Archive for July 19th, 2009

Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Economic data

The earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting a parade of companies reporting profit declines in the just completed quarter. That includes more financials, such as American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK), M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB), Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ: NTRS), State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT), US Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC). On the other hand, Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC), Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF), and Zions Bancorp. (NASDAQ: ZION) are expected to post losses.

This week’s anticipated earnings decliners also include tech companies such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Lexmark International Inc. (NYSE: LXK), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is expected to post a loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Earnings crunch expected to reveal lots of lower profits

The week in preview: Earnings crunch expected to reveal lots of lower profits originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 19 Jul 2009 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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What poses the greater threat to homeowners during the current mortgage crisis, predatory mortgage modification companies or the costs of hiring an attorney to represent them during the modification or foreclosure process?

According to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, lawyers’ retainers and fees represent the greatest threat to homeowners. Over the weekend he demanded  state legislature include a clause prohibiting attorneys from accepting retainers for performing legal services to prevent foreclosures in SB 64 if they wanted him to sign the bill into California law.

SB 64 is intended to protect homeowners from mortgage modification companies. It seems that preventing homeowners from retaining legal representation to work on their behalf would not constitute protecting the homeowner. Of course, to give the Governor the benefit of the doubt, his intent in demanding the clause may be to assure all homeowners are able to retain counsel whether they can afford it or not.

At issue is whether eliminating retainers or allowing lawyers representing homeowners during the mortgage modification process to receive payment or security deposits upfront will effectively limit their ability to represent their clients. According to Martin Andleman of ML-Implode this is exactly the effect this will have.

“SB 04 will essentially deny homeowners their right to counsel guaranteed by the 5th and 14th Amendments, by making it so that no lawyer would be able to take on such a client,” Andleman explained.

The National Association of consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys (NACBA) agrees, saying “While there have been a very few law firms implicated in loan modification abuses, adequate legal recourse against bad actors in our profession already exists, including disbandment and criminal prosecution for fraud. Because other fly-by-night scammers can pack up and move on to greener pastures on very short notice and don’t have a bar license to lose, it is understandable why consumer advocates would seek protections for consumers against those predators. However, placing blanket retainer restrictions on attorneys whom consumers may need to represent them is an unconscionable effort to interfere with their legal rights.”

The simple fact is, retainers are a standard business practice for attorneys. Retainers assure  lawyers that they will be paid for their services at the time they are rendered, something that is particularly important in situations like mortgage modifications which can take months to resolve or may be over in a matter of weeks.

In addition, the possibility exists that lawyers may not get paid for the work they do on mortgage modifications if they have to wait until the process is complete. Loan modifications are not the solution to every financial problem homeowners encounter. In fact, some homeowners may still end up losing their home to foreclosure or filing for bankruptcy after their mortgage is modified raising serious questions regarding how attorneys would be paid in these circumstances. Also, consumer filing bankruptcy commonly consult attorneys during that process and it makes no sense for consumers not to have the same protections while trying to prevent bankruptcy.

“Homeowners are scared, emotional, unknowledgeable and panicked when at risk of losing their homes,” said Andleman. “For the government to support a position that they should go to their lender alone is criminal. It is the worst abuse of power I’ve seen in my lifetime.”

If consumers do not benefit from the elimination of retainers, the question must be asked: who does? The obvious answer is lenders and mortgage servicers who will be more likely to be dealing directly with homeowners rather than attorneys. This gives lenders a distinct advantage in negotiations. Beyond the favorable terms lenders are likely to insist on before agreeing to modify a mortgage there are also the fees banks will collect. Data collected by the federal government indicates banks will earn $38 billion in fees this year and that’s just from overdraft fees. Imagine what else might be hidden in the fine print.

When you dig a little deeper it becomes obvious that the clause eliminating retainers in SB 94 is just not in the best interest of homeowners. It may even prove to be instrumental in prolonging the current crisis rather than shortening it. As with so much in this crisis it is “buyer beware”.

“The modifications that the loan servicers are offering homeowners, if they will even talk to them, are short term fixes that will leave the homeowners facing foreclosure at a later date,” said Alan Jablonski, a Long Beach, CA based consumer tights attorney and author of “Successfully Navigating the Mortgage Maze”.

