Archive for July 22nd, 2008

Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Forecasts, Bad news, Apple Inc (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), China

JP Morgan downgraded big China-based PC maker Lenovo. According to Reuters, the brokerage cut Lenovo “to neutral from overweight due to a near-term slowdown in revenue growth from weak China demand and a slower ramp-up of the U.S. consumer business.”

That is not exactly good news for U.S. PC companies Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) that already appear to be losing market share to the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Mac. China is a critical market to both companies, and any sign of further stress in the U.S. market does not leave them many regions to make up for faltering demand.

Wall Street is already concerned that a recession in the U.S. and slowing economies abroad will hammer the PC market. Like most American companies, HP and Dell thought they could always rely on the rapidly expanding markets in Asia.

It turns out that the best laid plans are not working out.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Citigroup chairman Win Bishcoff said that housing prices in the US and Britain could fall for another two years before leveling off.  It sounds nice, but it’s wrong.  House prices are going to continue falling for long than two years - especially in highly-speculative areas like California, Florida and Nevada.  The reason?  Option ARM and Alt-A loan resets that start to kick-in in earnest around 2010.  See below graph.

So while various pundits and “people in the know” will continue to throw out numbers that sound far enough off to not sound foolish, they will continue to be wrong until they address the second wave of resets that must wash through the system.

From Reuters:

Citigroup chairman Win Bischoff has warned that house prices in Britain and the United States are likely to keep falling for another two years.

The chairman of one of the world’s most powerful banks told the BBC in an interview that he expects it will take two years for the markets to stabilise.

He also said he expected the credit crunch could continue through until 2009.

And the graph that makes me highly skeptical of any talk of a recovery prior to the second wave.

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Earnings reports, McDonald’s (MCD)

Europe is not exactly a growth market for most US companies. The economy there is slowing much as it is in America. But, McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) may be an exception. According to Bloomberg, “McDonald’s Corp., the world’s largest restaurant company, may report a second-quarter profit after European sales rose twice as fast as in the U.S.”

The news is unusually good because rising commodities prices are likely to squeeze the fast food company’s margins. The costs of bread and meat have been up sharply over the last year.

Europe seems an unlikely savior for McDonald’s numbers. It is often viewed as a region where good food and traditional cuisine are part of the culture. Who wants a hamburger from a fast food place when the local restaurant has crepe suzette?

But fast food, filled with fat and salt, is irresistible. McDonald’s has proved that in every country where it does business.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Filed under: Earnings reports, Good news, Apple Inc (AAPL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Technology, Earnings transcripts

So the sky isn’t falling.

Corporate earnings aren’t that bad and are surprising analysts. Oil prices are falling just as quickly as they rose. If you are a contrarian investor, you must have a big grin on your face.

Common wisdom had it that markets were going to keep dropping, that the price of crude would hit $200 a barrel, and that bank after bank would go bankrupt. But what’s happened? The opposite. Bank earnings aren’t as bad a feared, crude has fallen to under $130 and suddenly investors are a bit more optimistic.

Even when we get bad news, like earnings from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and others, the market is able to hold up. Industries that just a week ago were being left for dead suddenly came roaring back to life. For investors who like to dabble in out of favor stocks, this market is a dream come true. Battered sectors such as financials, airlines, and even autos have surged over the last week. Who would have dreamed that airline stocks would actually stage a rally? What’s interesting is that even with their recent move these sectors are all still trading significantly off their highs, meaning that potentially we have much more room to run.

Continue reading This is setting up to be a contrarian’s dream market

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Via [bloggingstocks]

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said that prime mortgages are “terrible” during the company’s earnings report which saw the Wall Street bank beat earnings estimates.  The rapidly rising prime mortgage delinquencies may signal the second wave of the credit crisis; and one that we’ve been pointing to for a long time now.

In an article I wrote last year I said that “your FICO score can’t pay your mortgage” when times get tough, money gets tight and loans reset.  I predicted that we would see a severe uptick in prime delinquencies and suggested that credit scores were overweighted in loan underwriting.  Alas, I appear to be right.

