Archive for July 19th, 2008

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Refining Sector, International Game Tech and Gilead Sciences were today’s noteworthy downgrades:

  • Bernstein downgraded the Refining Sector to Market Weight from Overweight based on the weakening earnings outlook for the group. The firm downgraded Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) and Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Citigroup downgraded shares of International Game Tech (NYSE: IGT) to Hold from Buy following the company’s lower than expected guidance and removed the stock from their Top Picks Live List. The firm lowered their target to $25 from $45. Shares were also downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform following the company’s lower-than-expected results.
  • Jefferies cut Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) to Hold from Buy following the company’s Q2 results as they see limited upside catalysts and a matured core HIV drug franchise. The firm maintains a $56 target. BMO Capital downgraded GILD to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation, flattening HIV sales, Letairis growth below expectations, and increased R&D costs.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) was downgraded at RBC Capital to Outperform from Top Pick.
  • Goldman removed Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) from the Conviction Buy List.
  • Progressive (NYSE: PGR) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.

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JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said that prime mortgages are “terrible” during the company’s earnings report which saw the Wall Street bank beat earnings estimates.  The rapidly rising prime mortgage delinquencies may signal the second wave of the credit crisis; and one that we’ve been pointing to for a long time now.

In an article I wrote last year I said that “your FICO score can’t pay your mortgage” when times get tough, money gets tight and loans reset.  I predicted that we would see a severe uptick in prime delinquencies and suggested that credit scores were overweighted in loan underwriting.  Alas, I appear to be right.

Dimon also issued a refrain that I’ve been bandying about for a long time - “we’re very early” in the mortgage loss game.

See the below graph (from Housing Wire) that shows the exponential growth in mortgage delinquencies in JP Morgan’s prime mortgage portfolio.

From Housing Wire:

Part of that weak economic outlook can clearly be attributed to mortgages. In a surprisingly short conference call with analysts, Dimon suggested that losses in JP Morgan’s prime mortgage book could triple in the foreseeable future as the credit mess moves out of subprime and into Alt-A and jumbo loans.

JPM 30-day DQs, prime mortgages, Q2

30-day delinquency trending among JP Morgan’s prime mortgage porrfolio. (Source: investor presentation)

“Prime looks terrible,” he told analysts on the call. “And we’re sorry, and there’s nothing else we can say.”

The company currently holds $34.4 billion of jumbo mortgages, along with $2.5 billion of Alt-A mortgages. Net charge-offs among prime loans in the second quarter rose to $104 million, more than double the $50 million recorded just one quarter earlier. JP Morgan jumped in headlong into jumbos and Alt-A mortgages during 2007 — obviously an ill-timed bet, given where the market has headed.

“We were wrong, we obviously wish we hadn’t done it,” Dimon told analysts. “We’re very early in the loss curve.”

Source [blownmortgage]

U.S. Bancorp, Minnesota’s biggest bank, is facing a similar fate of the other super-regional banks such as Downey Savings, National City, Bank United and others as loan losses continue to mount for the lender.  Loan delinquencies have risen in the Northern part of the country and U.S. Bancorp is feeling the pinch.

As we looked at the other day, more banks are going to be in trouble in the near future.  Unfortunately it will be these super-regionals who lent a ton of money when money was cheap but do not have the balance sheet or the means to raise new capital to protect against these losses.

More from Bloomberg:

U.S. Bancorp, Minnesota’s biggest bank, said second-quarter earnings slumped 18 percent as more customers fell behind on loans. The shares fell as much as 12 percent in New York trading.

The bank more than tripled its provision for credit losses to $596 million from $191 million second-quarter 2007. Assets for which U.S. Bancorp no longer received interest rose 34 percent to $1.14 billion from last year as more homebuilders and homeowners fell behind on their payments.

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Citigroup Inc. (C), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Merrill Lynch (MER)

Merrill Lynch (NASDAQ:MER) is down over 5% on poor earnings.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is down 8% on disappointing earnings.

AMD (NYSE:AMD) is down 7% on poor earnings.

