Filed under: International markets, Forecasts, Financial Crisis

Here’s an icebreaker for your next cocktail party or dinner party. (This one is sure to impress your friends and colleagues even more than explaining the market and economic significance of credit default swaps.)

Q: What’s the strongest currency in the world?

Well, let’s evaluate the world’s major currencies and hone in on the answer.

• The dollar – For the last few decades, the dollar was the world’s strongest currency. After all, it is the world’s reserve currency. However, recent history has not been too kind to the dollar — the dollar’s value has declined throughout the decade — and the near-term outlook does not look good, either. Massive government spending to both end the financial crisis and put the U.S. economy on a sustainable growth track means additional inflation, if not dollar devaluation, is likely. Nix the dollar as the world’s strongest currency.

• The British pound — At one point in history, the sun never set on the British Empire, and the pound was the world’s reserve currency. Although the pound has been strong this decade, likely additional interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to jump start the economy of Her Majesty’s Kingdom, as John Lennon would refer to his native land, means the pound is likely to lose value in the year ahead. Nix the pound as the world’s strongest currency.

• The euro — The euro has challenged the dollar for reserve currency status this decade, and has gained versus the buck for most of that time, but you guessed it: the heavy hand of the financial crisis is beginning to take a toll. For example, Germany alone has approved a 650 billion euro (or $500 billion) bank rescue plan. That’s equivalent to the U.S. putting in place a $2.5 trillion plan. Wow. Let’s hope Germany doesn’t have to use most of it. Of course, the euro zone is more than Germany, but severe stagnation in Germany suggests several more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Nix the euro as the world’s strongest currency.

Continue reading What’s the strongest currency in the world?

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Filed under: Amer Intl Group (AIG)

The global stock markets have lost $29 trillion dollars in the last year, cutting the average stock in half. But that’s no reason for despair. Alaska governor Sarah Palin is running for vice president and she does not need to use her own money to pay for her liberal, elitist, anti-American, terrorist, gotcha-journalism wardrobe makeover or to fly her children around with her on junkets.

For that, she is confidently charging the Republican National Committee and the taxpayers of Alaska. How so? The RNC paid $49,425 for shopping sprees at Saks Fifth Avenue in St. Louis and New York; $75,062 for her to shop at Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis; and $4,716 on Palin’s hair and makeup through September.

That’s not all though. Alaska paid $21,012 for personal junkets like hotel and commercial flights so her three daughters could join Palin to watch the first dude in a snowmobile race, and a trip to New York, where the Palin attended a five-hour conference and stayed with daughter Bristol for four nights in a luxury hotel.

Continue reading Can Palin’s $150,000 shopping spree boost the U.S. economy?

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The spin is out in full force folks. The Southern California housing numbers are now out and once again they show a dismal and pathetic market. Yet even in the face of falling prices ala the Wal-Mart commercials, you can rest assured that some are going to spin the data for all it […]
Related Posts:
■Foreclosures? Housing Bubble? In Southern California? Impossible!
■Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Compton. Once, Twice, Three times a Short Sale.
■Emerging Economic Trends: Housing Swaps, Frugality, and Selling Homes in Lower Priced Areas.
■C.A.R. says 2007 will see a -2% Drop in California. Does This Feel like a 2% Yearly Drop?
■Doing The Housing Bubble Math Dance for California.

The spin is out in full force folks. The Southern California housing numbers are now out and once again they show a dismal and pathetic market. Yet even in the face of falling prices ala the Wal-Mart commercials, you can rest assured that some are going to spin the data for all it is worth. You also need to remember that the recent data on Southern California is for the month of July, a historically strong month simply because of seasonal factors. In addition, the month of August should look similar to this month but expect the report for September due out in October to show the actual pay option ARM smack down.

But even with seasonality the spinsters are going to use the current minor bump in home sales as a major positive:

“(DQNews) La Jolla, CA—The number of Southern California homes sold last month edged up to its highest level in more than a year as bargain hunters swept up foreclosure properties in affordable neighborhoods, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 20,329 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 16.7 percent from 17,424 the previous month and up 13.8 percent from 17,867 for July a year ago, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.

Last month’s sales count was the highest since 21,856 homes were sold in March 2007, though it still fell 23 percent short of the average July sales total since 1988, when MDA DataQuick’s statistics begin. From last September through June, sales for each month were at an all-time low for that particular calendar month, with the exception of April which was the next lowest. Last month’s sales total was the first since September 2005 to rise above the year-ago level.”

