Just Hit the Third Rail. ■What really goes on with Black-matter SIVs. A Micro-case study. My Experience with Prosper and how it is Similar to the Current Mortgage Debacle. ■The Rent vs. Buying Dilemma: Mortgages the Southern California Way. 3 Factors to look at: Increase Rental Prices, Housing Price Declines, and Tighter Credit Markets. ■Second Quarter Housing All-Stars Recap: Subprime closes shop, Prime Loans Gone Wild, and the Future of Housing.
There seems to be a false sense of security that somehow, the credit (debt) crisis is now slowly floating away into space. The market rally is indicative of this false sense of security. All bad news is ignored while slim glimmers of good news are enough to spark a rally. We are starting to look like the first quarter of 2007 when the idea that sub-prime was going to be contained in a tightly sealed silo and the market rallied all the way through August, only to be slashed to its current level. I’m not sure what data the bulls are looking at but it really doesn’t point to a recovery for sometime. In fact, many states are now revising their budgets for the fiscal year and things are a lot worse than they once appeared. California is now looking at a $20 billion budget deficit revised from the earlier $14.5 billion deficit only a few months ago. These are things that I hope most of you are already aware of. Yet the focus has been taken away from the actual data in these toxic mortgages. Have things reached their apex of crap? Unfortunately they have not and let us go through a few reasons for this.
First, we’ll be looking at a sampling of 1% of first lien mortgages from the Fed that was put out in March of 2008:

The first thing I want to draw your attention to is the mean of these loans in various mortgage products. Overall, what we are seeing is distress on loan balances that seem below the median price of a home in the United States. The balances are not that high but remember that these are only for first lien mortgages and as we all know, many took out second mortgages and piggy-backed on these so they could go with little or no money down. It looks like the average size of a sub-prime loan ranges from $140,000 to $200,000. Out of the 1% sampling, we can get a quick glimpse and see that the bulk of these mortgages are ARMs; in this sample group over 70% of the sub-prime mortgage balance is in ARMs. So how are these mortgages performing?

Out of this small pool, already 47% of the ARMs are not current! 13% are foreclosed and 8% are real estate owned. Guess where that 16% 60+ is heading? You may be running the math above and see that it only adds up to 90%. You can assume that we are looking at 90+ lates or other forms of distress for that remaining 10%. Either way, the performance here is absolutely abysmal and that 16% is likely heading to further future distress in the market. That is baked in. But the next shoe to drop is the Alt-A loans. You know, the cream filling between an ultra-prime and sub-prime taco? Let us quickly look at that profile:

This is where things get even more disturbing. From this sample profile you’ll notice that the mean is much higher than the sub-prime pool. In fact, we have a range of $220,000 to $350,000 with the bulk of the loans being in the ARM profile and being close to $349,000. And by the way, many of these are in high priced areas like California. The first line above is observations which is the actual individual mortgages measured in this 1% sampling. Take a look at the first row and the second. Now you understand why the next shoe to drop is actually more distressing than the sub-prime profile. In fact, the size is comparable to the sub-prime portfolio. The nearly double in size is much more suspect and now that we know that ratings of AAA aren’t worth what they try to imply, we know many of these loans are going to go into some form of distress down the line. Look at the current status:

Already 19% of this portfolio is delinquent! And assuming many of these loans are in high priced areas like California, we have only entered the first stage of the debacle. In fact, the median year over year price was still positive as late as the 4th quarter of 2007! So you can certainly expect this number to balloon. Just take a look at the notice of default chart below:

What you’ll notice is how quickly these notice of defaults are turning into foreclosures. If this is any guide to the future, these loans are going to get hammered into the ground. And of course, California is living in another dimension assuming that we are at a bottom. Now take a look at the California “non-prime” aka banana republic mortgage profile:

