Archive for July, 2009


Bankruptcy, foreclosure, bad debt used to be all four letter words. Not any more, defaulting on loans, mortgages and promises is happening so often it has nearly become acceptable. Obviously there are situations where there is nothing we can do and bankruptcy and foreclosure are the only viable way. However in many if not most of the situations they don’t have to be the only way out. The issue is that many people choose to opt out just because their home is no longer the dream investment it once was. It is attitudes like that, that are behind the fragility of our credit system, a promise to pay is not always worth that much if it is no longer profitable.

It is not only the moral implications that make unnecessary foreclosures and bankruptcies wrong. Although they might often seem like the easy way out they are rarely the best way out. It is much better to use debt management to face mortgage and loan issues than just giving up at the first hiccup.

As mentioned above this comment is not meant for families and households that truly can’t pay their home mortgage or have fallen in a cycle of debt they cannot get out from.

So how can you avoid bankruptcy with debt management?

Debt management refers to the methods used to control, limit and reduce debt. This can be done in a variety of ways:
Debt reduction.
Talk to your bank and ask for a debt reduction. This is by no means a fail sure approach but banks will in some cases offer help and debt breaks to people who come out in the open and explain a bad financial situation before missing payments. The key is to talk sooner rather than later and to present your case in a way that shows that you really want to find a solution that will benefit both of you. This option will only be attractive to banks if their security on your loan is not high and they would lose more money if they simply foreclose your debt.
Loan Modification.
Loan modification or home mortgage refinancing can be a great way to reduce your monthly bills and even the overall cost of your mortgage. The key here is to make sure the cost of your refinancing is not higher than the savings or the benefits you receive from the loan modification. Understanding the real cost of your loan mod can be sometimes complicated so it pays to find good advice and information. This site has many articles on this issue.
The main loan modifications you can apply for are interest rate reduction and loan tenure increase.

You can find a home mortgage interest rate reduction by either approaching your current bank or finding a competing lender that is willing to reduce the interest rate. If you have found a better deal it is often a good idea to give your bank a chance to match or improve the offer. Banks are often willing to reduce their interest to keep good customers. As we have said before, please make sure you understand the full cost of a loan or mortgage modification before you go through with it. Clauses included in the original mortgage can make the loan modification uneconomic.

Related posts:

  1. Debt management, art of making the best of a bad situation
  2. Common pitfalls of debt consolidation you must avoid.
  3. What does no-cost loan refinancing cost you

Related posts:

  1. Debt management, art of making the best of a bad situation
  2. Common pitfalls of debt consolidation you must avoid.
  3. What does no-cost loan refinancing cost you

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Private equity, Blackstone Group L.P (BX), Initial public offerings

Over the past few months, the IPO market has been perking up. And, with the recent surge in equities, the good times should continue, right?

Well, not necessarily. The fact is that investors are scrutinizing deals. Just look at yesterday’s IPO of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE: PMT). In the offering, the company raised about $335 million. However, the goal was to get about $750 million. In other words, there was lots of investor pushback. Actually, on its first day of trading, the shares of PennyMac fell 4.5% to $19.10.

The company is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that is purchasing mortgages — at discounts — and trying to turn a profit. At the same time, PennyMac wants to get federal government support, such as from the loan modification programs. Oh, and the company also has notable backers that include BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) and Highfields Capital Management.

Continue reading PennyMac launches lifeless IPO

PennyMac launches lifeless IPO originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Jul 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Cisco Systems (CSCO), Motorola (MOT), Walt Disney (DIS), Analyst initiations

Analyst upgrades:

  • Morgan Keegan upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Outperform from Market Perform due to the increased visibility of Android-based launches, as well as the stock’s valuation.
  • OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Citigroup, which cited the company’s stabilizing sales trend, accelerating share gains, and valuation.
  • Kaufman Bros. upgraded iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT) to Buy from Hold on valuation.
  • Cancaccord upgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Buy from Hold citing the turnaround in the aluminum business and its exposure to copper.
  • Wells Fargo upgraded Smith & Nephew (NYSE: SNN) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  • BT Group (NYSE: BT) was upgraded to Neutral from Reduce by Nomura.
  • Societe Generale raised L’Oreal (OTC: LRLCY) to Buy from Sell.
  • Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by Sandler O’Neill.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DIS, CSCO, K, MOT, OMX, RTP …

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: DIS, CSCO, K, MOT, OMX, RTP … originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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With any more spinning we would be in a financial carousel.  New home sales data was released on Monday and showed a “whopping” increase in sales.  This is the primary headline on all mainstream reports.  Little is mentioned that the median price of a new home fell to $206,200 in June from $219,000 in May […]

With any more spinning we would be in a financial carousel.  New home sales data was released on Monday and showed a “whopping” increase in sales.  This is the primary headline on all mainstream reports.  Little is mentioned that the median price of a new home fell to $206,200 in June from $219,000 in May (small caveat).  A drop of over $13,000 in one month apparently is not important enough to discuss.