Bargain hunters? Foreclosures in affordable neighborhoods? Isn’t that an oxymoron? If the neighborhood was affordable in the first place you wouldn’t be seeing large number of foreclosures but that is an entirely different subject. Even though this report is trying to spin the 21,856 sales as a significant jump it is nowhere close to the sales that occurred during the bubble frenzy. Take a look at this data:

July 2004: 32,988

July 2005: 31,069

July 2006: 25,628

July 2007: 17,867

July 2008: 20,329

It helps to put things in perspective doesn’t it? Of course they aren’t going to say that sales for Southern California are off by 38% from their peak July month only a few years ago. And when they say that the jump was bolstered by “affordable neighborhoods” what they mean is that the majority of the sales were fueled by the Inland Empire were homes are being sold for whatever the market will take. Let us look at the details of the report:

I first direct your attention to the stunning jump in sales for Riverside and San Bernardino Counties. These two counties make up the Inland Empire. But what the report doesn’t highlight is the actual median price of both these counties. They are now down 34 and 35 percent on a year over year basis and carry a median price of $260,000 and $230,000. Do you realize that Riverside County for example hit a high median price of $432,000 in December of 2006? So if we take that peak price to the current median price we get:

$430,000 - $260,000 = $170,000 (A 39% Discount)

Los Angeles County hit a peak of $550,000 and is now at $400,000. Nice $150,000 discount. Orange County? Orange County had a median price of $645,000 in June of 2007. That is a drop of $184,000 in one year. Would you wait a year for $184,000? I think most would.

Across the board prices are getting hammered. The reason sales jumped last month was in large part to the big jump in the Inland Empire. And of course homes are now selling for 50 to 60 percent off peak sales prices. To think this won’t happen in Los Angeles County and Orange County is simply unrealistic. It will happen. Just wait until the pay option ARM loans in these areas hit their anniversary dates.

You’ll love some of the reasons given for the fall off in prices:

“What we’re looking at is a fire sale of properties in newer affordable neighborhoods that were bought or refinanced near the price peak with lousy mortgages. What we’re still not seeing is this level of distress spreading to more expensive or established neighborhoods,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $348,000 last month, down 2.0 percent from $355,000 in June and down 31.1 percent from $505,000 for July 2007. That peak of $505,000 was reached in March, April, May and July of last year.

The median has fallen because of depreciation, especially in inland markets, and because of the steep drop off in home financing in the so-called jumbo category, which until recently was defined as loans above $417,000.

Before the credit crunch hit in August 2007, nearly 40 percent of Southland sales were financed with jumbo loans. Jumbos last month accounted for 15.8 percent of Southland sales.”

First, what qualifies as a more established neighborhood? Are we talking about Malibu or Newport Coast? Sure, those areas are positive but only a fraction of the entire 20,000,000+ people that live in Southern California live there. That reminds me of something said during the Crash of 1929. Mr. Rockefeller during the crash of the Great Depression announced that he was buying stocks while everyone was selling. To paraphrase a market observer, “of course he is buying. He’s the only one left with money.” Well of course these areas are doing fine! They always do well irrespective of the economy. Yet I draw your attention to the chart above again. Every single county is down from 26.9% to 35.2%. That is a major correction in one year and we are yet to see the truly “lousy” mortgages hit the actual market.

Another interesting part of the report is the implication that jumbo loans are somehow hurting the market. Did you look at the overall Southern California median price? It’s at $348,000! You don’t need a stinking jumbo loan anymore. What you need is good credit and a solid income to buy a home and not some banana republic mortgage from the bubble days. Given that our unemployment rate is at 7.3% who really wants to buy a home when their income is at risk? You think those 200,000 state workers are hungry to buy a home given that Arnold is trying to cut them down to the minimum wage? What about all the jobs in housing that are now no longer bringing in good paychecks? If you connect the dots prices are going down because the entire state was turned into a housing casino and mortgages were used as chips.

I recall clearly a few months ago hearing on the radio here in Southern California, these permabull brokers talking about how great the Hope Now program would be for buyers. When this failed, it was going to be the fantastic Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout. Well of course all these idiotic programs failed because they missed one simple yet obvious fact. The economy is in distress! This is like offering lobster to a person with no taste buds. Or offering someone that lives in Palm Springs an Eskimo jacket. They don’t need gimmicks. What we need is for the state to get its budget in order and not offer tax breaks for subprime lenders. We need an infrastructure that is sustainable and not one built around finance, insurance, and real estate. Did people really think that we were going to trade homes to one another ad infinitum? Sure makes that $729,500 loan limit seem like an absolute boneheaded move.

I was going through some of the historical “help” that was going to save the market and have compiled a list here for your mental historical note keeping:

Of course these programs are all failing because they fail to address the structural problems of the system. That is, this was a bubble of epic proportions and the only way to sustain it is to bring back the toxic credit that fueled the market. I was digging through some images I have saved and found this screenshot of Hank Paulson on CNN from December of 2007:

Subprime help is indeed on the way. On the way out the door that is.

