Filed under: Launches, Consumer experience, Annual meetings, Google (GOOG)

One of the messages out of the Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) shareholder meeting was that management plans to make more money on huge video-sharing site YouTube. Without going into detail, the search company said it would bring out sets of software tools which would make it easier for marketers to use the site more effectively.

According to Reuters, Eric Schmidt, the company’s CEO “said getting the video sharing site to make money is the Web search company’s top priority for the year.” It is a nice promise, but it is hard to see how it will work.

Unlike new video sites including Hulu, a premium content web destination used by the large media companies to showcase their video, most of the YouTube content is posted by the ordinary citizen. The clips are primarily short and of poor quality. For some time, one of the most popular videos on YouTube was “The Farting Preacher.” That may not be the kind of content big marketers find appropriate to use to draw new customers.

YouTube’s problem is not its size. It is the largest video site in the world, based on visitors. But, it is also a website based on a community of people who see its as a place to homestead with the own content. Advertisers may never be comfortable with that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Over $10 letter.

Share This

For the eternal optimists your boy David Lereah, your ace-in-the-hole, your go-to expert who predicted a “soft-landing” and wrote the book “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust” is saying that we’re in for a lot worse. So stop looking for a bottom. It must be tough when your hero, your clutch hitter finally gives up the fight. Who do you turn to? Lawrence Yun? He doesn’t have the panache, the swagger, the publishing credits!

Quick, somebody, find me someone with a pulse who thinks we’re in better shape now than we were 3, 6, 9 months ago. Please. The pumpers are defecting like crazy. David freaking Lereah is seeing the light?!?!

David Lereah for President. A man that can flip-flop this effectively deserves a sacred seat in Washington.

Pardon my rather churlish response to his whole mea culpa. I just find it rather fascinating. Any way. Dr. Housing Bubble did a great write-up on this very phenomenon. So here is a taste and be sure to check out the rest of his commentary.

“We’re not at the bottom,” he says. “[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we’re not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There’s still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.”

That’s quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005. There he argued that the solid economy, strong demographics (including immigration and aging boomers), and a lean supply of homes should lead prices to continue rising for years to come. “Today’s real estate market is the result of rational decision making based on supply and demand conditions,” he wrote. “With today’s economy, home owners are in no danger of experiencing a widespread fallout of home prices.”

“[I] just didn’t realize the scope, the extent, the magnitude of the loose underwriting-not looking at incomes and wages, just providing so many mortgage loans based on [expected] future price appreciation rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower,” Lereah says. “That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late.”

We’re taking nominees for the new poster boy. Feel free to suggest your write-ins in the comments.

Share This

Source [blownmortgage]

Share This

Filed under: Major movement, International markets, Consumer experience, Middle East, Commodities, Oil

I know that last thing you probably wanted to hear this morning was that oil prices moved even higher, but that is exactly what is taking place, as oil rose as high as $125.98 and is currently trading at $125.60.

Leading the charge today is the weak dollar as investors continue to seek refuge from the falling U.S. currency in commodities — most notably, oil. The dollar has fallen today against the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. The euro was sitting at $1.5404 last night, but has moved higher today, up to a current price of $1.5466.

The market is also concerned about the upcoming peak driving season for Americans. With the season getting under way, oil prices will definitely continue to rise, and if gasoline stockpiles continue to fall, you can be sure that gasoline prices are also going to keep moving higher over the next couple of months. Will we see national averages of $4 or greater? I don’t think so, but at the current rate prices are moving, nothing is out of the question right now.

Continue reading Oil gushes through the $125 mark!

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Via [bloggingstocks]

Share This

There are moments in history that change the world profoundly. The fall of the Berlin Wall. The industrial revolution and the impact it made on our society. And finally, David Lereah, the former National Association of Realtors chief economist telling us that that things will get worse before they get better? […]
Related Posts:
■Zillowed, Disappearing Inventory, and Free Housing: 3 Major Psychological Reasons Why Housing is Still Declining and Living Rent and Mortgage Free.
■Did you Feel That? Housing Just Hit the Third Rail.
■Mission Accomplished: 3 Housing Issues: Multiple Bottoms, Declining Dollar, and More Sub-prime and Alt-A Defaults.
■Even the Harlem Globe Trotters Couldn’t Spin Today’s Housing News!
■Think Housing Can’t Go Down Significantly in Southern California?