Dimon also issued a refrain that I’ve been bandying about for a long time - “we’re very early” in the mortgage loss game.

See the below graph (from Housing Wire) that shows the exponential growth in mortgage delinquencies in JP Morgan’s prime mortgage portfolio.

From Housing Wire:

Part of that weak economic outlook can clearly be attributed to mortgages. In a surprisingly short conference call with analysts, Dimon suggested that losses in JP Morgan’s prime mortgage book could triple in the foreseeable future as the credit mess moves out of subprime and into Alt-A and jumbo loans.

JPM 30-day DQs, prime mortgages, Q2

30-day delinquency trending among JP Morgan’s prime mortgage porrfolio. (Source: investor presentation)

“Prime looks terrible,” he told analysts on the call. “And we’re sorry, and there’s nothing else we can say.”

The company currently holds $34.4 billion of jumbo mortgages, along with $2.5 billion of Alt-A mortgages. Net charge-offs among prime loans in the second quarter rose to $104 million, more than double the $50 million recorded just one quarter earlier. JP Morgan jumped in headlong into jumbos and Alt-A mortgages during 2007 — obviously an ill-timed bet, given where the market has headed.

“We were wrong, we obviously wish we hadn’t done it,” Dimon told analysts. “We’re very early in the loss curve.”

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Marketing and advertising, Nokia Corp. (NOK), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Business of sports

This post is part of a series on celebrity spokespeople who ended up doing serious harm to the brands they were hired to promote, or vice versa. See how we rank the 20 top spokesperson fiascos.

Before Michael Vick, quarterbacks were (mostly) tall, slow white men who passed the football, handed it off or got creamed by pass rushers. Vick changed the game by combining the strength, speed and agility of a running back with the arm and savvy of a quarterback. With it, he turned the traditional also-ran Atlanta Falcons into a contender. How could any company in the sporting goods field not sign such a sure-fire hall-of-famer as a spokesperson?

And sign him they did. Nike (NYSE:NKE) created a “Michael Vick Experience” ad campaign. He appeared on the cover of the 2004 version of Electronic Arts‘ (NASDAQ:ERTS) Madden football. The sponsor money rolled in, and when the Falcons signed Vick to a 10-year, $130 million contract, he had reached the pinnacle of sports success.

Then came the expose. News reports tying Vick to a dog fighting ring, then naming him as the pivotal figure in a horrendous gang who raised killer dogs in a kennel on Vick’s property and buried the losers nearby. By the time Vick was taken into custody, his brand was so fouled that companies couldn’t back away from him fast enough. The only sales of equipment with his name on it was to dog owners who used them as chew toys.

In a fiasco, everyone involved suffers. I just wish the everybody here hadn’t included innocent dogs.

Read the entire series

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It has been one week since Pasadena based IndyMac Bank was taken over by the FDIC. After the market closed on Friday, the FDIC had assumed control over the troubled institution which was the second largest bank failure in history with assets totaling $32 billion. Initially, since it had been a very long […]
Related Posts:
IndyMac: IndyMac History and Collapse. The Saga of the Second Largest Bank Failure in History, here in Sunny Southern California.
Bank Failure: IndyMac Bank. Lessons from the Great Depression Part XIV. Bank Failures.
Affordable Housing: Finding Affordable Housing just got Easier in California.
The Lords of Money Speak: Even the Prime Will Fall. Lessons From the Great Depression Part XV. The King JPMorgan Speaks.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Government Sponsored Entities Finding Their way Back Home with a Bailout.

It has been one week since Pasadena based IndyMac Bank was taken over by the FDIC. After the market closed on Friday, the FDIC had assumed control over the troubled institution which was the second largest bank failure in history with assets totaling $32 billion. Initially, since it had been a very long time since a bank of this size had collapsed, many did not know what to expect. Uncertainty was fueled over the weekend when people were unable to access their accounts. On their website, a FDIC page was posted telling customers that the bank was now under full control of the FDIC.