Okay, so the share of loans that are non-prime and ARMs is 73.8%. 58.9% are current. 43.2% of these are resetting in the next 12 months. And things are bottoming out because?
And by the way, anyone that bought in California in the last three years is most likely already underwater so any of these additional bailouts will not help since these folks are in negative equity positions. Severe negative equity. And you notice how the above is first liens? A high percentage have junior liens and they have no desire to let the property go since it will very likely wipe their loan out completely. That is why you are seeing such a delay in short sales getting done. The loss mitigation department with the first lien in most cases wants to work with you but the junior note holders have no rush to cancel out their debt. That is why cram downs are so important to improving the market. This way, judges can force and approve these deals without other parties delaying simply because they are delusional they’ll get some money back. They won’t. The industry is shooting itself in the foot here. Many of the bailout proposals on the table at a minimum require some equity which rules out the vast majority of California loans. And that is assuming most people are willing to stay in an asset that is depreciating with no potential of equity for a very long time. Most are deciding to practice the new modern dance of moonwalking away from their mortgages.
I am extremely disappointed with our leadership and this isn’t just me:
“WASHINGTON DC (CNN) — A new poll suggests that President Bush is the most unpopular president in modern American history.”
A fitting way to end the final year in office. Can’t get lower approval than that and just look at the state of our country today. Am I blaming this entire mess on one person? Of course not! The current Congress is just as bad on both sides. But when you are commander and chief (aka CEO of the U.S.) the buck stops with you. If this were a publicly traded company he’d been fired a long time ago. No one has a crystal ball but even a toddler can understand that giving people mortgages that they cannot pay is a recipe for disaster. The invention of perpetual housing appreciation was a myth. The “ownership society” was an Orwellian ploy to screw the vast majority of Americans. When they marketed ARMs with the blessing of Greenspan it was for prudent investing and to free up additional resources. Of course the absolute inverse happened. And why not? No one bothered to enforce any of the regulations on the books. This government was preoccupied with destroying the future of our country and putting us into an incredible amount of debt. Anyone that thinks are country is in good financial shape is out of their minds and probably still thinks these mortgage products were good ideas. Thankfully, 70 percent of the country disagrees with how things are being handled at the top. When you build your entire fortune and fortress on a volcano, don’t be angry when it explodes.
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Related Posts: ■The Housing Wave of the Future: Two Main Mortgage Tsunamis. ■Did you Feel That? Housing Just Hit the Third Rail. ■What really goes on with Black-matter SIVs. A Micro-case study. My Experience with Prosper and how it is Similar to the Current Mortgage Debacle. ■The Rent vs. Buying Dilemma: Mortgages the Southern California Way. 3 Factors to look at: Increase Rental Prices, Housing Price Declines, and Tighter Credit Markets. ■Second Quarter Housing All-Stars Recap: Subprime closes shop, Prime Loans Gone Wild, and the Future of Housing.

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Posted by: admin in Goog news
Filed under: Products and services, Google (GOOG), Marketing and advertising
Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is rolling out another serious swipe at advertising in a relatively new category: mobile phone screens. Although mobile advertising is nothing new, Google’s intense focus on this new platform for display ads is ramping up excitement in some circles. After all, there are many more cellphones with mobile web capability than there are PCs worldwide. The trick is to get consumers and businesses using the mobile web. The iPhone has helped kickstart interest in this that had been pretty much dormant before last year for a range of reasons.
Google co-founder Sergey Brin even said at Google’s recent quarterly results conference call that “The mobile ads work very well … there’s nothing to dissuade me it would be any worse than traditional desktop search.” If that holds true — and we all know how desktop search has panned out — mobile search may be a huge blockbuster.
Faster data connections are available with many wireless carriers now, smartphone shipments are increasing, and attention to the mobile web has gained a huge amount of steam due to the iPhone and its full web browsing capabilities. Once Google’s Android operating system begins shipping and the mobile web is a single button press away, Google’s next frontier to attack will be the mobile search market. And, of course, selling display ads along with all those searches.
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Subprime loan delinquencies have stabilized after their torrid run-up in late payments according to the latest remittance reports. This is obviously a positive sign for the housing market as fewer 60-day delinquencies mean fewer eventual 90-day delinquencies and NOD’s. While analysts caution against over-reaching in the importance of the improvement they do note that it is significant.
Unfortunately, the metrics for foreclosures, REO properties and vacancies were all higher - which may negate any improvement in the delinquency number. Further, a full 33% of all tranches of the 80 deals tracked on the ABX index are rated ‘CCC’ which mean they are in imminent danger of default.
Compounding the problem is that subprime is just a small chunk of the market that is going to see delinquencies and NOD’s as we move through 2008-11. A majority of the loans that will be hardest hit are the limited-documentation, I/O, and Neg Am option ARMs that make up the Alt-A bucket of lending.
From the Reuters article on the slowing subprime loan delinquencies:
The performance of subprime mortgage loans pooled into U.S asset-backed securities showed signs of stabilizing in April, although analysts signal caution ahead.
Remittance reports, which provide a snapshot of subprime loan performance over the last 30 days, showed the pace of delinquencies slowed from the sharp climb in previous months, snapping a long period of pronounced deterioration.
“The deceleration is partly attributable to seasonality (tax refunds), but is nevertheless a fairly significant slowdown,” said Chris Flanagan, analyst at JPMorgan Securities.
…
“Given the historical seasonal pattern of significant percentage change improvements in 30- and 60-day delinquencies in April, we believe the latest report portends additional collateral performance deterioration over the next several months,” the firm said.
Cumulative losses on the risky home loans that support the series of ABX indexes continue to rise.
“This translates to 33 percent of all outstanding bonds across ABX reference entities are in imminent default. Even bonds originally in the ‘AA’ category have fallen to ‘CCC’ or lower,” said Flanagan.