There are moments in history that change the world profoundly. The fall of the Berlin Wall. The industrial revolution and the impact it made on our society. And finally, David Lereah, the former National Association of Realtors chief economist telling us that that things will get worse before they get better? That is correct. One of the most adamant cheerleaders for the housing orgy is now sounding like a housing bear blogger. You know the author of this following book:

The book was published in February of 2006, just at the peak of the housing bubble mania. Just to give you an insight to some of the bubble rhetoric in case you forgot how it was to live in a society where everyone was drinking housing Kool-Aid:

“We are really on track for a soft landing. There are no balloons popping.” - David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, December 2005

“If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years,” said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?” “It’s as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress.”

He called it “very unsophisticated.” (Los Angeles Times Aug 28th, 2005)

You must understand that Daivd Lereah was one of the most adamant supporters of the housing boom. In fact, this idea that money was “stuffed in your mattress” is precisely the reason we have a negative savings rate and there is no buffer to support the continuing collapse in housing prices. But the tune is now changing as highlighted in this big story in Newsweek titled:

“It’s Going to Get Worse

Economist David Lereah was once the housing market’s biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn’t near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall.”

We now have this mea culpa world tour that also includes the maestro himself, Alan “use those adjustable rate mortgages” Greenspan. There is a concern for legacy and how history will treat them but thankfully to the flow of information, it is pretty easy to pinpoint the causes and the main cheerleaders for this “irrational exuberance” to quote Greenspan himself. Let us now see what Mr. Lereah is saying given the fact that we are now seeing a housing crash:

“We’re not at the bottom,” he says. “[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we’re not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There’s still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.”

Oh! Talk about a massive reversal in psychology here. But let us go on further and see that Mr. Lereah has learned a lesson in being careful about making hard line predictions:

“Lereah says that the industry may begin to see a slight uptick in sales later this summer, which could signal the start of the recovery. Home prices, however, will continue to fall. According to the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller index, the average U.S. home has lost around 15 percent of its value since the market’s peak. “We’re probably going to end up with a 20 percent [decline], but if I’m wrong it will be even more than that,” he says.”

The plethora of quotes during the bubble prove this person wrong multiple times and he’ll be proven wrong once again since he is estimating another 5 percent decline from the current numbers. What in the world is going to keep housing from going down 25 to 30 percent? Also, why 20 percent? Another wanton guess on the mea culpa express. This of course is a radical departure from the idea that the bubble (by definition irrational events) was grounded in logical reasons:

“That’s quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005. There he argued that the solid economy, strong demographics (including immigration and aging boomers), and a lean supply of homes should lead prices to continue rising for years to come. “Today’s real estate market is the result of rational decision making based on supply and demand conditions,” he wrote. “With today’s economy, home owners are in no danger of experiencing a widespread fallout of home prices.”

So who do they blame? You got it. Those pesky subprime loans that somehow have wiped out $2.84 trillion in housing equity:

“[I] just didn’t realize the scope, the extent, the magnitude of the loose underwriting-not looking at incomes and wages, just providing so many mortgage loans based on [expected] future price appreciation rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower,” Lereah says. “That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late.”

Bwahaha! No Mr. Lereah. YOU didn’t realize it. There were plenty of folks that just in line with the publication of the housing boom book were echoing the siren call of the housing bubble popping. I’ve noticed this new public relations move and want to stifle it once and for all. Alan Greenspan has used similar PR moves trying to give the appearance that no one saw this train coming and now, we need to adjust and please let us forget that our bubble cheerleading from a very loud podium was a main cause of this boom. Let us not forget that no large industry group has been punished. Do they own any responsibility? Listen, homeowners that took out these loans will end up in foreclosure if they thought they were going to flip a home for a quick profit and took out a destructive mortgage product. That has and will continue to go on. Yet what about restitution by the Wall Street firms and lenders that knew very well that they were going to make out like bandits while homeowners would in no way be able to payback the actual mortgage note. The profit made by these firms was based on negligent lending practices and in many cases, flat out illegal practices.

I’m sure some of you may think I’m coming down a bit hard here. But the one thing I am not hearing about is what is the punishment here? Are any groups responsible? The argument that “well buyers should of known better” is simply a distraction. Guess what? There is a clear consequence for taking out a mortgage you couldn’t pay. Its called foreclosure. The consequence for making horrible loans? Its called a bailout from the Federal Reserve. Think about this for a second. Let us say you maxed out your credit cards, took a ridiculous mortgage on a McMansion, signed on for a lease on a luxury car, and simply cannot make the payments. Can you go to your bank and drop off your lease, mortgage, and credit card liabilities in exchange for money? Of course not! Yet this is the access Wall Street firms have under the political guise of “well, they’re too big to fail.”