Related posts:

  1. California trys to deter loan modification and foreclosure rescue scams
  2. Bucking the mortgage modification trends
  3. More Modification Efforts On The Way

Related posts:

  1. California trys to deter loan modification and foreclosure rescue scams
  2. Bucking the mortgage modification trends
  3. More Modification Efforts On The Way

Source [blownmortgage]

It is bad enough that we have legally sanctioned bank robbery being perpetrated by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve punting the U.S. Dollar off the financial edge in Wile E. Coyote fashion. The U.S. Treasury, FDIC, and Federal Reserve are greasing their gears for the obnoxiously named private-public investment program that will start […]

It is bad enough that we have legally sanctioned bank robbery being perpetrated by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve punting the U.S. Dollar off the financial edge in Wile E. Coyote fashion. The U.S. Treasury, FDIC, and Federal Reserve are greasing their gears for the obnoxiously named private-public investment program that will start buying “legacy assets”, what we all know as nuclear waste mortgages.  The FBI put out a report highlighting mortgage fraud for 2008 and as you may have guessed it, is rampant with cases of blatant fraud, shows deep corruption, and goes well beyond the “few bad apples” theory.  The FBI found a boatload of scams, gimmicks, and brazen fraud that would make any sensible regulator faint (that is, if anyone was paying attention).  We are also seeing a good number of first payment defaults on government backed loans which really should put a break on government backed loans instead of putting our foot on the mortgage gas.

In the publication the FBI found that Suspicious Activity Reports (SAR) for 2008 shot up by 36 percent to 63,713 for the 2008 fiscal year.  The report tells us that the actual figure of mortgage fraud is unknown but we all know it is pervasive given that it is latched onto the back of American banking and also has a crew of cronies on Wall Street operating it as if they were maneuvering a remote controlled financial drone.  It is fascinating that the FBI also mentioned those pesky “legacy assets” of Alt-A and Option ARM loans:

“While the amount of mortgage fraud cannot be precisely determined, industry experts agree that there is a direct correlation between fraud and distressed real estate markets. As the housing market continued to decline in response to an increase in housing inventories, lack of sales, and new foreclosures surface, to include a wave of Alt-A and Option ARM loans due to reset beginning in April 2009, real estate values softened, and fraud reporting increased throughout 2008.”

Let us map out this relationship:

mortgage fraud cases

The argument is that as the housing bubble imploded, many people got more and more desperate in their actions.  This is true.  However, I would argue that fraud was also rampant during the earlier stages of the housing bubble but much of this was masked by the ever inflating housing market.  Much of it was never detected because most people were in a trance drinking from the cup of housing mania thus passing on their fraud to another would be player.  Subprime, near prime, and prime loans were being pumped out of the market like pancakes.

The analysis is important because it has a significant impact on what we can expect for the next few years in the California housing market.  California is in a fiscal disaster with a $26.3 billion budget deficit and our state government is even more dysfunctional than your high school associated student body.  The reason this matters is the state with the highest level of mortgage fraud (we’re talking about FBI labeled fraud) is California.  Let us highlight that all those bazooka happy Alt-A and option ARM products are labeled as “legacy assets” and don’t constitute fraud but I would definitely put much of these items in that category.  Since I would suspect most of you are law abiding, here is a list of mortgage fraud listed in the report:

(1)  Property flipping

(2)  Builder Bailouts

(3)  Short sales

(4)  Foreclosure rescues

(5)  Reverse mortgage fraud

(6)  Credit enhancements (not to be confused with male-enhancement)

(7)  Condo conversion

(8)  Loan modifications

(9)  Pump and pay

I’ll go into detail a little bit further in the article how these frauds were executed in the market.  Let us first look at the SAR chart:

sar-chart

What you’ll see here is that already for fiscal year 2009, cases are going to eclipse the 2008 figures.  Yet it is the case that many fraud areas like short sale fraud never really bloomed during the bubble because there was no need for short sale fraud.  All you needed to do was find another sucker and unload the property with toxic mortgages which were liberally being dished out by banks fully sanctioned by the Wall Street crony machine.  As you would expect with housing values plunging, the amount of losses associated with fraud is also exploding:

sar-losses

Of course, not only is California pumping out IOUs but is also the award winning recipient for most active SAR mortgage fraud cases:

fraud-cases

This probably doesn’t come as a surprise to many of you.  Much of this fraud is now being exposed by the imploding real estate bubble known as the California housing market.  It baffles me how some people in the state are able to put aside the Alt-A and option ARM data, the fact that the state is fiscally insolvent, the record breaking 11.5 percent unemployment, and with a straight face say “we are at a bottom.”  In addition, I have read on more than one occasion on what many would consider fiscally prudent financial blogs where people pinch pennies and dollar cost average into the stock market preaching the ways of the tortoise.  Yet in some cases, these people for whatever reason (i.e., wife/husband wants home, new baby, we need a pool, my cat needs his own room, etc) bought near or close to the peak in California in the mid to upper priced areas!  This one simple act negates years and years of financial prudence.  It baffles the mind but people aren’t robots and sometimes psychology throws a lasso around their common sense and drags them down into wonderland.