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Post from: Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

Southern California Housing Report: New Housing Motto: Foreclosure Data is so Bad, it has to be Good! Median Price Down 31% to $348,000.

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Related Posts:
■Foreclosures? Housing Bubble? In Southern California? Impossible!
■Real Homes of Genius: Today we Salute you Compton. Once, Twice, Three times a Short Sale.
■Emerging Economic Trends: Housing Swaps, Frugality, and Selling Homes in Lower Priced Areas.
■C.A.R. says 2007 will see a -2% Drop in California. Does This Feel like a 2% Yearly Drop?
■Doing The Housing Bubble Math Dance for California.

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Remember the saying “if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail“?

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Source [blownmortgage]

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In the wake of Wall Street’s recent tumble, several cities have started vying for New York’s position as the center of worldwide finance. In Shanghai, for example, some investors have noted that, in spite of the city’s relative inexperience in the world of high finance, it is swimming in cash. Tokyo, meanwhile, is working on rearranging its regulatory structure in an attempt to make its markets more attractive to international investors.

Perhaps the most interesting competitor for the throne of worldwide financial center is Dubai. Currently in the middle of a massive construction boom, the city has taken a variety of steps to make itself attractive to foreign workers, including relaxing Islamic law and creating so-called “free zones,” where taxes are greatly reduced. On the other hand, Dubai has a mean humidity of over 60% and several months where the average temperatures top 100° F. Of course, if everything was based on climate, the worldwide financial center would probably be in the South of France!

While it’s hard to imagine New York ceding its position at the heart of worldwide finance, the same could once have been said of Venice or London. The one constant in world history is that nothing lasts forever, and countries that fail to remain competitive do so at their peril. While we wait to see the future of New York, I’m going to try to imagine Jim Cramer in a keffiyah!

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A guest post from Frank Shump. Frank is a veteran from the financial services industry, and currently authors a blog called Thefinancecastle.com, which documents his thoughts on money matters and his adventures in self employment.

When both Citigroup and Merrill Lynch both came out with staggering losses recently, I don’t think many people were all that surprised. With the credit crisis in full swing across just about every part of the economy, the financial sector has been the hardest hit. Even after the fall of giants like Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, the rest of the guys left standing are still bleeding.

The difference now, of course, is that investors and analysts alike have come to expect these types of losses for the near future. But while Citigroup managed a smaller quarterly loss than was expected, Merrill missed the mark and delivered a wider loss than most analysts anticipated. The question that remains in the mind of many investors, is why?

Citigroup has had an undoubtedly dangerous year. Faced with increasing losses from collateralized debt obligations and mortgage backed securities, they brought in former hedge fund manager Vikram Pandit to help turn the company around. His job was to cut down Citigroup’s bloated operations, trim the fat, get rid of poisoned assets that were threatening to choke off the firm’s capacity to operate once and for all. Many investors and analysts weren’t convinced that Citigroup would survive at all, and the numbers showed it. In the past four quarters alone, the company has lost more than $20 billion. This most recent quarterly loss of $2.8 billion was also fueled by credit and mortgage related write downs, and was also caused by a deteriorating domestic economy.

Consumers are increasingly unable to pay their mortgage obligations, with credit card l loans in default rising 45% in the third quarter from where they were just a year ago. This forced Citi’s consumer banking and credit card businesses to swing to a steep loss this quarter as it was forced to bulk up it’s credit loss reserves. Losses related to this area are expected to increase well into 2009, according to Gary Crittenden, Citi’s chief financial officer. Definitely not good news for investors.

(more…)

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Filed under: International markets, Deals, Competitive strategy, General Motors (GM)

At this point it is not clear that GM (NYSE: GM) can get the money to merge with Chrysler. The plan would be to cut 50,000 people. That is a lot of severance. Closing plants and combining product lines cannot be done for free.

Chrysler has figured all of this out and has begun to focus on a partnership with Renault and Nissan, both of which are run by former auto whiz kid Carlos Ghosn. He has been trying to buy into the US market for several years without success. Now, he may have his chance.

If Ghosn can set up a deal where he takes a modest equity stake in Chrysler he may expand his reach into American for a small investment. According to The Wall Street Journal, “Chrysler would have a better chance of keeping much of its operations intact in an alliance with Nissan and Renault than in a merger with GM.”

The deal would not really make any sense and may simply be a way to push GM into a merger. While putting Chrysler into a marketing and product development pact with both a Japanese and European car manufacturer, the savings would be modest. Since Chrysler’s problems are huge cash losses and falling sales in North American it is hard to see how anything short of an outright merger with large cost cuts does the company any good.

But, there is sense of panic in Detroit which leads to grasping of straws. Panic clouds the mind. Chrysler could do a bad deal because it sees the options as better than no deal at all.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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