Back to Mr. Lereah, at least we can give him credit in that he actually followed his own advice and put some of his own money into the housing game. Many of these perma-bulls have a simple way to prove their commitment; go out and buy a home right now in Southern California. Put your money where your mouth is:

“Every time you have something like this you overreact the other way,” Lereah says. He sees Frank’s efforts to boost the FHA’s role as a solid countermeasure that may help the market. While he was an economist at NAR, Lereah was also a real estate investor himself, at one point owning 10 condominiums from Virginia to Florida, which he rented out. Today he still owns seven of them, and aside from one that’s languishing unrented, the other six are still making money, he says. So even if his forecasting record is mixed, his in-the-trenches investment record appears more solid.

Florida has the worst condominium market in the entire country. Now he is championing the FHA bailout plan which is another form of privatizing gains and socializing losses. If we are now getting David Lereah saying that things will get worse we know that things are nowhere remotely close to a bottom. The quote that comes to mind about letting single owners go down in flames while bailing out Wall Street is from J. Paul Getty:

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”

Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information

Share This

Related Posts:
■Zillowed, Disappearing Inventory, and Free Housing: 3 Major Psychological Reasons Why Housing is Still Declining and Living Rent and Mortgage Free.
■Did you Feel That? Housing Just Hit the Third Rail.
■Mission Accomplished: 3 Housing Issues: Multiple Bottoms, Declining Dollar, and More Sub-prime and Alt-A Defaults.
■Even the Harlem Globe Trotters Couldn’t Spin Today’s Housing News!
■Think Housing Can’t Go Down Significantly in Southern California?

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Share This

Filed under: International markets, Industry, Economic data

The U.S. trade deficit fell substantially in March 2008, to $58.2 billion, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday, as the slowing U.S. economy reduced consumer demand for imported automobiles, furniture and consumer goods, among other categories.

The March 2008 trade statistic was the lowest trade gap since November 2003, the Commerce Department said.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the March 2008 trade deficit to be $60.8 billion.

The February 2008 trade deficit was revised lower to $61.7 billion from $62.3 billion. The trade deficit was $59.0 billion in January 2008.

In March 2008, nominal imports decreased 2.9% to $206.7 billion, while nominal exports fell 1.7% to $148.5 billion.

Slowing U.S. economy weighs

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday the March 2008 trade report clearly displays the effects of a slowing U.S. economy.

“We see a clear pullback in domestic demand in March [2008], and the core import number was down 3%, so that’s indicative of fewer consumers making purchases, which is consistent with belt-tightening and U.S. payroll reductions,” Wang said. “It’s clear now our nation is demanding less from international suppliers, which will have a negative effect on their economies, as well.”

Continue reading March U.S. trade deficit falls as imports, exports drop on slowdown

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Via [bloggingstocks]

Share This

For the eternal optimists your boy David Lereah, your ace-in-the-hole, your go-to expert who predicted a “soft-landing” and wrote the book “Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust” is saying that we’re in for a lot worse. So stop looking for a bottom. It must be tough when your hero, your clutch hitter finally gives up the fight. Who do you turn to? Lawrence Yun? He doesn’t have the panache, the swagger, the publishing credits!

Quick, somebody, find me someone with a pulse who thinks we’re in better shape now than we were 3, 6, 9 months ago. Please. The pumpers are defecting like crazy. David freaking Lereah is seeing the light?!?!

David Lereah for President. A man that can flip-flop this effectively deserves a sacred seat in Washington.

Pardon my rather churlish response to his whole mea culpa. I just find it rather fascinating. Any way. Dr. Housing Bubble did a great write-up on this very phenomenon. So here is a taste and be sure to check out the rest of his commentary.

“We’re not at the bottom,” he says. “[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we’re not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low … There’s still supply out there in abundance … This thing is going to get worse before it gets better.”

That’s quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005. There he argued that the solid economy, strong demographics (including immigration and aging boomers), and a lean supply of homes should lead prices to continue rising for years to come. “Today’s real estate market is the result of rational decision making based on supply and demand conditions,” he wrote. “With today’s economy, home owners are in no danger of experiencing a widespread fallout of home prices.”