To dig deeper in the data, world renowned Los Angeles, my home city, is the top offender in mortgage fraud:

los angeles

Well at least the Lakers brought a championship home this year.  I have to add a caveat here as well and that is the L.A. county region is one of the largest MSAs in the country so the data does skew but make no mistake, fraud is off the charts.  And as we all know, a declining market puts people in desperate situations and all you need to do is look at the top foreclosure areas in the U.S.:

top-foreclosure-markets

California dominates the chart with 4 of the top 10 foreclosure rate areas.  Keep in mind this is by a percent of housing units so this does reflect actual severity in a more proportionate perspective.  Florida tries to wrestle the foreclosure king crown away from us with 3 top areas.  Yet these figures are astounding.  Nearly 10 percent of all housing units in Stockton California are in foreclosure!  That is simply nuts.  Makes you wonder how many Alt-A and option ARM products are out there.  Anyone with an Alt-A loan in this region has the same probability of paying their mortgage on recast as California learning to live within its means.

But let us stop focusing on the awesome foursome of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida for a minute.  Many other states have decided that they are now going to jump on the bandwagon.  Many of these states I would suspect are seeing foreclosures because of California equity giant types taking money out of state and trying to imitate Donald Trump in these other markets.  Take a look at the diversity in the chart:

biggest-jumps

Keep in mind some of these areas like Texas and South Carolina had minor appreciation compared to other parts of the country.  This jump is showing how this housing bubble disaster is now spreading to even parts of the country that had little to do with the housing bubble.

That is the back drop of the mortgage fraud environment.  Let us now look at the kind of frauds out there.
Reverse Mortgage Fraud

This type of fraud is especially deplorable because it targets the elderly:

“Unscrupulous loan officers, mortgage companies, investors, loan counselors, appraisers, builders, developers, and real estate agents are exploiting Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECMs)-also known as reverse mortgages-to defraud senior citizens. They recruit seniors through local churches, investment seminars, television, radio, billboard, and mailer advertisements, to commit the fraud primarily through equity theft, foreclosure rescue, and investment schemes.”

In essence, the fraud goes like this:

-Identify a distressed property

-Purchase property with straw buyer by lying on loan application that home will be a primary residence

-Recruit seniors to buy home from straw buyer

-After senior is in home for 60 days, they obtain a HECM with fraudulent appraisals

-Encourage seniors to take lump sum

As the FBI notes, with a baby boomer population now entering retirement, this fraud has a lot of attraction with criminals.

Credit Enhancement Schemes

This is basically the “you don’t have any money but your rich uncle does!” scheme:

“Credit enhancement schemes may take various forms. In the most basic scheme, a loan officer and home builders are taking measures to encourage borrowers to have their names added to the bank accounts of friends or family members temporarily to circumvent the underwriting process to show that they have sufficient deposits on hand.”

Desperate and corrupt many in the housing industry are now trying to create their own methods of nothing down or ways of gaming the system.  If you haven’t noticed, these cases of fraud hinge on getting loan approval.  Loans that are now more and more backed by the government.  That is why I simply do not understand why we are offering tax credits and trying to encourage home buying when the system is being gamed.  Here in California we are doing another foreclosure moratorium which gives servicers $1,000 per modified loan.  What a waste of money.  Credit enhancement schemes are toxic and have a fancy name like legacy assets.

Builder-Bailout - Pump and Pay

Desperate builders in your favorite states are figuring out ways to game the system and inflating housing prices is one of them.

“Builders in Florida, North Carolina, California, Texas, and various other locations throughout the United States are working with co-conspirators to inflate the appraised value of their properties. This false equity is distributed to the perpetrators and disguised as set-asides for future maintenance, insurances, and tax payments on the property.”

Good times right?  What do you expect from a corrupt industry being fueled by an even more corrupt Wall Street?  They pump and dump stocks on you so why not pump and dump properties?