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Filed under: Press releases, Industry, Politics
Bipartisan legislation aimed specifically at increasing government regulation of railroads threatens to hamstring 25 years of successful growth and investment by that industry. The Railroad Antitrust Enforcement Act of 2007 (H.R.1650) would effectively undo specific and narrow antitrust process exemptions that were provided for the railroads by the Staggers Rail Act of 1980. The Staggers act effectively halted what had previously been a massive and staggering decline by American railroads. Currently, the railroads are effectively and efficiently regulated by the Surface Transportation Board.
The American Association of Railroads reported in a press release, “Since Staggers, railroads and their customers have benefited enormously. Railroads have reinvested $420 billion back into their systems since 1980. The result has been improved service and safety, and nearly double their traffic volumes — all while lowering average rates by more than 50 percent in inflation-adjusted terms. That means the average rail [shipping customer] can move twice as much freight today for the same price as in 1980.” AAR further reports that a just-released Morgan Stanley survey found customer satisfaction with rail service is at a historical high.
It should also be noted that the devastating decline suffered by the railroads prior to passage of Staggers is arguably the lynch pin of this nation’s inability to establish reliable, desirable, and profitable mass transit for commuters by rail. The rate of investment by our freight railroads since 1980 could be one facet in bringing effective local and nationwide passenger rail service back within our grasp. The passage of H.R.1650 may effectively destroy any further hope of developing high-speed, cross-continental passenger rail service and the further expansion of local commuter rail services.
In an age when surface transportation is becoming incredibly more expensive and our airlines are in perilous distress, do we really need to limit our options by passing legislation which could severely injure a system that works? You may wish to consider contacting your legislators in an effort to halt H.R.1650 dead in its tracks.
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Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO)
The New York Times reports that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) are in serious talks about a merger. This report is different from the previous ones because there are no substantive leaks about the details of the talks - such as the price.
This could mean that these discussions could actually result in a deal. Although, the Times does report that one of the anonymous sources said there was a 50-50 chance of the deal going through. If a deal is done on a hostile basis, the odds are greater that Yahoo’s most talented people will leave. If a friendlier deal is negotiated, the result could be a more cohesive organization.
But here’s the thing that bothers me about all this. It would be quite difficult to combine the cultures of these two very different companies. And if a deal went through, competitors — such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) would take advantage of the confusion going on within the firms to poach customers. By the time the combined company had its act together, Google might end up taking a healthy chunk of their advertising market share.
Continue reading Will Microsoft buy Yahoo this weekend?
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Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO)
CNET News reports that Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has officially withdrawn its offer to acquire Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). Reportedly the two sides could not agree on price — Microsoft was willing to go up to $33 a share but Yahoo! wanted $37 — $5 billion more than Microsoft was prepared to spend.
Steve Ballmer also decided against a proxy fight for Yahoo! shareholder support — suggesting that it would be a time consuming and costly process that would give Yahoo! more time to make itself a less desirable acquisition for Microsoft.
Is this really the end of it? I expect Yahoo!’s stock to tumble and Microsoft’s to rise. Yahoo! stock was trading up to $29.70 in the after hours market as of 8pm last night. But I expect the stock to plummet to where it was before Microsoft made its offer — $19 a share.
Continue reading It’s off. Microsoft withdraws its offer for Yahoo — for now
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Posted by: admin in Goog news
Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, Launches, Consumer experience, Competitive strategy, Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), Ford Motor (F), IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI), Verizon Communications (VZ), Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Before the bell: Futures higher following deal news; investors await Fed move
Kirk Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp. is planning to offer $8.50 per share for up to 20 million shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), a 13.3% premium over Friday’s close. Tracinda now owns 100 million Ford shares, or 4.7% of the outstanding stock, which would increase to 5.6% when the offer is completed. Ford shares climbed over 6.5% in premarket trading. The deal, announced recently, is helping stock futures’ upward movement.
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) reported a 9.8% rise in its first-quarter earnings as its wireless division attracted more customers than other carriers. Excluding items, earnings were 61 cents per shares, inline with estimates. Revenue rose 5.5% to $23.8 billion, also inline with estimates. VZ shares are up 1.9% in premarket trading.
According to The New York Post, Barry Diller and Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LINTA) Chairman John Malone are continuing to talk about “a deal that would trade one or more of IAC Interactive (NASDAQ: IACI)’s assets for Liberty’s ownership stake in IAC.” Diller is also “expected to meet with his board this week to restart the process of breaking up his company into five separate pieces.”
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) shares are up nearly 2% in premarket trading as the world’s largest credit-card processor is expected to post quarterly results late in the day and report strong profits for the second quarter.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) raised the quarterly dividend 10% to 33 cents a share, payable June 20 to holders of record June 5.
The New York Times reports that Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) researchers “have a software technology intended to do for digital images on the Web what the company’s original PageRank software did for searches of Web pages.” VisualRank is an algorithm that blends “image-recognition software methods with techniques for weighting and ranking images that look most similar.”
And the latest on the 3G iPhone Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is expected to launch soon comes from a company, Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry), which has reportedly landed orders for the assembly of the much talked about iPhone. Shipments, it is said, are to begin in June this year, for three million units, but total shipment is expected to be 24-25 million units throughout its life-cycle. Foxconn is currently the sole manufacturer of first-generation iPhones.
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The rating agency downgraded $247 million in Countrywide subprime loan transactions as the transactions experienced 60-day delinquency rates of ranging from 7-40%. In the process the ratings agency affirmed the ratings of $2 billion of the subprime-based transactions. Here’s the breakdown - check out the delinquency numbers on these things!
CWABS 2003-BC3 60+ day Delinquency: 26.73% CWABS 2003-BC4 60+ day Delinquency: 18.01% CWABS 2003-BC5 60+ day Delinquency: 16.06% CWABS 2003-BC6 60+ day Delinquency: 12.35% CWABS 2003-5 Group 1 60+ day Delinquency: 6.79% CWABS 2003-5 Group 2 60+ day Delinquency: 40.99% CWABS 2004-BC4 60+ day Delinquency: 18.59% CWABS 2004-1 60+ day Delinquency: 14.92% CWABS 2004-5 60+ day Delinquency: 19.51% CWABS 2004-8 60+ day Delinquency: 28.68% CWABS 2004-11 60+ day Delinquency: 28.76%