This is pure economics with prices falling you will expect new home sales to increase especially in the spring and summer months which are normally stronger.  So even if we may be reaching a bottom nationwide in terms of months of inventory the coming wave of Alt-A and option ARM toxic waste will guarantee that we have years of pricing pressure on the downside.  In the last 2 weeks, the S&P 500 has rallied by over 11 percent.  What would constitute an above average year in terms of gains was accomplished in two weeks.  Not because of spectacular earnings but because people want to believe in the financial idols of Wall Street.  Mixed earnings is not reason enough for this massive rally but Wall Street as you may have noticed does not reflect main street reality.

Let us however focus on housing.  The increase in sales is good but is largely being driven by massive price discounts and foreclosures which dominate in many markets including California:

new-homes

A couple of things we should highlight.  Existing home sales make up the bulk of sales at any given point.  Existing home sales look like they have stabilized but keep in mind that 30 to 40 percent of all homes sold for the past few months have been foreclosure resales (in California the number is more like 40 to 50 percent).  So prices have been falling like a lead balloon and we have yet to experience the Alt-A and option ARM hit that will take down more prime locations in areas in California but also in places like Florida.  The next thing to understand is historical context.  The jump in new home sales is largely a price driven jump based on tax incentives and a deep cut in prices.  Even with that, you can see from the chart above that the jump merely highlights that we aren’t starring into the abyss.  Yet this increase does not mean happy days are around the corner.  It is simply a reflection that housing prices aren’t going to fall to zero yet many market observers somehow think we are back on solid ground.  What about rising unemployment?  Over $3 trillion in commercial real estate debt?  State budget deficits?  All minor trifles to the Wall Street crowd.  You have many states like California with budget deficits that are being patched up for the short-term but will only solve the issues on a temporary basis.

The headline on Monday should read:

“New home sales increase because of steep price cuts.”

But that would be honest reporting.  There is nothing more distressing to the housing market than foreclosures.  And nationwide foreclosures are still in record territory:

nationwide foreclosures

What we are seeing is foreclosures keeping a lid on any sort of pricing power on the upside.  Foreclosures are the kryptonite to any housing recovery.  And until the foreclosure situation stabilizes, it is much too premature to call a housing bottom especially in a state like California.  As we have highlighted, the foreclosures are now starting to hit higher priced homes in more prime locations like:

Santa Monica , Culver City , Palms , Rancho Park

And much of this has to do with the Alt-A and option ARM wave that is now striking.  Let us first take an overall look at the California housing market:

california housing data

year-home-built

First, 76 percent of owner-occupied homes have a mortgage.  This is higher than national data which comes in at 68 percent.  Also, there isn’t a large amount of newly built homes in the state.  In many of the prime areas homes are multiple decades old; in some cases homes were built prior to the Great Depression.  So the dynamics of the California housing market are unique.  But what is also important is to look at the makeup of those 5,381,874 mortgages.  Let us dig deeper:

Subprime loans still active in CA:       345,505

Average balance:         $321,745

Alt-A loans still active in CA:            632,215

Average balance:         $443,223

Total toxic mortgages still active:       977,720

This is where you should take pause.  18 percent of all current mortgages in California are toxic waste or near toxic waste.  That is a gigantic number.  This isn’t including the many jumbo “prime” mortgages out in the market which are equally at risk.  So when we talk about the Alt-A and option ARM tsunami this is what we are talking about.  The only place you will find a new home in California for $200,000 is out in the Inland Empire or Central Valley but those areas unfortunately are facing massive economic problems.  The state itself is in tatters but these areas are reeling.  That is the new home market for California and it is a small subset.

And the home vacancy rate for California is still trending higher:

ca-vacancy

The vacancy rate is the highest it’s ever been for California since data was first tracked starting in 1985.  So that trend is unmistakable.  This is in large part due to the massive amount of foreclosures the state is seeing (or not seeing depending on how lenders are hoarding inventory).  Either way, the data is rather telling.  California home prices will be falling for mid to upper priced regions in the upcoming months.  But don’t expect to read that in the headlines.

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Post from: Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

977,000 Mortgages in California are Toxic Waste: The Misleading Headline Numbers and New Home Sales Increase because of a $13,000 Price cut.

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Filed under: Earnings reports, Level 3 Communications (LVLT)

This morning, Level 3 Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) confessed to a second-quarter loss of $134 million, or 8 cents per share, roughly tripling its year-ago loss of $42 million, or 3 cents per share. Revenue for the period slipped 12% to $942 million. The results were mixed, as far as analysts’ expectations were concerned; Wall Street was looking for a slightly wider quarterly loss of 9 cents per share on more robust revenue of $959.4 million.

“The economy continued to be challenging in the second quarter for wireline service providers,” said James Crowe, the company’s CEO. “As expected, sequential revenue pressure continued in the second quarter, although at a significantly moderated rate. We did see improvements in sales and churn, however, they were not as much as we expected.”

Continue reading Level 3 Communications stumbles after slashing guidance

Level 3 Communications stumbles after slashing guidance originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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There is nothing harder than helping someone who doesn’t think they need help. That statement is certainly true for borrowers and debt relief. We live in such a crazy consumerist society that sometimes we don’t realize when we are living beyond our means and are in need of urgent help. Like an anorexic teenager we can look into the mirror and see a financially healthy person while we are really killing ourselves. How can you tell if you are in serious need of debt relief?