Foreclosure Rescue Schemes

This crap is extremely prevalent here in California especially in poorer areas.  I have seen absurd flyers which reek of fraud.  This kind of fraud is despicable because basically people are praying on those who are losing their home or are in financial trouble.  As we know, 90 percent of the cases are as simple as, “unfortunately, you should stop paying and focus on finding a rental.”  That is it.  Yet these crooks tell homeowners about fantastic modifications and other hyperbole when in fact, they are only lining their pockets.  In some cases, they tell the borrower to send money directly to them and , “they’ll send the payment to the bank for you.”  Before they know it, the borrowers realize that nothing has been sent to the bank and they are even in worse financial shape.

The FBI has also seen a rise in another type of foreclosure rescue, arson.  This is probably as blatant as you get.  Many people committing arson need to watch CSI for a couple of episodes and realize that no, fire doesn’t hide all evidence.

Foreclosure Rescue - Loan Modification Program Schemes

As I have argued before, loan modifications are an absolute joke and are actually going to create more losses in comparison to doing nothing.  In a case of Murphy’s Law, here we have the logical extension which is a scam:

“Loan modification schemes, typically in the form or an advance-fee/foreclosure rescue scheme, are emerging as recent vulnerabilities in HERA and EESA legislation (see second text box) becomes apparent. Lenders are mandated by recent legislation to work with homeowners to assist them in keeping their homes out of foreclosure; however, individuals are perpetrating advance-fee schemes to generate income from victim homeowners. Perpetrators solicit homeowners with mail flyers offering to help them stop the foreclosure process on their homes. Homeowners are falsely told that their mortgages would be renegotiated, their monthly payments would be reduced, and delinquent loan amounts would be renegotiated to the principle. Perpetrators require an up-front fee ranging from $1,500 to $5,000 from homeowners to participate in the loan-modification program. Perpetrators often request that the victim homeowners stop payments and communication with their lender. When victims receive delinquency and foreclosure notices, the perpetrators convince them that the loan was renegotiated, but that the lender needs a good faith payment to secure the new account.”

This is the problem when you have the government and Wall Street praising the virtue of loan modifications when in reality, all they are doing is converting qualifying loans into option ARMs.  This is ultimately kicking the can down the road but as you can see, many in the public hear “loan modification” and think they are going to get a sweet deal.  These scammers play on this and here we go with just another scam.  That $1,500 or $5,000 could be used to secure a more stable rental but god forbid the government encourage people to rent who simply cannot afford to own a home.

Other scams include serial property flipping and short sale scams.  The bottom line is fraud is rampant throughout the country.  People not only have to be vigilant of the legal scams that are being put out there with loan modifications but now have to watch out for shysters trying to make a fast dime.

To put the icing on the cake, take a look at this story:

“(CNN)  25 charged in $100 million mortgage fraud

The D.A.’s office described a “particularly brazen sham transaction” where one of the suspects, Stephen Martini, allegedly wrote up a bogus appraisal of $500,000 for a two-family home, but “in reality, the location was a vacant lot.”

Just another day in the crony neighborhood.

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Post from: Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

Mortgage Fraud Report - Burn after Modifying: FBI Finds Rampant and Deep Fraud in Real Estate Industry. Guess What State Ranks #1? IOU All-Star California.

Via [DrHousingBubble]

Filed under: Crocs Inc (CROX)

crocs stock, croxDoes anyone here remember Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX)?

It seems like only yesterday that you’d walk down the street and everywhere you looked, you saw those horribly ugly $30 sandals that were going to change the world.

Well, as it turned out, Crocs didn’t change the world. They were just a fad. Crocs are nothing more than this decade’s version of the hula hoop, the pet rock, Members Only jackets or the dearly beloved eight-track tape.

The Washington Post recently looked at the decline and fall of Crocs.

The colorful foam clogs appeared in 2002, just as the country was recovering from a recession. Brash and bright, they were a cheap investment (about $30) that felt good and promised to last forever. Former president George W. Bush wore them. Aerosmith lead singer Steven Tyler wore them. Your grandma wore them. They roared along with the economy, mocked by the fashion world but selling 100 million pairs in seven years.

In the space of about 16 months, shares of CROX jumped 600%! The stock did even better than Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) — and no one had to bail them out. Now class, that brings me to today’s investing lesson: How to know when you’ve made the dumbest investing mistake in the world.