UAL (NASDAQ:UAUA) is up over 8% on an anlyst upgrade.

Micrososft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is down over 5% on poor earnings.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

It has been one week since Pasadena based IndyMac Bank was taken over by the FDIC. After the market closed on Friday, the FDIC had assumed control over the troubled institution which was the second largest bank failure in history with assets totaling $32 billion. Initially, since it had been a very long […]
Related Posts:
IndyMac: IndyMac History and Collapse. The Saga of the Second Largest Bank Failure in History, here in Sunny Southern California.
Bank Failure: IndyMac Bank. Lessons from the Great Depression Part XIV. Bank Failures.
Affordable Housing: Finding Affordable Housing just got Easier in California.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Government Sponsored Entities Finding Their way Back Home with a Bailout.
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Compton. $321,000 for 594 Square Feet! Can You Really Get Two Bedrooms Into That Space?

It has been one week since Pasadena based IndyMac Bank was taken over by the FDIC. After the market closed on Friday, the FDIC had assumed control over the troubled institution which was the second largest bank failure in history with assets totaling $32 billion. Initially, since it had been a very long time since a bank of this size had collapsed, many did not know what to expect. Uncertainty was fueled over the weekend when people were unable to access their accounts. On their website, a FDIC page was posted telling customers that the bank was now under full control of the FDIC.

As the institution opened on Monday, uncertainty turned into nervousness. Report after report discussed how people were withdrawing their money from the bank, even those who had insured deposits under the $100,000 FDIC limit. The mass influx of people overwhelmed the resources of the institution and many had to return the subsequent day.

At this point, people started worrying more about simply getting their money out. Bank lines and lists started to make their rounds in various locations:

3-indymac0714eg8lrg-laguna-woods.jpg

2-indymac0714eg13-mission-viejo.jpg

*Source: OC Register Eugene Garcia

In some locations customers waited hours only to be told that they were unable to get their funds out. The heat and uncertainty turned into anger and frustration. Miscommunications occurred where lists were not approved officially from the FDIC so it was uncertain if they would be honored the next day. This did not bode well for many customers some who had been waiting from 1:30AM.

It is clear that the majority of customers from various reports were taking out their money even though the PR machine was fully saying, “this is the strongest bank in the country currently” - if that is the case, why was it taken over on a Friday afternoon without telling customers before hand even giving a slight warning?  Yes, against policy rules. Also, I’m sure those with $100,000 plus would have something else to say about that security.

As the week progressed and customers made their way with FDIC cashiers checks out, it turned out that some reports were stating that there may be some delay with other institutions honoring the checks coming from the institution. Clearly this caused more uncertainty with customers who further withdrew more funds. Amazingly some of the other institutions putting extreme holds on some of these checks are only weeks away from a similar position and they too are insured with the FDIC. Is this how they would want their customers to be treated in the future? From what it appears and legitimately so, many of these other institutions are on the lookout for fraud given the circumstances.  Unintended consequences.
At one location, the police were called out to settle customers down. Now of course this isn’t exactly the way to manage good PR. You’re threatening arrest on customers who want their money because your bank collapsed? They want their money because it did collapse! I’m surprised that some people say, “well this is irrational panic and people just need to calm down.” Actually, what is irrational is the mortgages this institution got involved in which led to its predictable demise. Today we have a very special Real Home of Genius Award for IndyMac Bank with a home right in its home city of Pasadena. Today we salute you IndyMac Bank with our Real Home of Genius Award.

IndyMac Bank and the Temple of Doomed Mortgages

IndyMac Bank

Today’s home leads us to Pasadena California. This home has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths which is your typical bread and butter starter home. It sits on 1,283 square feet of patchy green grass. You would think that when you are selling a home, you would at least remove the kicked down sales sign from the lawn and the green garbage can before taking a picture but this is how collapsed banks do business. Hey, collapsing just doesn’t happen overnight! It happens over the weekend and once you see the history of this one example, you’ll begin to understand why banks like IndyMac are doomed in the upcoming months.