“[I] just didn’t realize the scope, the extent, the magnitude of the loose underwriting-not looking at incomes and wages, just providing so many mortgage loans based on [expected] future price appreciation rather than the creditworthiness of the borrower,” Lereah says. “That got so out of hand, and none of us realized the magnitude of it until it was too late.”

We’re taking nominees for the new poster boy. Feel free to suggest your write-ins in the comments.

Share This

Source [blownmortgage]

Share This

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Deals, Google (GOOG), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), Market matters, Walt Disney (DIS), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), Comcast Cl’A’ (CMCSA), Economic data, Time Warner Cable (TWC), Oil, Housing

U.S. stock futures were lower early Wednesday as investors, worried about inflation, await data on pending home sales and labor costs. Earnings news in focus this morning comes from tech bellwether Cisco Systems, which gave a cautious outlook, and from Walt Disney, which reported good results.

After that, weekly crude inventories are scheduled to be reported. Crude futures have held up near $122 a barrel despite the dollar advancing against the yen and the euro.

There are many companies in focus this morning too. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) reported sales and earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations after the close Monday, but gave a sales guidance that was somewhat conservative.

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) also reported quarterly results after the market close Tuesday that also beat expectations. Interestingly, it seems that of all companies, the entertainment giant isn’t getting hit by the economic slowdown as other companies do. Disney shares were up 2.3% in premarket trading.

And in deal news, Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) and Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) announced Wednesday the formation of a joint venture for the high-speed wireless network WiMax to create a $14.55 billion communications company in which Sprint will hold a 51% stake. The new company, to be named Clearwire, will receive a $3.2 billion investment from Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) and Brighthouse Networks. Sprint shares are up over 7.7% in premarket trading, CLWR nearly 14.5%.

Share This

Filed under: Earnings reports, Amer Intl Group (AIG), Options

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is recently trading at $40.34 in pre-open trading, below its close of $44.15.

AIG reported a $7.81 billion first-quarter loss and announced plans to raise $12.5 billion.

Bank of America says: “1Q: The downside of high leverage and risk taking.”

AIG May option implied volatility is at 63; June is at 48; above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Via [bloggingstocks]

Share This

Filed under: Bad news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis, Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC)

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) shares are falling today as an SEC official has warned that future investment banks that get into trouble may not get the same bailout that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) did. Director of Trading and Markets at the SEC Eric Sirri told the House Investment and Insurance Subcommittee that the liquidity help given to BSC may not necessarily be repeated if another bank has trouble. These words have dragged down LEH in trading yesterday afternoon and so far today. If you think this stock won’t be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LEH.

After hitting a one-year high of $82.05 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $20.25 in March. This morning, LEH opened at $44.19. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.67 and a high of $44.19. As of 12:40, LEH is trading at $42.67, down 0.97 (-2.2%). The chart for LEH looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn’t do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.2% return in six weeks as long as LEH is below $50 at June expiration. LEH would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

LEH hasn’t been above $50 since mid-February and has shown resistance around $47 recently. This trade could be risky if the company’s earnings (due out in mid-June) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HSY might find from its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $45.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LEH or BSC.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Via [bloggingstocks]

Share This

Filed under: Newspapers, Magazines, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Intel (INTC), Sprint Nextel Corp (S), Comcast Cl’A’ (CMCSA), Wachovia Corp (WB)

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that an alliance of cable, Internet and chip titans will announce plans to invest $3.2B in a company that will deliver Web access for laptops and cellphones using WiMax. The venture, valued at over $12B, includes Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) and Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ: CLWR) and will be backed by Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE: TWC), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG).
• According to people familiar with the matter, Robert Verrone, one of the most zealous commercial real-estate lenders during the industry’s boom, will leave Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) within the next week, the Wall Street Journal reported.

WEB SITES:

• Bloomberg reported that the Department of Justice is probing whether UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) helped clients evade American taxes. In an e-mailed statement, the firm said one senior bank employee was “briefly detained” by authorities.
• Bloomberg also reported that Vallejo, California’s city council voted to go into bankruptcy. Officials said that after talks with labor unions failed to win salary concessions from police and fire fighters, the city does not have enough money to pay its bills.
• According to a rumor, TechCrunch reported that the Yahoo Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) board of directors yesterday authorized Yahoo chairman Roy Bostock, rather than CEO Jerry Yang, to call Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) CEO Steve Ballmer about re-starting negotiations.

Share This