Archive for December 29th, 2008

Filed under: Industry, Apple Inc (AAPL), Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)

We’ve all watched as laptop PCs sold like hotcakes over the last few years and gradually take market share from the desktop PC. Customers are finding out that the computing power they need is plentifully supplied by an all-in-one portable laptop and the cables, desk space and noise of a desktop PC simply isn’t needed any longer.

For the first time, laptop PC sales outranked desktop PC sales during last quarter. Brands like Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ), Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Taiwan’s Acer sold an astounding 38.6 million portable PCs, compared with 38.5 million desktop units, according to research firm iSuppli.

HP continued dominating laptop PCs, with 18.8% of sales during the last quarter. Dell was quite a bit behind the leader with13.9% of sales. Acer took in 12.2% of sales. Although the desktop PC is far from dead, the consumer market is slowly abandoning them for cheap and powerful laptops as time goes by.

When is the last time you saw a perfectly-equipped laptop PC for under $600? Look in the ads from any Sunday newspaper — they are there. And, customers are buying them like crazy.

Laptop PCs outsell Desktop PCs for first time ever originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Newsletters, Technical Analysis, S and P 500, DJIA

Options and trading specialist David Nassar discusses an intriguing short-term trade based on seasonal patterms at the end of October. Here’s a look from his Marketwatch Options Trader.

“The global markets are still crashing, and a highly defensive approach remains warranted until very clear signs of stabilization take shape.

“Even if the broad market were to somehow stage a strong rally, we would expect a full retest of the lows, a few weeks out. Typically, October lows are retested in December (1974, 1987, 2002, et al).

“Despite this bearish outlook, we are recommending a ‘October seasonal trade.’ The seasonally most bullish period of the year is the end of October and the beginning of November.

“As a result, we usually try to trade this period for a rally. Given the above bearish market comments, you might think this strange, but understand that this is just a trade.

Continue reading Marketwatch expert highlights the ‘October seasonal’ trade

BloggingStocksMarketwatch expert highlights the ‘October seasonal’ trade originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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A great graph by EconomPicData shows just how much of the cash dolled out by Hank Paulson will actually remain in the system.  The bottom line?  From the $125 billion handed out to-date to the largest 9 banking institutions a mere $17 billion will go towards recapitalizing the system.  The rest?  Yup - bonuses and compensation.

My head just exploded.

From EconomPicData via Alternet:

It turns out that the nine banks about to be getting a total equity capital injection of $125 billion, courtesy of Phase I of The Bailout Plan, had reserved $108 billion during the first nine months of 2008 in order to pay for compensation and bonuses.

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: General Motors (GM), Politics, Financial Crisis

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) Chief Executive Rick Wagoner, the longest serving head of an automaker, is personally lobbying members of Congress to back a federal bailout of the struggling automaker, which wants to merge with its much weaker rival Chrysler LLC.

Bloomberg News, which broke the story, reported that Wagoner’s “involvement includes attending meetings, such as one with Treasury Department officials last week in Washington.” You can bet that Michigan’s powerful senior member of Congress, John Dingell, is attending many of the same meetings as Wagoner. GM no doubt is employing an army of lobbyists — both Republicans and Democrats — to press its case. The company, which for now may be the largest, has little choice.

GM and Chrysler would need between $10 billion and $12 billion to integrate their operations, according to a Citigroup note cited by Bloomberg. Combining the two fading industrial behemoths would be a logistical nightmare. Imagine trying to combine disparate systems for everything from personnel to purchasing to accounting. Let’s not forget the byzantine IT systems at both companies as well.

Economically, it’s hard to justify bailing out GM. Decades of incompetent management at the Big Three resulted in the industry drowning in billions of debt. The problem with telling the industry “no” is political. Dingell is a 1,000-pound gorilla in Congress. The auto industry continues to have considerable clout in Washington as well. Their argument is simple: if Wall Street fatcats can get a federal bailout, why not us?

The problem with rescuing Wall Street is that lots of struggling industries are going to pass the hat in Congress. What about the airlines? The retail sector? Pharmaceuticals? When does it end?

BloggingStocksCan GM CEO Rick Wagoner’s lobbying help land federal bailout? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Commodities, Oil, Recession

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Adam Warner:

Smarter minds than yours truly have noted that the oil ETF United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) is not the best bullish play on crude here. My understanding of the product is that USO owns futures, and must roll each cycle. And right now oil is in deep contango, which always sounds pornographic but actually just refers to the fact that there’s a particularly steep and upward sloped curve in the futures as you go out in time.