This place is listed on the IndyMac website at a sales price of $335,900 which for anyone in Southern California who knows about Pasadena, seems like a steal. Maybe it was a good deal a few years ago but not anymore. In today’s market, qualified buyers are actually demanding a decent product for the amount they’ll shell out. No longer can you get a toxic banana republic loan to fund your flipping or delusional real estate mogul dreams.

Yet now we are going to see how disorganized California real estate has recently become. There is this phenomenon where real estate owned properties are for some reason not showing up on public MLS real estate sites. Whether lenders are overwhelmed or simply do not care, this issue is not clear. What is clear with many of these toxic Pay Option ARM mortgages is that there is a fleet of owners right now in California that are one, two, three, or four months away from their payments skyrocketing 50 percent and above. With the median price of homes dropping by 30% across California, these homes are simply waiting to be foreclosed on. Yet the irony here is that these loans actually look profitable to many of the current note holders. Unlike subprime were people with very poor credit were given absurd mortgages and of course defaulted very quickly, these loans tend to go incognito for a much longer time. If you have a two or three year window were you are deferring interest and even some of your principal yet pay on time, all looks well on the balance sheet.

A large number of these borrowers are “good” credit folks who used up their home equity like an ATM and now are simply sitting waiting for that recast anniversary. These places are flat out doomed and with $500 billion recasting shortly, many of these lenders are simply waiting for their FDIC turn. This brief rally on Wall Street is a suckers rally. Jump in at your own peril.

If you think this REO idea is off, just look at this property. We can go to the Realtor.com website and search this Pasadena zipcode and take a look below:

realtor.jpg

*Source: Realtor.com

Oh where art thou? Shouldn’t $335,900 be in the middle here? Yes sir! But nowhere to be found. Big deal you may say right? Well if lenders aren’t reporting their inventory correctly it artificially makes the overall sale to inventory ratio look healthier than it really is. My gut tells me there is a lot of REO and defaulted property hidden from the public view right now simply because of NTS, NOD, and REO data being reported from other agencies.  Once recasts hit fully, the zombies will come out of the ground hungry for capital.

Yet if you want to know why these institutions failed, let us look at some of the pricing action:

zillow.jpg

*Source: Zillow.com

This place sold on February of 2007 for $575,000! How absurd is that? If a prime area like Pasadena can see a home drop 40% in slightly over a year, what about the loans they made in more troubled areas like the Inland Empire? Given that it was picked up in February of 2008 for roughly 80% of the peak price, I imagine that the lender simply took back the home. It was probably under an 80/20 which was so typical in California. Yet it has been sitting on the books for nearly 5 months and once it sells (if it sells for the current price) their will be a write-down. And once this brief euphoria is over, the overall stock market will punish these stocks again. They are all operating as if a bailout will be given to all. Nope. Unfortunately they only have the time and pseudo resources to go after the big boys of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Is it any wonder why IndyMac collapsed? These kind of loans should have never seen the light of day. Today we salute you IndyMac Bank with our Real Home of Genius Award.

Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information

Post from: Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

IndyMac Bank: Bank Failure, Long Lines, and a Real Home of Genius. Another Reason why IndyMac Bank Failed.

Related Posts:
IndyMac: IndyMac History and Collapse. The Saga of the Second Largest Bank Failure in History, here in Sunny Southern California.
Bank Failure: IndyMac Bank. Lessons from the Great Depression Part XIV. Bank Failures.
Affordable Housing: Finding Affordable Housing just got Easier in California.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Government Sponsored Entities Finding Their way Back Home with a Bailout.
Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Compton. $321,000 for 594 Square Feet! Can You Really Get Two Bedrooms Into That Space?

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Press releases, JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) soared today after the New York-based bank reported second quarter results that were not as lousy as expected.

They were terrible of course. Net income fell 53% to $2 billion, or 54 cents a share, ahead of the 44-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Net revenue fell 3% to $18.4 billion, beating the $16.6 billion average Bloomberg estimate.

The results, though, underscore how well the company has fared under the leadership of CEO Jamie Dimon.