Source [blownmortgage]
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There seems to be a false sense of security that somehow, the credit (debt) crisis is now slowly floating away into space. The market rally is indicative of this false sense of security. All bad news is ignored while slim glimmers of good news are enough to spark a rally. We are […] Related Posts: ■The Housing Wave of the Future: Two Main Mortgage Tsunamis. ■Did you Feel That? Housing Just Hit the Third Rail. ■What really goes on with Black-matter SIVs. A Micro-case study. My Experience with Prosper and how it is Similar to the Current Mortgage Debacle. ■The Rent vs. Buying Dilemma: Mortgages the Southern California Way. 3 Factors to look at: Increase Rental Prices, Housing Price Declines, and Tighter Credit Markets. ■Second Quarter Housing All-Stars Recap: Subprime closes shop, Prime Loans Gone Wild, and the Future of Housing.
There seems to be a false sense of security that somehow, the credit (debt) crisis is now slowly floating away into space. The market rally is indicative of this false sense of security. All bad news is ignored while slim glimmers of good news are enough to spark a rally. We are starting to look like the first quarter of 2007 when the idea that sub-prime was going to be contained in a tightly sealed silo and the market rallied all the way through August, only to be slashed to its current level. I’m not sure what data the bulls are looking at but it really doesn’t point to a recovery for sometime. In fact, many states are now revising their budgets for the fiscal year and things are a lot worse than they once appeared. California is now looking at a $20 billion budget deficit revised from the earlier $14.5 billion deficit only a few months ago. These are things that I hope most of you are already aware of. Yet the focus has been taken away from the actual data in these toxic mortgages. Have things reached their apex of crap? Unfortunately they have not and let us go through a few reasons for this.
First, we’ll be looking at a sampling of 1% of first lien mortgages from the Fed that was put out in March of 2008:

The first thing I want to draw your attention to is the mean of these loans in various mortgage products. Overall, what we are seeing is distress on loan balances that seem below the median price of a home in the United States. The balances are not that high but remember that these are only for first lien mortgages and as we all know, many took out second mortgages and piggy-backed on these so they could go with little or no money down. It looks like the average size of a sub-prime loan ranges from $140,000 to $200,000. Out of the 1% sampling, we can get a quick glimpse and see that the bulk of these mortgages are ARMs; in this sample group over 70% of the sub-prime mortgage balance is in ARMs. So how are these mortgages performing?