As the institution opened on Monday, uncertainty turned into nervousness. Report after report discussed how people were withdrawing their money from the bank, even those who had insured deposits under the $100,000 FDIC limit. The mass influx of people overwhelmed the resources of the institution and many had to return the subsequent day.

At this point, people started worrying more about simply getting their money out. Bank lines and lists started to make their rounds in various locations:

3-indymac0714eg8lrg-laguna-woods.jpg

2-indymac0714eg13-mission-viejo.jpg

*Source: OC Register Eugene Garcia

In some locations customers waited hours only to be told that they were unable to get their funds out. The heat and uncertainty turned into anger and frustration. Miscommunications occurred where lists were not approved officially from the FDIC so it was uncertain if they would be honored the next day. This did not bode well for many customers some who had been waiting from 1:30AM.

It is clear that the majority of customers from various reports were taking out their money even though the PR machine was fully saying, “this is the strongest bank in the country currently” - if that is the case, why was it taken over on a Friday afternoon without telling customers before hand even giving a slight warning?  Yes, against policy rules. Also, I’m sure those with $100,000 plus would have something else to say about that security.

As the week progressed and customers made their way with FDIC cashiers checks out, it turned out that some reports were stating that there may be some delay with other institutions honoring the checks coming from the institution. Clearly this caused more uncertainty with customers who further withdrew more funds. Amazingly some of the other institutions putting extreme holds on some of these checks are only weeks away from a similar position and they too are insured with the FDIC. Is this how they would want their customers to be treated in the future? From what it appears and legitimately so, many of these other institutions are on the lookout for fraud given the circumstances.  Unintended consequences.
At one location, the police were called out to settle customers down. Now of course this isn’t exactly the way to manage good PR. You’re threatening arrest on customers who want their money because your bank collapsed? They want their money because it did collapse! I’m surprised that some people say, “well this is irrational panic and people just need to calm down.” Actually, what is irrational is the mortgages this institution got involved in which led to its predictable demise. Today we have a very special Real Home of Genius Award for IndyMac Bank with a home right in its home city of Pasadena. Today we salute you IndyMac Bank with our Real Home of Genius Award.

IndyMac Bank and the Temple of Doomed Mortgages

IndyMac Bank

Today’s home leads us to Pasadena California. This home has 3 bedrooms and 2 baths which is your typical bread and butter starter home. It sits on 1,283 square feet of patchy green grass. You would think that when you are selling a home, you would at least remove the kicked down sales sign from the lawn and the green garbage can before taking a picture but this is how collapsed banks do business. Hey, collapsing just doesn’t happen overnight! It happens over the weekend and once you see the history of this one example, you’ll begin to understand why banks like IndyMac are doomed in the upcoming months.

This place is listed on the IndyMac website at a sales price of $335,900 which for anyone in Southern California who knows about Pasadena, seems like a steal. Maybe it was a good deal a few years ago but not anymore. In today’s market, qualified buyers are actually demanding a decent product for the amount they’ll shell out. No longer can you get a toxic banana republic loan to fund your flipping or delusional real estate mogul dreams.

Yet now we are going to see how disorganized California real estate has recently become. There is this phenomenon where real estate owned properties are for some reason not showing up on public MLS real estate sites. Whether lenders are overwhelmed or simply do not care, this issue is not clear. What is clear with many of these toxic Pay Option ARM mortgages is that there is a fleet of owners right now in California that are one, two, three, or four months away from their payments skyrocketing 50 percent and above. With the median price of homes dropping by 30% across California, these homes are simply waiting to be foreclosed on. Yet the irony here is that these loans actually look profitable to many of the current note holders. Unlike subprime were people with very poor credit were given absurd mortgages and of course defaulted very quickly, these loans tend to go incognito for a much longer time. If you have a two or three year window were you are deferring interest and even some of your principal yet pay on time, all looks well on the balance sheet.