Here are some highlights:

  • Investment banking fees were $1.7 billion, their second highest quarter ever.
  • Net income in commercial banking rose 25% to $355 million.
  • Net income was a record $425 million in Treasury and Security Services, up 21% from a year earlier.
  • Equity underwriting fees rose 6% to $542 million.
  • Fix income markets revenue dropped only 4% driven largely by net markdowns of $696 million on leveraged lending funded and unfunded commitments, as well as mortgage-related net markdowns of $405 million.

The straight-talking Dimon did not mince words about the challenges that lie ahead for JPMorgan, saying in the release, “Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak - and to likely get weaker - and for the capital markets to remain under stress…. In spite of the environment, we are confident that we are building an increasingly strong and profitable company.”

But unlike many on Wall Street, Dimon can walk the walk and talk the talk.

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Filed under: Earnings reports, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), International Business Machines (IBM), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Merrill Lynch (MER), Wells Fargo (WFC)

Reuters reports that today is a big one for bank and technology earnings. It looks like Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) will lose big and will try to soften the blow with an announcement about selling its 20% of Bloomberg LP for $4.5 billion to its founder, New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and a handful of big technology companies are expected to report profits. But will they be enough?

Meanwhile, how can we make sense of yesterday’s 276 point rally on Wall Street? Nobody knows what happened, but theories abound: the price of oil fell — possibly due to anticipation that the Fed would raise interest rates to deal with inflation that is roaring out of control. Higher interest rates would strengthen the dollar, which would drive down the price of oil since it’s traded in dollars. But I think yesterday’s market was a short-covering frenzy. With the SEC foolishly squeezing the shorts, they needed to cover their bets that financials would fall further. Of course good news from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) didn’t hurt.

Today’s earnings — with estimates courtesy of a Reuters analyst survey — are likely to move the market. Here’s a roundup:

  • Merrill Lynch is expected to lose $1.94
  • JPMorgan was expected to make $0.44, down 63% from 2007. At a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.4 and a P/E of 12 on earnings forecast to grow 31% to $3.34 in 2009, it looks cheap. CNNMoney reports it made 54 cents — well ahead of expectations and its shares are up 5% in premarket.
  • Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) will earn 47 cents a share, a 21% increase from last year. At a PEG ratio of 1.1 and a P/E of 15 on earnings forecast to grow 14.3% to $2.16 in 2009, it looks reasonably priced.
  • Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is likely to earn $4.72, up 61% from last year. At a PEG ratio of 1.7 and a P/E of 36 on earnings forecast to grow 25% to $21.57 in 2009, it looks expensive.
  • International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) is anticipated to earn $1.82, 21% higher than 2007. At a PEG ratio of 1.3 and a P/E of 16 on earnings forecast to grow 12% to $9.57 in 2009, it looks priced about right.

As always, I predict the market will boost the shares of companies that beat these expectations and raise their revenue and profit growth forecasts. For those that fail to beat and raise, investors could slash their shares. JPMorgan beat expectations this morning and the upside surprise is rewarding those who bet on it prior to the announcement.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter . He owns Wells Fargo shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

Filed under: Bank of America (BAC), Options

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) closed at $26.50 Thursday.

BAC is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 21. Keefe Bruyette and Woods says: “BAC brings risky CountryWide assets on Balance sheet, lowering estimates.”

BAC August call option implied volatility went out at 64, puts at 97, above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 46; 26-week average is 37.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UAL Corp, WPP Group, Aventine Renewable and VeraSun Energy were today’s noteworthy upgrades:

  • JP Morgan upgraded UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) to Overweight from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for the company to make a capital announcement on next week’s conference call.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of WPP Group (NASDAQ: WPPGY) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company’s diversification will lead to low earnings volatility.
  • UBS upgraded Aventine Renewable (NYSE: AVR) and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE) to Buy from Neutral based on expectations for margin improvements following recent corn price declines.

OTHER UPGRADES:

  • Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and to Neutral from Underperform at Merrill.
  • Wachovia raised Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • Entergy (NYSE: ETR) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.

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