Out of this small pool, already 47% of the ARMs are not current! 13% are foreclosed and 8% are real estate owned. Guess where that 16% 60+ is heading? You may be running the math above and see that it only adds up to 90%. You can assume that we are looking at 90+ lates or other forms of distress for that remaining 10%. Either way, the performance here is absolutely abysmal and that 16% is likely heading to further future distress in the market. That is baked in. But the next shoe to drop is the Alt-A loans. You know, the cream filling between an ultra-prime and sub-prime taco? Let us quickly look at that profile:

This is where things get even more disturbing. From this sample profile you’ll notice that the mean is much higher than the sub-prime pool. In fact, we have a range of $220,000 to $350,000 with the bulk of the loans being in the ARM profile and being close to $349,000. And by the way, many of these are in high priced areas like California. The first line above is observations which is the actual individual mortgages measured in this 1% sampling. Take a look at the first row and the second. Now you understand why the next shoe to drop is actually more distressing than the sub-prime profile. In fact, the size is comparable to the sub-prime portfolio. The nearly double in size is much more suspect and now that we know that ratings of AAA aren’t worth what they try to imply, we know many of these loans are going to go into some form of distress down the line. Look at the current status:

Already 19% of this portfolio is delinquent! And assuming many of these loans are in high priced areas like California, we have only entered the first stage of the debacle. In fact, the median year over year price was still positive as late as the 4th quarter of 2007! So you can certainly expect this number to balloon. Just take a look at the notice of default chart below:

What you’ll notice is how quickly these notice of defaults are turning into foreclosures. If this is any guide to the future, these loans are going to get hammered into the ground. And of course, California is living in another dimension assuming that we are at a bottom. Now take a look at the California “non-prime” aka banana republic mortgage profile:

Okay, so the share of loans that are non-prime and ARMs is 73.8%. 58.9% are current. 43.2% of these are resetting in the next 12 months. And things are bottoming out because?
And by the way, anyone that bought in California in the last three years is most likely already underwater so any of these additional bailouts will not help since these folks are in negative equity positions. Severe negative equity. And you notice how the above is first liens? A high percentage have junior liens and they have no desire to let the property go since it will very likely wipe their loan out completely. That is why you are seeing such a delay in short sales getting done. The loss mitigation department with the first lien in most cases wants to work with you but the junior note holders have no rush to cancel out their debt. That is why cram downs are so important to improving the market. This way, judges can force and approve these deals without other parties delaying simply because they are delusional they’ll get some money back. They won’t. The industry is shooting itself in the foot here. Many of the bailout proposals on the table at a minimum require some equity which rules out the vast majority of California loans. And that is assuming most people are willing to stay in an asset that is depreciating with no potential of equity for a very long time. Most are deciding to practice the new modern dance of moonwalking away from their mortgages.
I am extremely disappointed with our leadership and this isn’t just me:
“WASHINGTON DC (CNN) — A new poll suggests that President Bush is the most unpopular president in modern American history.”
A fitting way to end the final year in office. Can’t get lower approval than that and just look at the state of our country today. Am I blaming this entire mess on one person? Of course not! The current Congress is just as bad on both sides. But when you are commander and chief (aka CEO of the U.S.) the buck stops with you. If this were a publicly traded company he’d been fired a long time ago. No one has a crystal ball but even a toddler can understand that giving people mortgages that they cannot pay is a recipe for disaster. The invention of perpetual housing appreciation was a myth. The “ownership society” was an Orwellian ploy to screw the vast majority of Americans. When they marketed ARMs with the blessing of Greenspan it was for prudent investing and to free up additional resources. Of course the absolute inverse happened. And why not? No one bothered to enforce any of the regulations on the books. This government was preoccupied with destroying the future of our country and putting us into an incredible amount of debt. Anyone that thinks are country is in good financial shape is out of their minds and probably still thinks these mortgage products were good ideas. Thankfully, 70 percent of the country disagrees with how things are being handled at the top. When you build your entire fortune and fortress on a volcano, don’t be angry when it explodes.
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Related Posts: ■The Housing Wave of the Future: Two Main Mortgage Tsunamis. ■Did you Feel That? Housing Just Hit the Third Rail. ■What really goes on with Black-matter SIVs. A Micro-case study. My Experience with Prosper and how it is Similar to the Current Mortgage Debacle. ■The Rent vs. Buying Dilemma: Mortgages the Southern California Way. 3 Factors to look at: Increase Rental Prices, Housing Price Declines, and Tighter Credit Markets. ■Second Quarter Housing All-Stars Recap: Subprime closes shop, Prime Loans Gone Wild, and the Future of Housing.

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