We are going to mention a number of signs that will tell you that you need urgent help. Obviously these are not set rules but more like a general ballpark of financial safety you must try to stay within.

1) You have no savings. We live in a spend first pay later culture, not a save now buy later culture. This mentality increases the chances of financial problems and reduces the value of things that can be purchases on a whim and on which we must often pay interest for years. Many governments are trying to fight this attitude by encouraging people to save. A good rule of thumb is to save at least 10% of your income.

2) You only make minimum payments on your credit cards. Uncontrolled spending on credit cards can be one of the fastest routes to bankruptcy. Spending money you can’t see and don’t have to pay back in a hurry is a great recipe for financial bankruptcy. It is important to pay for your credit cards before they accrue interest or to use credit cards as an emergency ONLY and use other financial products like loans, equity loans and other options for borrowing. Paying minimal credit card payments is a silly path to everlasting loans that you end up never paying.

3) You don’t check your statements and don’t know exactly how much you owe. As we mentioned in our previous article fear often breeds on ignorance and when we are fearful we sometimes hide behind our ignorance as if it were a shield. Understanding our situation is the first step to fixing it.

4) You have more than 3 major credit cards. There is really no need for various credit cards when you are not leaving beyond your means, one or two are more than enough. It is a slippery slope when we start relying on credit cards to get to the end of the month, buy things we can’t afford and eventually to pay the interest of other credit cards.

None of these situations is final or hopeless. However action is required to avoid the problems that bad financial habits can cause you. Finding the right advice and sticking it can be the difference between bankruptcy and financial security.

Related posts:

  1. Credit Cards, Debt Relief And Bad Choices
  2. Common pitfalls of debt consolidation you must avoid.
  3. So What Is A Debt Consolidation And Is It A Good Idea For You?

Related posts:

  1. Credit Cards, Debt Relief And Bad Choices
  2. Common pitfalls of debt consolidation you must avoid.
  3. So What Is A Debt Consolidation And Is It A Good Idea For You?

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: International markets, Coca-Cola (KO), China, Newsletters, Stocks to Buy

“Not surprisingly, Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) has been placing particular emphasis on China, where there is plenty of untapped potential,” says Paul Tracy in his StreetAuthority Market Advisor.

“Like most companies that have been around for well over a century, Coca-Cola operates in a relatively mature industry.

“Domestically, per-capita soft-drink consumption has plateaued and domestic volume growth is generally tough to come by.

“The story is quite different for many overseas markets, which now account for about 75% of the firm’s sales. Coke isn’t the world’s most recognized brand for nothing — consumers in 200 countries around the globe gulp down about 1.6 billion servings of its beverages every single day.

Continue reading Coca-Cola (KO) targets China

Coca-Cola (KO) targets China originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Via [bloggingstocks]

Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer experience, Middle East, Money and Finance Today, Oil, Recession, Financial Crisis

falling oil pricesWhen we looked at oil prices yesterday, we noted that the market was going to pay close attention to today’s inventory report from the Depart of Energy.

Oil was already weak after yesterday’s report on consumer confidence, and today’s oil inventory report showed a much larger than expected increase in oil inventories, pushing prices sharply lower.

Continue reading Oil prices drop sharply on inventory report

Oil prices drop sharply on inventory report originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 29 Jul 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The media organizations are abuzz with bad information this morning.

  • CNN: Home price index up for 1st time in 3 years
  • Wall St. Journal: Home Prices Post Monthly Increase
  • Financial Times: US home prices rise in May

What they all said was that month-to-month prices rose 0.5%, according to Standard & Poor’s and Case-Shiller. Coming on the heals of yesterday’s stories about a third straight month of increased home sales, this would seem to be very important. And it would have been – if it had been true.

When Case-Schiller reports they first put out a raw set of numbers and then a seasonally adjusted set (sales go up in the fall, down in winter, etc.). I suspect these stories were based on the first set of numbers. In the non-adjusted number, the 20-city composite index actually went up 0.6%! Unfortunately adjust for the seasons and they decreased by 0.22% Seasonally adjusted prices fell in 12 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities.

(While the WSJ did update its story, it hasn’t changed the headline – leading to very confusing reading.)

The fact that even a half-a-percent improvement in prices caused reporters to get all hot and bothered shows exactly how desperate we are for anything resembling good economic news. Look at how CNN tried to put lipstick on this pig: “On an annual basis, home prices in the 20 cities fell 17.1%, but it was the fourth straight month that the year-over-year decline lessened.” Break out the champagne!

While it is undoubtedly a good time to buy a house, it is still a very tough time to sell one and no amount of spin will change that.

Related posts:

  1. Case-Shiller shows no end to home price declines
  2. Is drop in home values nearing terminal velocity?
  3. Finally some good news for home sellers

Related posts:

  1. Case-Shiller shows no end to home price declines
  2. Is drop in home values nearing terminal velocity?
  3. Finally some good news for home sellers

Source [blownmortgage]

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