A large number of these borrowers are “good” credit folks who used up their home equity like an ATM and now are simply sitting waiting for that recast anniversary. These places are flat out doomed and with $500 billion recasting shortly, many of these lenders are simply waiting for their FDIC turn. This brief rally on Wall Street is a suckers rally. Jump in at your own peril.

If you think this REO idea is off, just look at this property. We can go to the Realtor.com website and search this Pasadena zipcode and take a look below:

realtor.jpg

*Source: Realtor.com

Oh where art thou? Shouldn’t $335,900 be in the middle here? Yes sir! But nowhere to be found. Big deal you may say right? Well if lenders aren’t reporting their inventory correctly it artificially makes the overall sale to inventory ratio look healthier than it really is. My gut tells me there is a lot of REO and defaulted property hidden from the public view right now simply because of NTS, NOD, and REO data being reported from other agencies.  Once recasts hit fully, the zombies will come out of the ground hungry for capital.

Yet if you want to know why these institutions failed, let us look at some of the pricing action:

zillow.jpg

*Source: Zillow.com

This place sold on February of 2007 for $575,000! How absurd is that? If a prime area like Pasadena can see a home drop 40% in slightly over a year, what about the loans they made in more troubled areas like the Inland Empire? Given that it was picked up in February of 2008 for roughly 80% of the peak price, I imagine that the lender simply took back the home. It was probably under an 80/20 which was so typical in California. Yet it has been sitting on the books for nearly 5 months and once it sells (if it sells for the current price) their will be a write-down. And once this brief euphoria is over, the overall stock market will punish these stocks again. They are all operating as if a bailout will be given to all. Nope. Unfortunately they only have the time and pseudo resources to go after the big boys of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Is it any wonder why IndyMac collapsed? These kind of loans should have never seen the light of day. Today we salute you IndyMac Bank with our Real Home of Genius Award.

Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s Blog to get updated housing commentary, analysis, and information

Post from: Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

IndyMac Bank: Bank Failure, Long Lines, and a Real Home of Genius. Another Reason why IndyMac Bank Failed.

Related Posts:
IndyMac: IndyMac History and Collapse. The Saga of the Second Largest Bank Failure in History, here in Sunny Southern California.
Bank Failure: IndyMac Bank. Lessons from the Great Depression Part XIV. Bank Failures.
Affordable Housing: Finding Affordable Housing just got Easier in California.
The Lords of Money Speak: Even the Prime Will Fall. Lessons From the Great Depression Part XV. The King JPMorgan Speaks.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Government Sponsored Entities Finding Their way Back Home with a Bailout.

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Citigroup Inc. (C), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Merrill Lynch (MER)

Merrill Lynch (NASDAQ:MER) is down over 5% on poor earnings.

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) is down 8% on disappointing earnings.

AMD (NYSE:AMD) is down 7% on poor earnings.

UAL (NASDAQ:UAUA) is up over 8% on an anlyst upgrade.

Micrososft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is down over 5% on poor earnings.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Filed under: Newspapers, Magazines, Google (GOOG), Viacom (VIA), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH)

MAJOR PAPERS:

  • The market for private mortgage insurance has narrowed and is tougher to obtain, further pressuring home buyers and affecting the market, the Wall Street Journal reported. “Clearly, the pendulum had swung a little too far in terms of flexibility in underwriting,” said Len Sweeney, the chief risk officer at AIG United Guaranty, a part of American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG).
  • In a agreement with Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA), Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) said it will remove visitor data from YouTube before it fulfills a judge’s order to send data to Viacom, as a part of a larger copyright lawsuit, the Wall Street Journal reported.

OTHER PAPERS:

  • As part of its effort to emerge from bankruptcy protection, the Detroit News reported that Delphi Corp (OTC: DPHIQ) announced plans to sell its brake business. Delphi has retained W.Y. Campbell and Co to help sell the unit, which has around 1,000 employees worldwide.
  • The New York Post learned that Dick Fuld, the CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), is seriously considering ways to take the company private. The Post said that talks centering on the privatization of Lehman have “gotten very serious consideration,” according to sources, although details on how a maneuver may work remain unclear.

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