I’ll take their word for the contango part, but I’m not entirely sure why that necessarily will knock down USO. They’ll roll when they roll, and even if the spread is wide, won’t it then just depend on what happens in the next month AFTER the roll? I’m thinking out loud here, so if anyone has something enlightening to add on this topic, I am all ears.

I sold and am selling more Nov. puts anyway, so it should not matter a great deal from my standpoint. And I’m not sure I really have a great alternative if I want to do something bullish in oil options.

I don’t trade futures or futures options, and as far as pure oil there’s Super Double Ultra Octane Special (AMEX: DBO), which does not have liquid options.

There’s also Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DIG) and UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX: DUG), but those track energy stocks.

BloggingStocksPlaying oil with the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Oct 2008 14:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Good news reported by the New York Times. A consortium of private equity firms are close to finalizing a deal to buy IndyMac Bank from the FDIC for an undisclosed sum. The FDIC had to rewrite some rules to let the private equity firms put together the deal, but let’s go ahead and help the FDIC expedite that still-walking time-bomb off of the federal balance sheet.

From the Times:

The buyers include private equity firms J.C. Flowers & Company and Dune Capital Management and the hedge fund firm Paulson & Company, these people said.

The proposed deal is unusual because it is one of the first transactions involving unregulated private equity firms acquiring a bank holding company. Federal regulators have been locked in a heated battle throughout the credit crisis as banks continued to fail and private equity firms initially came to the rescue, but then backed off because of regulatory concerns.

In September, the Federal Reserve eased regulations to allow private equity firms and hedge funds to acquire portions of bank holding companies without being subject to undue regulation. Previously, a private equity firm that held more than 24.9 percent of a bank was required to register as a bank holding company and it restricts the investor’s ability to make investments outside of the banking industry.

Privatize the Risk

The IndyMac sale is good news because as we all know, IndyMac is a walking time-bomb of bad negative amortization and no-documentation liar loans waiting to happen.  With a loan underwriting process built in a similar fashion to those of WaMu and Countrywide (”a thin file is a good file”) they are up to their necks in loans that will continue to sour at an alarming rate.

Option ARM loans and no-doc Alt-A loans, those that made IndyMac famous, are typically set on a 5-year reset or recast period at which points payments balloon and defaults come pouring through the door.  The government is smart to get rid of this pig before it blows up.

The private equity firms are no-doubt getting a deal on the pricing of the assets; but since no one has any idea exactly how these loans are going to play out they are definitely playing russian roulette with their investors dollars.  But guess what?  I don’t care.  Because it’s not tax payer money (unless the FDIC has to get in and bail out the bank a second time).    This is how the market is supposed to work and I’m glad to see the bank go back to the private sector.

Will the US Taxpayers Recoup Their Expenses?

When the bank went under the LA Times reported that it would cost the FDIC between $4 and $8 billion for the government to seize and operate the bank.  CNN estimates that it will have cost $8.9 billion when all is said and done.   Will the sale recoup the costs that were incurred by the U.S. Taxpayer to keep this bank from folding?  I hope the answer is yes, but it looks like that won’t be the case.  The leading group is said to have raised only $2.5 billion for funds to invest in distressed banks. That the taxpayers have to subsidize this sale is unthinkable. And the joke that is the government’s bail out of Wall Street and greedy banking icons continues unabated.

The taxpayers should not have to eat the costs of this takeover that was necessitated by the malfeasance of the leaders of IndyMac bank and their careless financial alchemy.

The only solace we can take from having to shell out cash to keep this sucker afloat is that the future losses will (hopefully) come out of someone else’s pocket.

IndyMac Bank Can’t be Saved Again

The eyebrow-raising element of this sale is of course the private equity firms which until recently needed to subject themselves to additional regulatory oversight in order to poach on failing banks.  But the FDIC, seeing, shall-we-say, a lack of buyers in the market, decided to loosen the regs to give these suckers a chance to buy up the goods.  But this begs an important question.  Will the FDIC step in again if these private firms fail in their turn around effort?

Of course they will, because it is still a depository bank.  I just hope that should these private equity firms fail in their gamble (and they will in the next 2-3 years unless they’ve got deeper pockets than we know) we (the taxpayers) will not be saddled with more bad debt and a bank in worse shape than it is now.  I hope that these private equity firms have enough skin in the game that they can’t just play scientists and turn a heaping pile of banking mess back to the FDIC at the first sign of trouble.  But, alas, I imagine they will.

Source [blownmortgage]

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