Continue reading The decline and fall of Crocs

The decline and fall of Crocs originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Jul 2009 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Avoid Foreclosure With A Personalized Home Loan Modification

Foreclosure has turned from being a four letter word so taboo it was barely mentioned to a common feature of life we have nearly got used to. Can we avoid foreclosure? Or is the common household doomed to foreclose and buy again depending on the economic climate?
Well although economic pressures can sometimes cause irreversible damage to a family’s income and resources making foreclosure the only way out this does not have to be the general rule. There are steps we can make at every stage of economic hardship to try to avoid the “f word”.

The first fact that we must understand is that nobody likes a foreclosure, banks don’t like them, the government hates them and you and I certainly don’t want anything to do with it. All this begs the question; if everyone hates a foreclosure why have them? The same question could be applied to wars, famine, violence and the answer may be similar. Often one or more of the parties involved simply don’t have the will to continue working towards a positive outcome.

Well, enough generalities and poetic comparisons what can a real family or individual do to avoid foreclosure.

Step 1. Don’t buy a house outside of your means. Obviously if you already own the house this advice comes a little late but for any new home buyers it is great advice to not be swallowed up by the temptation of paying more than you can afford for a house. A good rule of thumb is to not pay more than  30% of your income on your home. This gives you a little bit of a safety net if things go bad and the opportunity of saving a portion of your income for a rainy day.

Step 2. Control spending. Be ruthless. If income and expenditure are not tallying take control of your budget and keep to it.

Step 3. Talk to your bank as soon as possible. Banks hate foreclosures because they more often than not lose money and it is not what they prefer to be doing. They are not estate agents they are banks that want to be making money by lending and investing not sweating the details with a bad house sale. If you approach them before your credit is in the dirt and you provide them with a plan they will try and work with you.
Options open to your bank you might apply for are payment holidays for a determined amount of time if you have evidence that your income situation will change in the future, or a full on loan modification. Remember these modification actually make more money for your bank. What do you think they will prefer, foreclosure or a making more money on your mortgage?

Loan modifications come in a large variety of colors and shades. You can modify your loan to last longer which will make your monthly payments lower. Imagine you owe your bank $1,000 and you need to pay it in three months, $333 and you can’t afford it, so you ask the bank if you can pay the same amount in ten months making it a much more affordable monthly payment of $100. The only glitch with this option is that you end up paying more interest. Another option is to change your mortgage provider to one that is willing to charge you a lower interest. This is a great option that is often combined with a larger mortgage (not a good idea in most cases) and a lengthening of the loan’s tenure (also expensive in interest), the only problem is that changing mortgage providers or even just changing interest rates if your bank is willing to renegotiate terms is often a lengthy process.
The thing to remember is that there are options, the ones we have discussed are just a sample. Talk to your bank or even with a financial adviser and study what options you have, just don’t give up.

Related posts:

  1. Fighting Foreclosure, What Are Your Home Loan Refinancing Options
  2. Avoid Foreclosure with these 7 alternatives
  3. Falling behind on your mortgage payments? Here are 7 options you need to know about to avoid foreclosure.

Related posts:

  1. Fighting Foreclosure, What Are Your Home Loan Refinancing Options
  2. Avoid Foreclosure with these 7 alternatives
  3. Falling behind on your mortgage payments? Here are 7 options you need to know about to avoid foreclosure.

Source [blownmortgage]

Filed under: Forecasts, Good news, Products and services, Money and Finance Today, Economic data, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis

new home constructionWe get a second piece of positive news out of the housing industry in as many days today as the Commerce Department announced this morning that new home construction jumped 3.6% in June.

No one is going to put forth the argument that the housing market is all of a sudden in good shape again, but we are starting to see signs that things could be at least leveling off, which is the first step that needs to be made.

Continue reading June housing construction makes unexpected jump

June housing construction makes unexpected jump originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Safeway Inc (SWY), Stocks to Buy

This was a complex call, but I’m Reiterating my Buy rating for Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) first recommended on February 20, 2009 at a price of $20.90.

Safeway is likely to continue to benefit from rising food demand for cheaper food, as the pronounced recession in California — one of the states hardest hit by the housing downturn — compels citizens to belt-tighten and seek less expensive food options. The FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for SWY are $2.11 to $2.29.

Continue reading Safeway: Upside potential remains

Safeway: Upside potential remains originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 17 Jul 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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